Introduction In an earlier article I compared the length of trends on a daily time-scale between EURUSD and a randomized instrument only to find that the differences were marginal. The conclusion was that on a whole, trends on a daily time-scale don’t last rather than reverse. Using statistics ans data-mining, I look at intra-day trends and show that on certain hours of the day, prices tend to travel in trends while on others they tend to travel within a range. Range throughout the day The range per hour is the difference between the high and the low of the hourly period.This graph shows the average range for each hour of the day for EURUSD over 2.5 years of data. three peaks of activity arise, one at around midnight, one at around 08h00 and one around 14h00. These correspond to the peaks from the Tokyo, London and New York markets respectively. There is thus a verry strong correlation between volume and range.Intra-day trends cannot be analyzed with the classical definition that says a bullish trend ends when the price falls below the last bottom and a bearish trend ends when the price rises above the previous peak. It’s wrong to use this definition because the average range chang…
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