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7/26
Ranking
GOOD MORNING ALL.
Hi all my friends this month I have decided to analyse the NEW Zealand Dollar as I saw it has witnessed a free fall against all its counter parts. I am trying to find out what are the possible reasons and and from here what are the prospects for its future growth.
In the fundamental factors let's have a look at GDP, INFLATION RATE TRADE BALANCE and UNEMPLOYMENT RATE which affects currency value.
GDP OF NEW ZEALAND:
In the first quarter of 2018 New Zealand GDP has shown a growth of 0.6% which is same as 0.6% of last quarter of 2017.
In the contributing factors breakdown is as follows.
  • Service industries shown a growth of 1.1 percent, driving economic growth.
  • Primary industries weakened, down to 2.4 percent.
  • Capital goods also shown rise thus lifting investment.
  • GDP per capita shown a rise of 0.1 percent.
  • Real purchasing power of New Zealand’s income rise up to 1.4 percent.

Pie Diagram representation of contributing factors.

Year-on-Year and Quarter-on-Quarter comparison of GDP numbers.

Breakdown of GDP components.
INFLATION IN NEW ZEALAND:
In first quarter of 2018 CPI in New Zealand fell to 1.1% from 1.6% of last quarter of 2017. In the components housing and other ho…
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Vlad73 avatar
Vlad73 30 May

very good

FE_GMTplus10 avatar

Good job.

Diana29 avatar
Diana29 31 May

Спасибо)) Статья супер)

Chilli avatar
Chilli 31 May

good article !

Yesa avatar
Yesa 31 May

Great job

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45/59
Ranking
This article is in response to some developments reported as of the end of the first week of February.. The article covers some of this thesis and brings it to light in what is a more dramatic revolving trend.
THE THING IS…
In light of the most recent U.S. jobs report, I think the fact that tame jobs data leaving the central banks pat on interest rates is a moot point. If you are serious about market plays, I don’t think interest rates are the thing at this rate… what should be obvious is that markets are imbalanced, and they could remain that way, violently so. Although equity markets are a glorious pinnacle, it’s the equivalent of staring at a shiny iceberg, in my opinion. In other words, it should be appreciated as a guide for direction, and not be an attraction.
CULMINATING FACTOR
The concession being made by retail crowds for what will be a volatile market, offers little discount for investment returns. The idea that interest rates are low, and therefore the stock market should spur itself on is a dangerous premise. Also, the idea that markets are due for a correction, giving rise to short bets is only marginally profitable. Not a good investment thesis to have…
Any de-leveri…
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Beto avatar
Beto 12 Feb.

So, what are your final conclusion, my friend ??
Nice written but I think is incomplete.

pshan avatar
pshan 12 Feb.

Please see the last line of the article in quotations.

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21/66
Ranking


1.0 Introduction

GBP has depreciated in the 7 months up to February substantially. This was most conspicuous on the GBP/JPY pair which
was down by over 20% and GBP/USD pair which has dropped by over 12% and reached a 7 year low at 1.3835. Afterwards
the GBP has bounced back up to around 161 and 1.44 and is currently trading at around 159 and 1.41 respectively.
The two main factors determining it’s further trend direction for the upcoming months will be the potential Bank of England’s interest rate decision as well as the referendum taking place on June 23rd and being decisive on whether United Kingdom will stay or leave the EU.
1.1 EU Referendum
The Fitch Ratings agency has issued a report stating that Brexit would “drive short-term disruption and long-term risks” and that the “precise impact would be highly uncertain”.The referendum factor is solely political and unpredictable, although BoE Governor Mark Carney has reassured that additional liquidity will be provided to the banking sector before and after the referendum in order to avoid any potential insolvency problems. However, as the campaign unveils we will probably see many turnarounds in polls and predictions and this wil…
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Daytrader21 avatar

Good job!!

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks!

Goodini avatar
Goodini 1 Apr.

good article

driven avatar
driven 2 Apr.

Interesting article. Well done!

Kivetat avatar
Kivetat 19 Apr.

Very good job)))) Thank u for this informative and interesting article))))

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4/66
Ranking
It’s been a tough few months for currency traders. Choppy markets haven’t produced any major trends. This got me thinking into ways to make money when the market is not moving. This is the first installment of my multi-part series on trading for income.
What is Trading for Income?
Trading for income covers a broad range of ways to make money regardless of market conditions. Trend following excels during high volatility. Mean reversion strategies do better during ranges. Trading for income is supposed to bridge that gap and offer some ‘’stable’’ income. Please keep in mind that there is no free lunch in the markets. Just like with the other two strategies, trading for income has some serious drawbacks as well. More on this later in this article.
The Carry Trade
The carry trade was a very popular method of trading before the 2008 Financial Crisis. A "Carry Trade" is executed when you borrow a currency that has a low (or now negative) interest rate, like the Japanese Yen or the Euro. At the same time you buy a currency that has a relatively high interest rate. You make a profit of the interest rate differential between the two currencies, also called Carry or Rollover.
In a …
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rajib217 avatar
rajib217 12 Apr.

so nice

ClauTrade avatar
ClauTrade 18 Apr.

Good article... I like it! well done! :)

Kivetat avatar
Kivetat 19 Apr.

Good job)))

Natali_Niyazova avatar

great job

ALSALAMY avatar
ALSALAMY 27 July

nice

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35/76
Ranking

This month I have chosen to do an article that covers both the technical and fundamental analysis of the EURUSD. I have chosen this market pair because it is one of the most traded pair in the currency market, and is a market that is linked to two great world economies: the United States of America and Europe.
For most of 2014 and a large part of 2015, the United States Dollar has been making a lot of gains. The reasons for this gain vary from the low oil and commodity prices to the steady flow of positive fundamental data that was coming out of the states.
On the eurusd, the dollar gain was felt more in 2014; this was around the time the United States Federal Reserve Bank cut back on its quantitative easing program, and started contemplating increasing its interest rates. During this period, European Central Bank (ECB) also started its own quantitative easing program, which had a very strong bearish effect on eurusd. The eurusd formed a very steep bearish channel which lasted for several months.
Moving forward into 2015, eurusd made a low at 1.0500 and formed a very tight range which lasted for many months. During the period, the Federal Reserve Bank dropped many hints on when it…
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LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 8 Feb.

I am with you. 1.15 is possible this month.

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

very good work!

Skif avatar
Skif 9 Feb.

Perhaps up, the ability to be fixed at 1.1250 this movement to a minimum 1.15, maximum above 1.20

DaShik avatar
DaShik 15 Feb.

good job!

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21/53
Ranking
With the Greek debt crisis resolved, at least for a couple of months, the main subject influencing the foreign currency markets are monetary policies in various countries, esspecially it's main element which is the interest rates. As all main economies are don't seem to be fully on a growth path allowing for a monetary ploicy tightening in the form of raising interst rates, all eyes are now on the Fed as it seems that that's where the first rate hike will take place. With the US economy showing much improvement in recent months and chairwoman Yellen making some hints that a potential rate hike could take place as soon as September the USD has appreciated in recent weeks posibly already pricing in a September rate hike. However, last week we have seen the USD decline against all major currencies except the Yen. The USD Index shows the fluctutaion of the USD against a basket of 6 currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK. Last week it has dropped from about 97.60 to around 96.60.
Therefore, the question arises whether last week's drop of the USD is a temporary retracement which will make more room for the USD to appreciate in anticipation of a rate hike or is the market actually se…
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WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks:)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

Useful information, very well explained and written. Nice job!

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks:)

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 30 Aug.

nice

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 30 Aug.

good

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2/44
Ranking
The US Dollar has been on the spotlight since beginning of the year as momentum has surprised everyone. Retracements continue to be shallow. The dollar bullish trend is well mature on its own and I thought it's the perfect time to reinforce my view on the dollar as many are asking: what's next for the US Dollar?
This is the US dollar's fastest rise in 40 years, and it's up 14% on this year alone, and I was one of the few to speak about the dollar rally, even before the trend to be put in motion.
Explaining the dollar's incredible turnaround, at current speed and velocity is not quite hard to explain if you have been following my articles. There are plenty of evidences, from my side, as I was preparing for this kind of move. To understand better what it's happening with the dollar i'll suggest to go over and re-read my previous articles here:
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Daytrader21 avatar

For those who are interested to find more about my own view on the US Dollar, I wrote last week an blog post talking about the 1980-1985 US Dollar analog which fits perfectly to current market environment and also it's a fractal for current price action. See link above.

foreignexchange avatar

Thanks, this article is interesting and qualitatively. Did you also have some correlation analysis with labour market ?
Great article 

Daytrader21 avatar

foreignexchange Unfortunately I never looked into that stuff, when it comes with the currency market the 2 most important things I look at are inflation and interest rates I think that anything else will just alter the view of the market, of course this is just my own opinion. Thanks

Illya avatar
Illya 27 May

It looks like you spend a lot of time for this report.Good job!!!

Daytrader21 avatar

@lllya It takes some times to put all the pieces together and also I do a lot of research because I want to provide high content to my readers. Thanks for the good words.

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4/46
Ranking

Introduction


In 2015, the divergence in monetary policy among the world's central banks is expected to be a key theme. For now, the scorecard seems to be tilted toward monetary easing. In January 2015, fourteen central banks engaged in some form of monetary policy loosening, generally in the form of interest rate cuts or asset purchases.
Fig 1: Central banks actions calendar 2015.
Some of actions included Denmark's central bank aggressive slashing of interest rates four times in a three-week period and the European Central Bank (ECB) announced plans to step up its quantitative easing. Canada cut the benchmark interest by 25 basis points to 0.75% whilst the Reserve bank of Australia RBA followed with a similar 25 basis point cut to 2.25% in its February 2015 meeting.
Having witnessed all the action from across the globe the investing public anxiously awaits the next move from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), having ended the quantitative easing program in October 2014. This article looks at the state of monetary policy in the United States.
January 28, 2015 monetary policy statement
Having announced the end on the quantitative e…
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aizana avatar
aizana 20 Mar.

Удачи в конкурсе

Vitalinka_Pavlenko avatar

excellent article.

Violetameynell avatar

GREAT!!!

sonjatrader avatar

Very interesting article Ilolor!!!

Julia_Zhulinskaya avatar

very good

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9/33
Ranking

INTRODUCTION
The FOMC Statement is a highly anticipated event, more so as the FED is nearing it's planned interest rate hike.
A lot of care is put into the exact wording used in the statement, so as not to cause excess volatility in the markets, or misleading information.
Trading this risk event is like playing a game of Poker with the FED, carefully analyzing every word trying to interpret the underlying message. Essentially trying to figure out the FED's cards, to determine when to go all in!
(figuratively speaking).
SUMMARY

This article is my personal interpretation of the FED Statement of Dec. Therefore the view here may differ from other publications on the web, as the statement does carry a larger degree of vagueness.
The objective of the article, is to provide trader's that are new to the fundamental side of trading, a view of how a press conference can be interpreted, and subsequently trade the obtained information.
Figure 1 - USDJPY 5M - Showing a bullish effect prior to, during and post FOMC
To sum up the statement in one sentence, the FED see's the economy continue to improve. Everything remains inline to raise interest rates as planned. This will likely occur mid
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Daytrader21 avatar

Nice Article. This FOMC statement was indeed quite confusing at first because they where reporting the "considerable time" stance was dropped off and than they came back reporting the "considerable time" is still there used in another paragraph.

alifari avatar
alifari 30 Dec.

A well written article, well done

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 1 Jan.

Thanks alifariDaytrader21 I think what made it even more confusing was Yellen's hawkishness in the press conference! but that is why I decided to write the article.  Hopefully provide a bit of perspective on my take.

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3/33
Ranking

If the main macro theme of 2014 was the broad based dollar strength, the general consensus for 2015 is for further appreciation of the dollar. The implication of a strong dollar, and with the pick up in volatility, have also set in motion other trends, like the bearish commodity trends(see Metals and Oil), the carry trade has died (see AUD/USD and NZD/USD) and last but not least EUR/USD has finally started trading to the downside.
The broad based dollar strength can have a big impact on US economy, like lower inflation and this can be the trigger, next year 2015, for a considerable correction in the equity market but without altering the secular bull trend. I'm making a bold call here that the equity market will have a severe correction in 2015, once we complete a PI cycle from the 2007 high. "PI" the magic number has the following significance:
  • PI=3,141;
  • Multiply (Pi)*1000=3141;
  • 3141 days equal 8.6 year;
  • If you add 8.6 years to the 2007 high it bring us to October 2015 as the next intermediate top.

Because of the dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency, the impact of the broad based dollar strength can trigger some "consequences" in other part of the world such…
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Daytrader21 avatar

JockPippin I really don't understand what are you trying to say.

WallStreetBlog avatar

Thanks!!!

salamandra avatar
salamandra 28 Dec.

Багато з чим не погоджуюсь... Але робота сподобалась в плані знаходження позиційного планування і інвестування...

foreignexchange avatar

Good Evening Daytrader21, thanks for the article. It could be very interesting. I like the article even there are parts that could be explained differently. HMM can probably prove mathematically the assumption in fig 5, maybe also other different stochastic processes ...... but I suppose that fractals are not so indicated. You should need a kind of  complex quadratic polynomials to calculate  swing below 1.3490. But if it is just your intuition it could be statistically compatible with other parametric models.  But .. GOOD JOB and THANK YOU VERY MUCH. Good trading 

marius24 avatar
marius24 30 Dec.

yap. I like this article. Let's see if you are right when 2015 ends. Good luck bro with your trading and hope you put all this work into practice.

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14/22
Ranking
Abstract
The interconnectedness between trade balance, interest rates and foreign exchange rates of national currencies is discussed. The case for gold standard and free market interest rates is outlined. The reasoning behind the introduction of free-floating exchange rates is presented. The inherent flaws of current system are exposed; the indispensable conditions for balanced trade and fair exchange rates are formulated.
By historical standards the currently existing global system of free-floating fiat currencies is fairly new – the last tie of US dollar with gold was severed in August 1971. Although this drastic step was initially offered to the American public as a temporary measure, the course of action had never been reversed. The immediate fallout, albeit unnoticed by public, had profound effect on the global economy – gold has been supplanted by fiat currency, namely US dollar, as clearing tool of international trade. Somewhat flawed, but overall rather robust, system that kept multilateral international trade in check was insidiously superseded by a system inherently unstable and, as history demonstrated, bereft of necessary ability to balance international trade. Trade …
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Elani avatar
Elani 24 Nov.

Excellently written article!

VictoriaVika avatar

Great one, well done! Good luck with it :)

Marenno avatar
Marenno 25 Nov.

Interesting

fxigor avatar
fxigor 18 Dec.

I am glad when I can learn more about fundamental analysis. Nice Back-feed loop resulting from trade deficit Figure.

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7/19
Ranking

Abstract

Verbal stance as a viable tool of monetary policy is described. Immediate risks of rate hike for leveraged financial institutions are outlined. The root causes of sovereign debt crisis in Europe are outlined. The future course of Fed`s actions on interest rates is proposed; the feasible downsides of such policy for USD are put forward.

The unconventional measures deployed by the Fed in the wake of financial crisis of 2007-09 were initially sold to public as transient means to enhance liquidity in the markets and prevent total collapse of banking system in the US. While some programs, implemented by the Fed, were transitory – TARP, TALF, CPFF etc. were unwound at some point, the main tool of monetary easing – the fed fund interest rate is being kept intact at 0.25% for over 5 years. This Fed`s persistence, inexplicable by any traditional arguments, raises pertinent questions from general public, forced to forgo risk-free return on its savings, and provides endless fodder for financial commentators, speculating on the future course of Fed`s actions.
Verbal stance – essential tool of monetary policy
In current conditions of artificially depressed interest rates, every F…
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ANABEVZ avatar
ANABEVZ 27 Oct.

my best wishes for you with your article!

Elani avatar
Elani 27 Oct.

very informative!!

VictoriaVika avatar


speculo_ergo_sum Thank you for article! Only now I sow it and its late to put like ((( It is so nice of you to share your great dedication and effort! Also we can see here detailed description of the method, very informative.  Great work, keep going.  Victoria

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11/23
Ranking

Introduction :

Understanding the market we trade is vital.
In this Article, I would like to take a brief overview of the current World Economic Climate, together with factors that influence. Should it be enjoyed, I will continue to delve into the statistics, to offer a complete understanding, at the end.
Key To Charts :
These charts are prepared for ease of reference. In all cases, I have calculated the World average (from the data available). White is favourable. Colour is above the average to a maximum of double. Grey proceeds thereafter and black indicates that data was not available from my reliable sources.
In the case of Food Inflation and DEBT/GDP, I have set the roof for colour at a maximum of an additional 50% of the World average.
The statistical data is included for ease of reference.
Overview :

At a glance, S & P Ratings offer a picturesque view of the current economic climate. It is, however, a stagnant picture.
Interest Rates are vital to analyzing the future potential of a country and its economy and currency. Higher Interest Rates attract investors, whilst lower Interest Rates do not. For traders, the difference between two Interest Rates offers a clue to th…
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Haynes6EU avatar
Haynes6EU 30 Sep.

Great article )

xtrader360 avatar
xtrader360 30 Sep.

Great!

geula4x avatar
geula4x 30 Sep.

+1 Liked: interesting article and statistics + nice graphics! Well done and good luck! :-)

lbteresa avatar
lbteresa 1 Oct.

Very interesting, there are very many points which need further analysis. I think I'll study all this in depth, it will take time. Very well done!!!

Meerak avatar
Meerak 2 Oct.

Good Article

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7/23
Ranking
As we all know, the US economy is performing well to all accounts. And as such, the FOMC are going to be considering raising interest rates in the not-too-distant future. Right now, as I type, the futures market for the Federal funds rate sees the first hike at some date between Early June and September.
So that puts us roughly 9 months from the first rate hike from the Fed. The 1st in many, many years. Many junior traders and investment managers who started their career in 2007, have never seen a Fed hike - and these are the people who will now be managing directors or Portfolio managers at sizeable hedge funds. While looking at historical charts of how various assets respond to hikes is one thing, actually trading it is another. Typically a Fixed income manager will look to buy USD-denominated, short duration bonds during a hiking cycle, so as to protect themselves from the MTM impact of higher rates.
In FX, typically higher US rates act in multiple ways to benefit the USD;
  1. Higher interest rates serve to decrease (in theory) inflation, and as such, real interest rates rise leading to a high USD
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sonjatrader avatar

Very interesting point of view.Thanks :) Sonia

mimuspolyglottos avatar

After the ECB is done with MonPol, all eyes gonna pop at the Fed. What do the traders need, is to keep it simple and straightforward as you were pointing at in your article. Fight the central banks while they are sleeping (ask Soros about his know-how) or else....become a c'banker :). Good article with an exposition of the fundamental reason what is going on with the USD. Regards.

Skif avatar
Skif 26 Sep.

very nice bro!

OneGoodTrade avatar

Always original ideas. Nice work.

VictoriaVika avatar

Great article, nice written, thank you, it is great to have a more useful information for Forex markets.

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3/21
Ranking
2014, for the most part, has been an interesting albeit quiet year for the FX markets. G10 volatility is the lowest in the post Bretton Woods era. However, while some Global macro firms are struggling, in actual fact, its been a perfect year to trade upon these ideas.
So what is Global macro? - Simply, its looking at the fundamentals of a country or area, and trading based upon the findings. Whether its in the Equity markets, the fixed income world or even in FX. Fundamental analysis is the cornerstone of investing, as has been as long as trading has existed.
Global macro is really considered a strategy, alongside the likes of Equity Long/short, Event drive, Arbitrage, Volatility... So far, this year Macro funds have performed very poorly, averaging -2.83% across the major Hedge funds.
In FX, the key determinant of a currencies value is how central banks act, and their policy. Whether they are hawkish or dovish impacts both the supply and demand for currencies , and simple economics. So far this year, there has been substantial divergences in central bank policy. And if we can correctly predict *where* they are going from here, then trading in FX becomes really simple.
If we consi…
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Daytrader21 avatar

I think Paul Tudor Jones described current trading environment the best: "Manic depressive trading in a volatility-compressed world." He made this comments few months back at Sohn conference. You can't argue with the macro trading king:) when he say:"Macro trading is about as difficult as I’ve ever seen it in my career.” By the way that "inverse gaussian distribution curve" of perception of monetary policy standing looks quite interesting. I've seen one presented by the guys from dailfx, a bit different than yours but of course each with his own view:). Nice article as always.

Elani avatar
Elani 20 Aug.

well as a beginner I need to learn more in order to understand how to invest with a global macro mindset but thanks for the article  it gave me some basic understanding of it.

mimuspolyglottos avatar

Thanks one more time. The divergence on CBs policies means only one - higher volatility. The wider gap - the higher volatility. Rubbing my hands.

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