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15/46
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Dear Traders,
this is the fourth article in my series Bollinger Band Strategy for Trending Markets. In the first article (December 2014) I described how you get in and out of the trade when we are in a trending market. In the second article (January 2015) it was all about managing Stops and Take Profits. The third article (February 2015) was part 1 of how to determine a sideways market.
This is the part 2. In this second part we go further into the selection of the underlying moving average.
I keep the selected chart with the same settings as in my last article so you can easily compare the different settings. So, let’s go with the EURUSD pair on a daily chart.
First of all, I want to include the standard Bollinger Band settings. The underying moving average there is the EMA – Exponetial Moving Average.
EURUSD, Daily, EMA - Exponential Moving Average (standard setting)
When comparing to the following charts, you see the flaws of the EMA and how you can select a better match.
EURUSD, Daily, KAMA – Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average
The Kaufman adaptive moving average KAMA was developed by Perry Kaufman. He presented it in his book "Smarter Trading" in chapter "Smarter Trendfoll…
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VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 6 مارس

Insightful - very well done!
There are some useful tools introduced informative and helpful. A brilliant article, good luck :)

Airmike avatar
Airmike 6 مارس

To many MA. but like anyway :)

anna_t avatar
anna_t 6 مارس

good!))

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 11 مارس

Well done!!! Nice article)

Nihad avatar
Nihad 19 مارس

Interesting,Good luck

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4/43
رتبه
 INTRODUCTION
 
During the month i shown all steps to build a
trade plan. Starting from a simple indicator, through the study about main
options expiry dates, and till the analyze in COT reports together with a quick
look at possible fundamentals changes.
Here I will show the complete application of
previous 3 articles and what I have already anticipated during the webinar on
25th June 2012.
 
CHARTS
 
Chart 1
 
This is actual (26th June 2012)
XAU/USD hourly chart. I’m using OHLC because candlesticks are confusing my
decisions. As seen I drawn 3 main steps: 
Options.Fundamental bet.Cot reports and Price Action.
 
OPTIONS
 
Last two weeks, options helped a lot my trading
in Gold. When price was around 1620 (Chart 1-1), I noticed these two main
expiry dates coming up:
Chart 2
Courtesy of OptionPopularity.com
Chart 3
Courtesy of OptionPopularity.com
 
Seen in chart
2, there were good amounts loaded with strike price between 1600 and 1580;
the black vertical line is where I found spot price at the beginning of the
week (1620-30).
Seen in chart
3, is the main expiry on 29th June 2012, where we see the strong
bearish loads strike price 1700-1650-1600. Again vertical black line to show
wh…
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positive avatar
positive 4 جولای

Informative and very neat presentation. Nice to see something unique in your article.

litsat avatar
litsat 4 جولای

Keep writing :)

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 4 جولای

Very nice as Usual, keep up the great work.

Edziukas12345 avatar
Edziukas12345 9 جولای

keep going bro +1

OneGoodTrade avatar
OneGoodTrade 26 جولای

Nice info to read ... I agree.

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23/48
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INTRODUCTION   In my (small) experience I surely understood one thing: patience is your only real friend in trading. No patience? No money. With this article I will show one or two ideas to understand a possible range area in a major currency pair or commodity and so to increase the degree of confidence when deciding a position.   OPTIONS   Option trading is very different from forex trading and I will certainly not try to explain it here now, because to do it properly, would require me to write at least one book, and be completely out of main topic of the contest. As many (should) know, options in markets can be used for hedging purposes and/or as an addiction on a trading plan. In March 2012, you find an article published by AdrianWS1 where are well explained some of these strategies. An option is composed by a strike price and an expiry date. To simplify, here is an extremely quick example: If today I buy a call option in GOLD with a strike @1520,00 and expiry on 16th June 2012, means that if the 16th of June, price will be higher than my strike, I will have a profit; while in case the price will be lower, I will have a loss. Opposite…
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scramble avatar
scramble 12 ژوئن

@adrian: yes infact i use this software both to study forex and options. you know ... there is a great correlation between the 2 things! still a beginner with options, for the moment only demo, but improving. thank you for nice words :-)

Maryk1 avatar
Maryk1 18 ژوئن

Good work

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 27 ژوئن

I do not particulary like Options but your article gives quality information about them. Good luck this month

scramble avatar
scramble 27 ژوئن

@doctor: yes the tool is very helpful in gold and some other instruments. currencies... uhm...

scramble avatar
scramble 27 ژوئن

@maryk: thank you!

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3/48
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INTRODUCTION
 
Due to the variety and complexity of things I
will need to talk about, I divided the article in 4 sections.
Whole article will show a study in GOLD, but of
course the very same setups are possible in all major currencies, after some
correction relatively to the currency behavior.
This first section will be dedicated to
understand what kind of MA to apply in a chart, to increase confidence in a
trade.
 
MOVING AVERAGES
 
 
This m30 chart shows one of the most
representative situations we find in gold. I drawn some levels based in my
approach to a chart as I shown in previous articles
(weekly levels, pivots, PA, etc&hellip . I will never be tired to repeat that price
is the very 1st thing to look at.
According to the momentum, 1600 was (and is) a
demand area while 1700 was (and is) a supply area. I will show in next sections
reasons why we have main supply and demand areas and what to do to identify
them.
 When going from 1600 to 1700, price finds some
minor levels, causing reactions in points A-B-C-D. Nobody explain why we should
use a SMA instead (for example) of an EMA one, and also why we should use a 30
periods look-back instead (for example) of  200. …
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DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 6 ژوئن

one day I´ll have the patience to figure out MAs etc and I`ll use this article as part of it...good luck..

fifty_fifty avatar
fifty_fifty 20 ژوئن

Excellent Post! I use 2 different MA's for completely different purposes. So I think it is possible to use more than 1 at a time. :) +1

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 23 ژوئن

Very nice article as always, good luck trading.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 27 ژوئن

Moving Averages work the best in Trending Markets, but in Sideways Movements they are almost useless. Congrats on the series of articles this month

scramble avatar
scramble 27 ژوئن

thank you all for comments! @doctor: totally agree in this! kama has less noise but of course in ranging.... helpful only in faster TFs maybe :-)

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