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25/58
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   Welcome back to a new Trading week my Friends from the Dukascopy Community. As you probably know my Weekly Articles contain Analysis Explanation for the time-based Charts and the Constant Range Bars Charts, and the Analysis for the Current Week for the Major Pairs on the 4Hours Charts in analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Charts. I try to update the analysis at least once more during the week through the daily view on the 1Hour charts. Sometimes I even post Analysis for other important pairs. My analysis has had 85% Success ratio so far. I make my analysis on both bulish and bearish scenarios, because in any moment the price action has 50-50% of going Bullish or Bearish.This month I have introduced the Timing Solution and the Explanation of the Key-Levels that I use in my Analysis with the Classification depending on the Importance and Impact on the Market.In my analysis I use the following instruments:- Pivot Points (Daily, Weekly and Monthly - Main Pivots, 3 Supports and 3 Resistences),- Fibonacci Retracements (during a Trend),- Simple Moving Averages (30,50,100 and 200 SMA - also effective during an Uptrend or a Downtrend),- Trendlines and Channel Trendlines (During trends and C…
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 28 Февр.

Gbp/Usd-1Hour chart-28.02-Update-Bearish Probability,if 1.581(Weekly Main Pivot,confluence with 200 and 100SMA and Uptrend Line)will be broken and confirmed price could reach first 1.575(confluence between Monthly R1 Pivot and Daily S2 Pivot from Tuesday),and further to 1.572(Key Confluence between Weekly S1 Pivot and Uptrend Main Dynamic Support Line).This would be a good level for a Bullish continuation of the Uptrend on 1Hour and 4Hours charts.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 28 Февр.

Eur/Usd-1Hour chart-28.02-Update-Bullis Probability,if 1.342(Key Level,confluence between Daily Main Pivot from Tuesday and Uptrend Line,30 and 50SMA cross)will hold as support,price could rise to 1.353(Daily R2 Pivot from Tuesday)and 1.357(Weekly R1 Pivot,confluence with the Uptrend Dynamic Resistence Channel Line).From this level price could retrace bearish to the 1.346(Daily R1 Pivot from Tuesday,becomes then Support),and then continue the upside move to reach 1.368(Weekly R2 Pivot).

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 28 Февр.

Eur/Usd-1Hour chart-28.02-Update-Bearish Probability,under 1.342(Key confluence between Daily Pivot,30,50SMA and Uptrend Line)price will have to break a key support, the 1.338Level(Key Level,confluence between Weekly Pivot and 100SMA),and finally 1.327(Key Level confluence between 200SMA and Weekly S1 Pivot line),to break the uptrend on the 1Hour Chart.The next support will be 1.312(Monthly Main Pivot,and confluence between two Main Downtrend and Uptrend Line from the Higher Time Frames).

ELENA_M avatar
ELENA_M 28 Февр.

as always very informative and with good presentation :)

Bluedragon avatar
Bluedragon 29 Февр.

good article ;) +1

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1/58
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   Greetings dear Dukascopy Traders Community. I hope my Analysis from last Week which contained also the Monthly view (Daily Charts) for the Major Pairs, has helped You to get "another view of the Market" (with the Help of My Timing Solution through Range Bars Charts Article). This Week my article will contain two parts: 1) the usual Analysis with the Weekly View (13-17 th of February) by using the 4Hours Charts in Analogy with the 35/15 Pips Range Bars Charts; and 2) an explanation for the Key-Levels that I use in my Analysis both in times Based charts and in Range Bars Charts. Actually There is also a third "view of the Market" next to Time/Price Action and Price Movement Action, a >Different Market Perception< that I will Expose to You in my next Articles.>>> 1) The >> Key-Levels << that  I watch in My Technical Analysis are strictly correlated with the Trading tools and Instruments that I use. What I haven't posted until now is the fact that I use >>2 Time-Frames (4 Hours and 1 Hour, or Daily and 4 Hours) and 2 Constant Range Bars charts setups (35 Pips and 15 Pips)<< to enter the Market.The Bigger Time Frame or Range Bars Charts Setup is called the SETUP Chart.The Entry/Timing, smaller time-frame or Range Bars Charts setup is called the TRIGGER Chart.Key-Levels for the Setup Charts:- Pivot Points (Daily, Weekly and Monthly - Main Pivots, 3 Supports and 3 Resistences),- Fibonacci Retracements (during a Trend),- Simple Moving Averages (30,50,100 and 200 SMA - also effective during an Uptrend or a Downtrend),- Trendlines and Channel Trendlines (During trends and Congestion areas),- Support and ResistencesKey-Levels for the Trigger Charts, besides the ones from the Setup Chart:- Different SMA's (the same setups 30,50,100 and 200SMA) - signal confirmation,- 5 and 13 EMA cross - signal confirmation,- RSI - Trendline Break-out, False Break-out - entry/exit confirmation,- ABCD or 123 Patterns - entry/exit confirmation,- sometimes MACD (convergence, divergence, trendline break-outs) - confirmation.I correlate the Instruments Above with Volumes Analysis and Candlestick/Bars Formations.To enter the Market the Trend on the Setup Chart has to be Correlated with the Trend on the Trigger Chart (correlation of the Signals).>>IMPORTANT<< : I use Different instruments according to the Market Conditions. I use some of the Instruments - all the Time, Some of the Tools for some of the Time, All of the Instruments for a period of time, Sometimes No Key-Level if I trade "Naked" (Based only on price action and Volumes), but I think to Cannot Trade all the time without using these Tools .(after a Quote from Abraham Lincoln).>>So, Key-Levels are Market Points that give the Price/Time Movement a certain order for the traders to see the Levels where there could be important changes in the Price Action.<>CODE RED Key-Levels<<. The Most Important Key-Levels on the Setup Chart are the 2nd Level Key-Levels that are confirmed by the Volumes Analysis / Candlestick/Bar Formations on both charts SETUP and TRIGGER CHARTS.(as shown in the two images above frm the J-forex Dukascopy Platform).For Example, right now as I write this Article I see a CODE RED KEY-LEVEL tested on the 4Hours Chart on the Eur/Usd at the first our of the New York Trading Session (in the Two images above):>> SETUP CHART (4 Hours Time Based Chart):Confluence between Weekly R1 Pivot / 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement from the Daily Chart and 30SMA, confirmed by the last candle (bearish pin-bar) and Volumes (as shown in the Chart).>> TRIGGER CHART (1 Hour Time Based Chart):Confirmation of the Bearish Signal, more than that 50 and 100SMA cross, False Bullish Break-Out above Daily R1 Pivot Candlestick Fromation and high Volume on the Last Bearish Candle (last Hour).This is a great Bearish Signal to Enter Short on the Market.Of Course You will enter the Market with the Exit (Stop Loss and Take Profit) already established.But to analyse the Stop Loss and Take Profit for this Trade I would Need another Two articles and it seems that I run out of Words for this Article (1500 Words Limitation).And one other Secret... The Entry signal has to be also confirmed by the Range Bars Charts in analogy with the time Based charts. For the Example Above this would mean that You have to look also into the analysis on 35 Pips and 15 Pips Range Bars Charts.>>> 2) Let get to our Weekly Analysis (13th - 17th of February):I will post the Charts for the Major Pairs in the Article with the Explanation in the comments because I do not have enough words remaining in the Article.>1) >>> Eur/Usd <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart:    >2) >>> Gbp/Usd <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart: 
    >3) >>> AUD/Usd <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart:   4) >>> Nzd/Usd <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart:  
  5)>>> USD/CHF <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart: 
   6) >>> Usd/Jpy <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the (15) Pips Range Bars Chart:
  7) >>> Usd/Cad <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart:      Thank You for Your Patience to Read My Article and My Analysis.I will post the Written Explanations for the charts in the Comments Section of the Article, as soon as it will be posted. Disclaimer: Please Take responsability for Your own Trading Decisions.To Your success,Doctortyby - Tiberiu
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 16 Февр.

Usd/Cad,Daily view,1Hour chart(16.02);Bearish probability if price breaks and confirms 0.998(confluence between Weekly and Daily Pivot and 200Sma),it could drop further to 0.995(Daily S1) and 0.938(Weekly S1 Pivot).Bullish probability,if 0.998(Key Level explained earlier)will hold as support,price could turn bac upside to reach 1.002(Daily r1 Pivot)and 1.005(Key Level, confluence between Weekly R1 and Daily r2 Pivots)

ELENA_M avatar
ELENA_M 18 Февр.

again you were right in analysis, will waiting for another. Thanks :)

Schaolin avatar
Schaolin 22 Февр.

Good luck in Contest! +1

corneliu avatar
corneliu 22 Февр.

good luck +1 :) interesting :))

WyMe avatar
WyMe 22 Февр.

Well Done +1

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20/58
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  This is the beginning of a new trading month, a new succsessful trading week and our new Constant Range Bars Charts Technical Analysis (35
Pips Bars/Candles) in Analogy with 4 hours Time Based Charts for This Week, for
the Major Pairs (Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Aud/Usd, Usd/Chf, Usd/Jpy, Usd/Cad and
Nzd/Usd). So far, my Analysis has had 85 % Success, because it is based on
Price Action. In this First Analysis in February I will also Post the Monthly
View through the Daily Charts.
You can see examples for my Analysis in My Article Series from December and
January.I recommend You to read my Timing Solution Article, with the help of the Range Bars Charts, because it can help You to find a better use for this Analysis in your trading Plan. As You may know from my previous analysis my Technical instruments are: - Pivot Points (Daily, Weekly, Monthly), supports and resistences,- Simple Moving Averages (30,50,100 and 200),- Fibonacci Retracements,- Trendlines and Channels,- Candlestick Formations,- Volumes Analysis.My analysis contains the 4 Hours Time-Based Charts in Analogy with the 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Charts for the Weekly View. This analysis also contains the Daily Chart for the Mon…
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ELENA_M avatar
ELENA_M 11 Февр.

as always very informative and with good presentation :) trading is really yours

Forsmin avatar
Forsmin 12 Февр.

Good luck. I wish you the first step

ovidiu_gnt avatar
ovidiu_gnt 12 Февр.

Hard work, high satisfaction .

mauyama avatar
mauyama 13 Февр.

nice work

Schaolin avatar
Schaolin 22 Февр.

good article

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16/58
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   The Question to be made is: "What does a Trader need, to be Successful?". It looks like a complex Question, right from the start. Your thoughts fly away to Trading Plans, Strategies, Systems, Methods, but You have to keep into attention the >>> Timing Factor <<<.    The Entry and the Exit (Stop Loss or Take Profit) of the Trade, are the Components that make it Succesful or not.    Of course that you need a complete Analysis, both Fundamental, and Technical to get the Best Entry and Exit for the trade. You might have a great analysis, very accurate, very precise, regarding the Direction of the Market Price, but if you enter too early You might trigger our Stop Loss before the Trade goes the way You have Predicted. On the other hand if You enter too Late, you might lose the Market Move and wake up in the Middle of a high risk trade.   I have written about the Timing issue in my "12 Steps to Make a Trade, 12 Solutions to Discipline Yourself" article from December.           The >>>TIMING<<< issue involves a Time Factor - the best Moment to Enter/Exit the Market.   How can You find the Best Moment in a Time Based Chart?... You have to take "another View of the Market", one that is beyond the Time Factor.   So, We have a Timing Problem, and the Best Solution can be found by Detaching Yourself from the Time Factor.   The next step to take is to concentrate on the >>>Price Movement<<<, on the Volatility of the Market, beyond the Time by using the Range Bars/Candles Charts. You can read about the Range Bars in my first Two articles from my January Articles Series:- Constant Range Bars Charts introduction,- Range Bars Charts Analogy with Time Based Charts.   >> It is amazing how You can use Trading Instruments from the time Based charts, in the Constant Range Bars/Candles Charts analysis, and combine them with specific Tools from the Price Movement Charts (R.B.C. - Range Bars Charts).   >> For example, You can use Pivots (Daily, Weekly and Monthly - Time Based) combined with Moving Averages from the Range Bars Charts, other than those from the related Time Based Charts, and also Trendlines and Channels based only on Price Movement.   >> However, the real Help comes from the Volumes indicator, and the Volume Spread Analysis conducted in the range Bars Charts, because We have a different number of Bars/Candles, and the Volume is distributed different from the time Based Charts.   >> Another Important Difference, the Bars/Candle Formations, show Different Signals, sometimes earlier then the Time Based Chart, correlated with Volume and the Technical and Fundamental Analysis in both types of Charts.   >> >>>IMPORTANT<<< Volume doesn't Always follow the Fundamental Anaysis and News. They are sometimes higher during the OPEN/CLOSE of the Asian (Tokyo), London or New York.   >>>SOLUTION - Use the Time Factors, Fundamentals and Market Opening and Closing to Spot the Best Entry and Exit Signals by using the Constant Range Bars Charts (Price Movement and Volatility Charts), with the Specific Tools: Volumes, Volume Spread Analysis, combines with Candle/Bars Formations and Technical Analysis. Just Follow the "Smart Money"  (Professional Traders) Real Movement.  
I will post some Chart examples to Better understand the Theory.
   First, let's see an example of the signals provided by the Volumes
combined with Candle Formations in both Types of Charts (Time Based and Range
Bars Charts - 10 Pips). 
In analogy with the Time-Based Chart - 15 Minutes Time Frame:   
Next You can see two examples of How you can combine different instruments in
Constant Range Bars Charts.
Example 1:  
Example 2: 
 
 
Thank you for reading my article. I hope you can use the Information to build a
Better trading Plan and Strategies.
Remember to take a Look at my Constant Range Bars Charts Technical Analysis (35
Pips Bars/Candles) in Analogy with 4 hours Time Based Charts for This Week, for
the Major Pairs (Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Aud/Usd, Usd/Chf, Usd/Jpy, Usd/Cad and
Nzd/Usd). So far, my Analysis has had 85 % Success, because it is based on
Price Action. In the First Analysis in February I will also Post the Monthly
View through the Daily Charts.
You can see examples for my Analysis in My Article Series from December and
January.
Disclaimer: Please Assume Responsability for You Own Trading Decisions.
Thank You,
To Your success,
Tiberiu - Doctortyby  
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 15 Февр.

In trader's Contest I am testing a strategy based on the Currency correlation. It does not follow that successful analysis(85%) from my Weekly Articles (with Updates)as I use Different pairs to trade and different correlations between the currencies.

Schaolin avatar
Schaolin 22 Февр.

good article +1

ante777 avatar
ante777 25 Февр.

Great articles and analysis. Thank you.

forastero avatar
forastero 28 Февр.

good article

Bluedragon avatar
Bluedragon 28 Февр.

nice article +1

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30/65
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Welcome Back... this is the 4th Part of January's Major Pairs Weekly Analysis Series based on 4 Hours Time Frame charts and 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Charts. Last week my Major Pairs' Analysis has had
about 85-90% Accuracy for the Price Projection. As You know from my
previous analysis I make projections based on Price Action and
Technicals for both the Bullish and Bearish Probabilities. Check Out the
Success Ratio on My Price Projections for Last Week and then proceed to
Read My Analysis for Next Week (23-27th of January). Read My 12 steps to Make a trade, 12 Solutions to Discipline Yourself as a Trader, before You can successfully use my Analysis in you trading.I have Explained the Constant Range Bars Charts (based only on Price Movement and Volatility) in my first two articles fromt his Month:1) Introduction to Constant Range Bars Charts,2) Constant Range Bars Charts in comparison with Time Based Charts.This week's Article will contain the Usual analysis for the Major Pairs on 4 hours charts and 35 Pips Range Bars Charts (Updated through Comments Throughout the Week for the 1 hour Charts) for: Eur/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Aud/Usd, Usd/Jpy, Usd/Chf, Usd/Cad, Nzd/Usd. I use the following …
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Milani avatar
Milani 24 Янв.

Take a look at my strategy contest. ............First month and successful for now.

ovidiu_gnt avatar
ovidiu_gnt 24 Янв.

In the market anything is possible, I think that the moment we assume a complex correction

men79 avatar
men79 24 Янв.

Yes, it is too smart for me :)

pistek avatar
pistek 27 Янв.

Helpful Article, gl4you +1

corneliu avatar
corneliu 31 Янв.

interesting :) good luck

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29/65
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Welcome Back my friends, to a new Trading week.This Week's Article will contain the Weekly Analysis View for this Week (16-20Th of January) for the Major Pairs: EUR/USD , GBP/USD , USD/CHF , USD/JPY , USD/CAD , AUD/USD and NZD/USD.The analysis has been made on 4 Hours charts in Analogy with 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Charts / 15 Pips Constant Range Bars Charts (USD/JPY).You can Read my first 2 Articles for this Month where I have explained the Constant Range Bars Charts (based only on volatility and Price Movement) and I have made an Analogy with Time Based Charts.1) Introduction to Constant Range Bars Charts,2) Constant Range Bars Charts in comparison with Time Based Charts.I also think You should Read My 12 steps to Make a trade, 12 Solutions to Discipline Yourself as a Trader, before You can successfully use my Analysis in you trading.   As You may Know from my Previous Analisys I use the following instruments for my Weekly Analysis:- Pivot Points (Daily , Weekly , Monthly) - the Main Pivots, Supports and Resistences,- Simple Moving Averages (30,50,100,200 SMA) Crosses,- Fibonacci Retracements (38,2 ; 50 and 61,8),- Trendlines,- Channels,- Support and Resistences,- Candlestick …
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 19 Янв.

SILVER - Bullish Probability – If it Breaks 30,83(Weekly R1 Pivot confluence with the Downtrend Line) and confirms the Bullish Signal it could reach 31,84(weekly R2 Pivot), 32,22(Monthly R1 Pivot) and 32,97(Weekly r3 Pivot). Price is moving inside an uptrend Channel on 4 hours Chart and this would be a good level for a bearish retracement to the Channel Support.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 19 Янв.

Silver Price has Broken the 200 Simple Moving Average on 4 Hours Chart and has formed a “Red Cross” (50 SMA cross with 200 SMA) simillar to Gold. This could signal a Trend Reversal. The Sentiment is Bullish with Bullish Volume.
Silver Looks more Bullish than gold at this Moment.

kkforex avatar
kkforex 19 Янв.

Agree. Range bars win over any price based charts. 1+

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 22 Янв.

This week my Major Pairs' Analysis has had about 85-90% Accuracy for the Price Projection. As You know from my previous analysis I make projections based on Price Action and Technicals fro both the Bullish and Bearish Probabilities. Check Out the Success Ratio on My Price Projections for Last Week and remember to Read My Analysis for Next Week (23-27th of January) tomorrow in My article Section.

positive avatar
positive 24 Янв.

Liked the depth of your study Doctor. Great work and top rated article +1.

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28/65
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In my first article for the Month of January, you have been able to see a different view of the Market through a brief Introduction to Constant Range Bars Charts (or range candles if it suites You better). I have also posted My January analysis on daily Charts for the Major Pairs. This week My article will also contain 2 parts: 1) The Range Bars Charts advantages in comparison with Time Charts, integrated in part 2) My weekly Analysis for Major Pairs for each of the Major Pairs (which will be updated through comments, and also other pairs). I also insist that You read My 12 Steps to Make a Trade, 12 Solution to Discipline yourself as a Trader, before you read My Weekly Analysis.Part I - Constant Range Bars/Candles Charts advantages:- Range Bars give You a Better Price Action, by eliminating the Choppy Market Noise because the Time is irrelevant in Range Bars Charts. The Long Candles are cut into smaller candles with the same size that give You clearer Entry Signals, and let You make a Better Analysis.- Support and Resistence Levels are Clearer on Range Bars Charts.- Some of the Indicators that are based on Price Action, like MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, Stochastic oscillator, Moving…
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 16 Янв.

USD/CAD,Weekly View(16-20.01),4hours Chart:Price is Moving Sideways on the 4 Hours Chart.Bearish Probability would break 1,015(Weekly S1 confluence with Uptrend Line) Pivot and move further to 1,005(Weekly S2 Pivot). From this level it could retrace Long back to the Uptrend Line - now resistence.Bullish Probability could rise to 1,023(Weekly Main Pivot confluence with 200SMA) and move further to 1,027(Downtrend Line) and 1,032(Weekly R1). This could be a False Breakout and price could Retrace Back down.

NagarajaAdiga avatar
NagarajaAdiga 17 Янв.

WHERE'S THIS WEEK'S ANALYSIS? WAITING FOR IT

men79 avatar
men79 17 Янв.

Not bad, not bad

kkforex avatar
kkforex 18 Янв.

I do use range bars for intraday trading.Must have tool. 1+

pistek avatar
pistek 18 Янв.

gl4you+1

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3/65
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Happy and prosperous 2012, my friends.Before you will read my January Analysis, week 02-06.12, please take a few minutes to Remember the 12 Solutions to discipline Yourself as a Trader, 12 MUST Steps to Make a Trade (and the Important Advices in the article).This ARTICLE SERIES contains Two main Parts: -1) The weekly analysis (updated through comments) on Daily, 4H Charts for the Major Pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF),-2) General Trading Solutions and Advices (this week - Range Bars Charts Introduction).1) CONSTANT RANGE BARS CHARTS. (Price Movement / Action - Volatility Charts)Created in 1995, by a brazilian Trader, Vincent Nicolellis Jr., Constant Range Bars are also called "Momentum Bars". They are standard Charts with Bars that have Open/ Close/ High/ Low and Volume, but they focus on Price Movement, eliminating the Time Factor.The Range Bars charts have 3 rules:- Bars have the same Lenght / Height / High-Low Range in Pips, Ticks or Money ($),- The Close of the Range Bar is always at the High or Low of the Bar,- The Opening of the next Range Bar is always one pip / tick, above or under the High or Low of the current Bar.For example, let's ta…
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Dieselfx avatar
Dieselfx 14 Янв.

some of the levels u put in did actually hit so we're waiting for the next week bulletin news ;0

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 15 Янв.

I have posted today the Weekly analysis view on 4Hours chart for Euro Index, USD Index, USD/SEK, USD/NOK, USD/SGD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY in my article comments from this week. I will post later the analysis for GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY, CHF/JPY in the same place.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 15 Янв.

Tomorrow, on Monday Morning, You will be able to read My Weekly Analysis on 4Hours charts and 30 Pips Range Bars Charts in my new article, along with other Constant Range BArs Charts elements. I will post tonight some previews on the Major Pairs analysis in the comments of the other article and in My trading blog.To Your success, Doctortyby

Milani avatar
Milani 17 Янв.

Always good analyse

kkforex avatar
kkforex 23 Янв.

Nice. Looking forward to your weekly updates.

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