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This article is in response to some developments reported as of the end of the first week of February.. The article covers some of this thesis and brings it to light in what is a more dramatic revolving trend.
In light of the most recent U.S. jobs report, I think the fact that tame jobs data leaving the central banks pat on interest rates is a moot point. If you are serious about market plays, I don’t think interest rates are the thing at this rate… what should be obvious is that markets are imbalanced, and they could remain that way, violently so. Although equity markets are a glorious pinnacle, it’s the equivalent of staring at a shiny iceberg, in my opinion. In other words, it should be appreciated as a guide for direction, and not be an attraction.
The concession being made by retail crowds for what will be a volatile market, offers little discount for investment returns. The idea that interest rates are low, and therefore the stock market should spur itself on is a dangerous premise. Also, the idea that markets are due for a correction, giving rise to short bets is only marginally profitable. Not a good investment thesis to have…
Any de-leveri…
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Beto avatar
Beto 12 Feb.

So, what are your final conclusion, my friend ??
Nice written but I think is incomplete.

pshan avatar
pshan 12 Feb.

Please see the last line of the article in quotations.

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1. Some thought about probability and the impact of free informationThe exact time of an extreme event, like e.g. a market crash or the apocalypse, cannot be foreseen. This is due to the fact that such events occur randomly. Statistical inference allows testing some hypothesis about data with random properties – like e.g. the apocalypse will be on the 21th December 2012 (null hypothesis). But even when the data fulfills all criteria for doing inference, it never tells us if it is a valid sample of the object of interest or not.If we use for example a 95% confidence interval, we always face the risk of getting inaccurate results on 5% of all samples. And inaccurate simply means that the confidence interval does not cover the true parameter. Hence, even when the searched value is in between the calculated level C confidence interval, we do not know the exact value of the searched parameter. This is, using random data, impossible. In a nutshell, there might be an apocalypse one day. But the due date will not be the 21th December 2012. There is a higher probability that you win millions with gambling in the casino – and you may be one of the lucky guys who know that the probability of …
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Nicco avatar
Nicco 17 Dec.

Very interesting...but, one may suppose that professional traders are persons with an IQ higher than a mean citizen, I know someone with phD in mathematics who is broker in Chicago, and many smart mathematicians are involved in many financial activities. Of course, these smart mathematiciens (and economists) are responsables with the beginning of actual crisis. I don't believe that a professional trader can consider this foullish thinking about December 21. But, you're right, the smart traders are speculators, not angels, and can initiate something like panics to scalp the nonsmart ones...

Deta avatar
Deta 18 Dec.

Richard Olsen, beautiful person. I didn't know about the book, thank you for sharing.

Deta avatar
Deta 18 Dec.

about the booklet sorry...

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 18 Dec.

I would just like to add one thing regarding this end of the world madness, the Mayans never predicted anything regarding the end of the world, that is just the absurd interpretation that some people have made. Imagine you have a car that has reached 999.999km, if you drive one more km, it will show 000.000, simply because it only has 6 digits, so in order to continue adding kms it goes back to zero. Same thing with the Mayan calendar. Everything else is just insanity :) Wasnt the world supposed to have ended in the year 2000 anyway? ;) I predict that there will be another prediction soon

Nicco avatar
Nicco 19 Dec.

Man kind have many obsessions and one of them is the obsession of round numbers. And everytime man prove a great stupidity: one who can split the atom or a nuclear particle may believe he can forecast the apocalipse, or a lot of strange paranormal things. But he can't forecast the next EUR/USD price...

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We all traveled this road so I decided to write
this article ... so that is cause for reflection for those who have not yet
started but are tempted to do so. A beginner normally learns of this market in
a casual way, has happened to me so I believe it should be the same for
hundreds if not thousands of people.
Initially many doubts arise whether the
functioning of the market itself or in how to operate it. How to use leverage,
which is the best time to enter a position, which is the best pairs/assets to
negotiate ... All this creates a huge mess!
 The 1st step (at least as accurate, though not
happen like that with everyone) is: download a demo account.
After installing to the platform and open an account
"DEMO" is necessary to make some entries in this way will slowly be
taking the concept of its operation. It will be the regular practice of this
demo account in which it will operate with ease, it is not yet operating with
equity, which will achieve positive results that will make it possible to
extrapolate to a real account.
 The "new trader" will experiencing
all the indicators that will arise in various forums about the Forex market,
will ride in a search for magic formulas and…
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hadzibaba avatar
hadzibaba 14 July

good article i wish you +1

tulasi avatar
tulasi 17 July

nice n pleasant to read

ImranMughal99 avatar

Thanks +1

egidijus avatar
egidijus 20 July

Nice article. Good luck! +1

projectx44 avatar

Forex community thinks that this article is a must read for beginners....

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Why many people trading forex has a very high percentage to fail?And why even a successful businessman or someone who has succeed to acquire a million / billion of money or never fail to earn a good life still experiencing a losing trading in forex?If you know that the risk of losing money is very high, why people are so keen to open a live account with the forex broker?Don't you people regret and hate forex trading because you can only see your account balance depleting very fast (A day, a week, for sure less than a month)? Regardless your starting capital is <$100 or $500 or $1,000 or $10,000 or even much more bigger than $100,000.So, now tell me; Why can this happen?Many factors can affect forex trading but I will just give a brief example to this issue.In stock trading, you can make a big profit when prices are rising (Almost guarantee) as long as you have chosen the right shares to have. But the game is different with forex trading because when you make money somebody else out there are losing their money and vice versa.So only less than 10% of forex traders are making their fortune at a cost of the other losing traders.How about reading a forex books that authored by a legendary successful forex traders, will this help you to survive? The answer is YES and NO.NO because by reading those books does not guarantee you can copy their success. Just like reading a Warren Buffet's story does not mean you can become rich as he is.YES only in terms of knowledge and personal experiences to motivate you and giving you some basic pictures of what forex trading is.To finish this introduction, my advice do not easily trapped by a broker's advertisement which often says: "We will show you how to make money in forex easy without stress" OR "Do you have 5 minutes to 1 hour free time each day? Earn a living from forex"Are the above sounds familiar to you? I can be sure that you will shout YES, YES, YES I have seen those kind of advertising in facebook, google, etc.However, making money for a living or even just for an additional second income in forex trading is not an easy job at all.Now I will show you 4 simple mistakes that most people made during their trading time:Mistake #1: No Trading plan.If you are going to have a franchise business or opening a shop, will you just put the money for deposit, rent a place, pay for all warehousing, staffing, etc and start selling? Of course not; Why? Because you have to make sure that everything is going your way and not opposite. This is why trading plan is important.It is not a big surprise that people are not making their fortune in forex trading. Simple yet powerful. In many cases, a vast number of traders execute their trades without a proper plan for entering the market, exiting the market, SL and TP, what if the trade is not going the right way (Emergency plan? Cutting losses?)Many new comers want to make money straight away and as fast as possible to fill their rainbow jug and start their dream come true life NOW. But remember, even a successful traders still making their mistakes from time to time but they learn fast and adapt because they can look back to their trading plan and tuning it to a better one.There is an old saying for forex trader like "Plan your trade and trade your plan". Have you?Mistake #2: Lacks of understanding of Leverage.Leverage is like a double edge sword which can make you rich faster or opposite. Just for your reference that many successful traders are actually trading using 1:1 or 1:30. Yes I know, you might said that you need a very large capital for that but remember if you know how to use the leverage than I suggest stick to 1:100 maximum.Avoid high leverage brokers and do your homework (Research and learn).Mistake #3: Risk Management.If you are going for a skydiving, I am sure you will double check your parachute, belt, goggle, suit, etc before you actually jumping from the plane. Right? Why? I am sure you know the answer for that. The main key is never jump from a plane without a parachute. You will hit the ground and die instantly.But why in forex trading, new comer traders often break the rules of risk management. Remember that only suicidal and hopeless traders are going for a live trading without a practice and sufficient knowledge of the market.There is no easy money here as it was described in the advertising. Keep watching and guarding yourself so that the market cannot reach you and knock you out in the bear and bull market. Always calculate how much risk you can handle, what your maximum drawdown will be, etc.Mistake #4: No Discipline.Now let's say that you have done your homework for calculating the risk, applying an entry and an exit strategy, putting your SL and TP. And you say this is really a very high probability trade; I should trade it now (With a big hope...) then you put yout first trade and your first one is a losing trade. But you might say it is not a big deal at all as it is part of trading and everybody experience a losing one.Ok now you make a second trade and you are still losing it. And you might say maybe I was doing something wrong and missed some checklist. Let me double check again.Then comes to the third trade and you are be more careful now before putting the trade and execute it. The result is another losing trade.... Hate, anger, impatient, hot and fury are filling you at that moment.You keep thinking and have no clue at all for why your system fail. So you plan to skip the next signal and a few hours later the market is breakout to the same signal that was generated. You might think to jump in the late train but could be too late and you decide to jump the next one and relax for now. Increasing in confident and feel like in control so you wait and wait and wait for the next coming signal but the price is keep steady into the same direction and no sign of reversal.Well, good system but I missed plus increase confident and seems in control; you virtually start counting the profit that you should have made in your trade. In addition to that you whispering to yourself "Man, I should taken this trade earlier and I will earning $x,xxx or $xx,xxx extra money by now."From now I am going to follow all the signal and join the big ride but everyday you see your account balance start to sink like a submarine. The period of losing trade is start again and even worse. You finally decide to quit the forex trading and never ever want to touch or hear or read anything about forex forever. As a result, you become a self appointed hero that sharing your story about forex and your experience but I will tell you guys to not trading forex bla bla bla...Emotional problem is the issue here and many traders focus primarily only to money, profit and make a revenge to losing trades without utilising a trading plan. This is part of lack of discipline.Discipline is the one which separate the one who making money and the one who always losing money in the game or you can call it a battle.Lack of discipline is always a mistake and never be a reason for success.Things to avoid is never increase the lot size (Risk), doubling the losing trades, and the famous one are FEAR - GREED - EMOTION.Discipline for example involving you to make a decision either holding a losing trade or cut loss and accept the losses. Please make your mind and take an action immediately.In closing, just do not focus on how to enter and exit the trade. Follow those 4 tips above and set your TP and SL which you can safely leave your computer and doing other things outside for work live balance. Just do not spend and stick to your computer for trading the whole day. Good luck.
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ikhall avatar
ikhall 26 Nov.

Nice article, would you mind reading mine an letting me know what you think?

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 29 Nov.

Hey, while I agree with some of the faults with traders, its a common misconception that 95% fail

It is however still a very high number all well over 50%, nice article anyway :)

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The world economy is so vast that a single head cannot understand its functionalities and mechanisms. To implement the fundaments in trading place, it’s not possible for you and me. Besides individuals like me, has a little investment compared to the big guys, we must choose a sustainable trading system which will give us a good return (return of investment) as well as minimizes the probability of loss. Technically forex is a 50%-50% trading place. If you are into a trade, there are fifty percent chances to win or to lose money. The major traders (dummies) think that forex is a gambling market place. We invest a little money and dream to be a milliner. Honestly this is just a dream and we all know dream never comes true.  During my three years of trading life I figured out few points why we lose money in forex! Little investment: In spot market trading most of the trader start with a little money. For example, $50, $100, $200, $500, $1000 and so on. Yes, you can say this amount as your investment, but is it enough for trading to make a smart amount of money at the end of the year? Definitely no, the minimum investment for spot trading should be $5000. You can handle your trade us…
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faridns avatar
faridns 24 Nov.

good article +1

ksalam avatar
ksalam 24 Nov.

thank you faridns, undral, alifari, hasanrafraf all for you great support

Radway21 avatar
Radway21 24 Nov.


ksalam avatar
ksalam 25 Nov.

Thank you Fadwa21 for your feedback.

ELENA_M avatar
ELENA_M 28 Nov.

good for beginners, but not enough informarive. This article need must be continue :) good luck in contest :)

orto leave comments
Most people who starting to engage into forex trading will start their practical journey with a demo/dummy account. There are many ways to success in forex, from reading a lot of forex trading book, learning fundamental and technical skills, discussing certain topics in forums, using custom indicators, and off course many other skills that I have not included above. This time I will cover a slightly different side of unsuccessful of forex trading. Do you ever realise why you can make a big profit in demo account but blown up your live account within month or week or even day or worst in a hour? Simple because you are not yet ready for a real live trading eventhough you might think it is a good time to go live. Newbie/beginner traders often do not realise that demo and live account has a very big difference in terms of emotions of greed & fear, anger, self pity and many other psychology related. A wise trader often once says that there is only a thin of paper barrier divided between a good trader and a bad trader which called emotions. We are human and it is normal to have a desire of winning every trades and getting a big positive number in trading forex but is there a holy gra…
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 23 Sep.

I say... nerver let your emotions quide You before or after you take a trade... +1 and trade well. Do you think the trading psychology is the key?

Livornese avatar
Livornese 24 Sep.

Excellent article! Study Study Study and Study before going live!

ritesh avatar
ritesh 27 Sep.

Nice article buddy +1

foewenpo avatar
foewenpo 14 Nov.

@doctortyby - Psychology is not just a key to success but a mandatory to have who want to get success. :)

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