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7/26
Ranking
GOOD MORNING ALL.
Hi all my friends this month I have decided to analyse the NEW Zealand Dollar as I saw it has witnessed a free fall against all its counter parts. I am trying to find out what are the possible reasons and and from here what are the prospects for its future growth.
In the fundamental factors let's have a look at GDP, INFLATION RATE TRADE BALANCE and UNEMPLOYMENT RATE which affects currency value.
GDP OF NEW ZEALAND:
In the first quarter of 2018 New Zealand GDP has shown a growth of 0.6% which is same as 0.6% of last quarter of 2017.
In the contributing factors breakdown is as follows.
  • Service industries shown a growth of 1.1 percent, driving economic growth.
  • Primary industries weakened, down to 2.4 percent.
  • Capital goods also shown rise thus lifting investment.
  • GDP per capita shown a rise of 0.1 percent.
  • Real purchasing power of New Zealand’s income rise up to 1.4 percent.

Pie Diagram representation of contributing factors.

Year-on-Year and Quarter-on-Quarter comparison of GDP numbers.

Breakdown of GDP components.
INFLATION IN NEW ZEALAND:
In first quarter of 2018 CPI in New Zealand fell to 1.1% from 1.6% of last quarter of 2017. In the components housing and other ho…
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Vlad73 avatar
Vlad73 30 May

very good

FE_GMTplus10 avatar

Good job.

Diana29 avatar
Diana29 31 May

Спасибо)) Статья супер)

Chilli avatar
Chilli 31 May

good article !

Yesa avatar
Yesa 31 May

Great job

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2/31
Ranking
GOOD MORNING ALL !!!
I regularly trade on EUR/USD so I have decided to analyse fundamental factors for the growth of EUR last year. As this year, from the last three months EUR/USD trending sideways so my attempts is to find out which side it may break.
I have deliberately mentioned speculation in the title of my article, as in 2017 on many occasion there were several discussions about the topic that, European Central Bank may end quantitative easing programme as scheduled in December 2017. When I look back in history, Eur's downfall started in 2008 as Eurozone and world witnessed a recession. Falling growth, rising unemployment rate, falling inflation so ECB started Quantitative Easing means a bond buying programme in 2015, to raise money supply in the system and lowered interest rates to negative. Rising money supply makes loan cheaper and so tends businesses and people to spend more on various fronts. Like investments in business expansion may grow up which in turn leads to rising employment and economic growth.
Disclaimer : Made by me from data source on ECB website.
Last year we have witnessed a low of 1.034 in EUR/USD and from there it has grown almost 2000 pips and this year…
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Zodiak avatar
Zodiak 25 Apr.

good work

Rumpel6tilkin avatar

Good

drferre avatar
drferre 25 Apr.

Good job

Annyrio avatar
Annyrio 26 Apr.

very good!

Maxim3 avatar
Maxim3 30 Apr.

very well!

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9/40
Ranking

Definition and Economic forecasting

  • Fundamental analysis can be defined as the study of country’s economic and financial performance in order to determine the fair market value and future direction of its currency.
  • Fundamentals focus on factors that determine exchange rates, such as countries’ economic health, political stability and environmental events.
  • A popular way to gauge the health of countries’ economy is through looking at its economic indicators and data releases, which is why every trader should be familiar with them and how they influence the value of a currency.
  • If the European economy is doing better/worse than American economy then we expect EURUSD price to go up/down.
  • Our target is to evaluate how well the economies in question are doing, and find which currency will appreciate/depreciate.
Macroeconomic Indicators
  • Interest Rates
  • Inflation
  • Gross Domestic Product – GDP
  • Unemployment
  • Trade Balance

Pic 1 - Major Indicators which can move the currency pairs

Interest Rates

[list][/list]…
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Anetta_Kliueva avatar

Oh great artice!! Thanks=)))

_shokolad_ avatar
_shokolad_ 25 Aug.

Good job!))

krabik avatar
krabik 15 Sep.

Good

LoockasFX avatar
LoockasFX 19 Sep.

интересно!!!

klintons avatar
klintons 9 Mar.

Gute Artikel

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15/58
Ranking

Introduction
The global economy is in turmoil and central banks from the breath and width of the globe are struggling to spur economic growth in 2016. They have deployed most the weapons in their arsenal in a desperate attempt to spark economic growth, including negative interest rates and massive stimulus packages but the much need growth remains elusive. Consequently, central banks are looking for new ways to spark economic growth, and the use of unconventional means such as "helicopter money," have become topical issues.
This article seeks to demystify the concept of helicopter money, making it clearer and easier to understand to the ordinary person.

What is Helicopter Money?

Helicopter money is a reference to an idea made popular by the American economist Milton Friedman in 1969 in his paper “The Optimum Quantity of Money.”
The basic principle is that if a central bank wants to raise inflation and output in an economy that is running substantially below potential or targeted levels, one of the most effective tools would be simply to give everyone direct money transfers. In theory, people would see this as a permanent one-off expansion of the amount of money in circulat…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar

well done!

olya2517 avatar
olya2517 23 Sep.

very good

Armands avatar
Armands 25 Sep.

Instead of giving more money directly to everyone, they give it to selected ones!

VictoriaVika avatar

great article!

Sharpshooter avatar

Точно. Так и вливают они обычно)

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5/47
Ranking
Introduction
As the global oil and energy prices plummeted in 2015, so did the inflation and growth rates. This left most central banks in quandary as inflation and growth rate numbers ran far below their targeted levels.
This article looks at the successes and failures of the current expansionary monetary policy regimes in the world with particular emphasis on the economies employing the negative interest rate policy.
What is Negative interest rate policy?

A negative interest rate policy is a monetary policy tool whereby nominal target interest rates are set with a negative value.
Rationale for Negative Interest Rate Policy

During periods of economic downturn and deflationary pressures, central banks often lower rates to stimulate growth and to raise the inflation rate. The main objective of negative rates is that they provide an incentive for private banks to make loans. With the negative interest in place, storing money at the central bank in the form of reserves or holding lots of cash will become unattractive and projects that were not worth funding even in a low-interest-rate environment might now look worthwhile.
In some cases, central banks turn to negative rates to lower…
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juraj avatar
juraj 3 Aug.


Ilolor- it does not matter what the CBs state on their website, important is what they actually DO and how they make their decision.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE/#0

Fed never even declared its 2% target in the way ECB did, yet we are presuming they want to achieve 2% inflation. Their models are based upon PCE numbers and when you look at the history it becomes clear that FED always acted as if they were targeting core PCE. They were ok with headline inflation of 3%+ yet core PCE was at roughly 2% so they did nothing. Back 3 years ago when headline surpassed 2%,

juraj avatar
juraj 3 Aug.

Fed was in no hurry to lift the accommodation  because core PCE was still well below 2%.

If ECB officials declined to cut rates and step up QE saying core inflation was still positive and much better than headline, then they are de facto targeting core and not headline.

And if BoJ is refusing to step up easing for 2 years because core inflation is faring well, even though headline is back below 0 then they cannot be targeting headline inflation, no matter what their website says.

And lastly there are good reasons why you should overlook supply shocks (food&energy)

juraj avatar
juraj 3 Aug.

I am finished here- the comment system is a piece of... limiting me to under 600 characters which makes it impossible to express my intricate arguments.

Take care, it was a nice talk to you.

Mattie avatar
Mattie 3 Aug.

More often than not, it is for political reasons that the Fed Banks raise or lower rates. 

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 26 Aug.

Very interesting article!

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19/47
Ranking
Since the brexit sparked another round of gold buying, I was prompted to read and analyze correlation between the gold, inflation and public debt. As from the 2000s, the Gold prices have participated in a bull run. As a key reason, the "easy money" policies of majority of key world's central banks are to blame. So, why is the gold traditional hedge against inflation ? I have been hearing this line on the CNBC and Bloomberg for years and years, especially since we are currently in the phase of deflation.
So what are the conditions that represent inflation? That list include rising property prices, a rising stock market, and increasing asset values. But also the debt burden, representing debt with relation to income, is increasing.
Inflation v Debt
High inflation usually travels hand in hand with higher debt burdens. What does this mean ? Let me try to explain this. Imagine a situation where the government borrows $10 billion today from the market and that inflation is 5%, and the government bonds yields 10%. After a year, the government owes the same $10 bn that they borrowed. Add to that 10% interest and a total is $11 bn. Since the bond yield (10%) is above the inflation rate, th…
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Forex_champion avatar

Nice info

sonjatrader avatar

Great article

hrustiashka avatar

Good article!

scramble avatar
scramble 20 July

Simple, quick, and clear! I like this article! Nice job :)

samymahrous avatar

good written

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27/76
Ranking
1. Perspectives économiques pour 2016.
Le FMI prévoit pour 2016 une croissance économique faible. En cause, selon cet organisme, le ralentissement de l'économie chinoise, du commerce international en général et de la remontée des taux aux États-Unis en décembre 2015. Ce dernier point risque de pénaliser les économies des pays émergents dont les institutions et entreprises sont endettées en dollar. Une seconde augmentation des taux US pourrait fragiliser davantage ces économies par des coûts de financement devenus ingérables. Toujours selon le FMI, les économies des pays développés auront besoin de politiques monétaires accommodantes.
Toutefois, le FMI avait publié en octobre des prévisions de croissance du PIB à 3,6% pour 2016. Ce dernier discours laisse entrevoir des prévisions à la baisse pour la prochaine publication.
  • Prévisions de croissance du PIB ( Variation trimestrielle annualisée en % ) Source: FMI

  • PIB réel et volume du commerce mondiaux ( variation trimestrielle annualisée en %) Source : FMI

2. Aux Etats-Unis.

On notera des divergences de vue avec le discours de FED en décembre 2015 qui anticipe un redémarrage de son économie qu'elle envisage de faire suivre par un re…
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alias1980 avatar
alias1980 22 Feb.

very good job , an excellent article . Sumptuously!

salamandra avatar
salamandra 22 Feb.

good work ... use in its analysis

CharmingRimma avatar

nice thoughts, thanks for sharing!

GingerLily avatar

Someday I will understand this)

Alesya_Isaeva avatar

good job

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41/76
Ranking
Introduction
In this article, GBP/USD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex, so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the GBP /USD.
What is affected the move of GBP/USD nowadays:
Fundamental Analysis:
GBP/USD is affected now by two different policies by both Bank of England (BOE) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected sometimes by UK internal issues like last Scotland independence and UK exit from European Union (EU), finally pound and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
[list][/list]…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar

good analysis!

Kbelestro avatar
Kbelestro 16 Feb.

Отлично!

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 21 Feb.

useful information!

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31/76
Ranking
Introduction
In this article USDJPY will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the USDJPY.
What is affected the move of USD/JPY nowadays:
Fundamental analysis
USD/JPY is affected now by two different policies by both Bank of Japan (BOJ) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by BOJ quantitative easing which strongly hit Japanese Yen, finally Yen and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
[list][/list]…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar

weel done! it seems now is scenario #3

khalidamassi avatar

Yeah, natallia we r now exactly in scenario #3 with big target ....

zarina avatar
zarina 12 Feb.

I wish you, the option that is waiting!

FX90 avatar
FX90 19 Feb.

good article

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 21 Feb.

great article!  good luck!

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13/46
Ranking
The preservation of value

Traders prefer gold investments, when markets are volatile and dominated by economic or political instability. Economic turbulence has traditionally influenced by the growth in the value of precious metal, as investors assess it's a safe investment. The instability times caused by higher demand and interest in gold, which means an even greater increase in value. These market developments offer great potential for greater earnings opportunities for trade.
"Gold always become more expensive", concentrate on detail and uncover the gold trade opportunities, and how to actually make a profit from it.

Why traders invest in gold?

For a long time gold for traders are very appropriate financial instrument. This is a high-value product, which is not related to any specific markets, countries or some companies. That's why investors sell gold in order to compensate for thei'r fails, resulting from various economic circumstances.
Gold market is the global OTC (over-the-counter) market. New York Mercantile Exchange Comex division and the London Bullion Market Association are the two largest gold trading places in the world. Like any other financial instruments, the g…
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garisan avatar
garisan 23 Mar.

Interesting article. I've always been curious about trading gold but I don't really know much about it.

Ticker avatar
Ticker 29 Mar.

thank you all for wasting your time on this one :)

ahmedmhassan avatar

nice analysis

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

Good job! Do you trade gold the most?

Ticker avatar
Ticker 30 Mar.

No, but i trade gold too :) thanks ahmed!

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19/45
Ranking
Let’s begin with a quiz.
  • In the case of war or total economic collapse, which would be more valuable, oil or gold?
  • What is the average cost of producing an ounce of gold, a barrel of oil and printing a dollar?
  • Is gold a commodity, currency or Veblen good?
While days of the gold standard are behind us, gold still plays a role in day-to-day life, be it as a currency or commodity. According to World Gold Council, the Turks amassed over 3,500 tons of gold “under-the-pillow” by 2014 and Russia and China are stocking up. Is gold truly an investment or are people busy stacking “rocks” which could be another tulip mania?
Famous gold quote...
Gold Has Never Been Worth Zero

Gold investment advisers say when countries start stocking gold, it is not indicative of wealth but potential economic turmoil. They also say the accumulation of gold indicates what other nations and hedge funds think about the US dollar and the global economy. Others fall in the group of the British economist John Maynard Keynes and believe that “gold is a barbarous relic”.
The image below shows the rise of gold since 2001 and how gold reacts to economic events affecting the US dollar.
Many also claim that gold has neve…
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pipx avatar
pipx 20 Feb.

Likerty, it gets simpler trading gold with time and practice, just key points to remember is that gold price always goes up when the dollar index is down. That said when the governments inject money into the economy, gold price has to drop below the money supply line as indicated​ in the last chart.

Airmike avatar
Airmike 22 Feb.

nice article

VictoriaVika avatar

Thank you for article, it is so nice of you to share your great dedication and effort, also here detailed description of the method. Good work, congrats.

FxMidaso avatar
FxMidaso 22 Feb.

thanks

Agnessa26 avatar
Agnessa26 23 Feb.

Очень хорошая работа!!

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1/45
Ranking

Introduction
Oil had a roller-coaster year in 2014 with prices dropping to multi-year lows. If the story were to be dramatized, ‘How the mighty has fallen’ would be a perfect title. Unlike other commodities, oil has a great influence on the global economy as it is a key component in all the sectors.
This article looks at the story behind the oil price fall and how the low oil prices have impacted the global economy.
Oil Price History
Fig 1: Historical prices of crude oil
Fig 1 shows the historical prices of crude oil from 1946 to date exhibiting huge swings. The volatility in the price can be explained by key events in history.
  • From 1948 through the end of the 1960s, crude oil prices ranged between $2.50 and $3.00.
  • The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was formed in 1960 with 5 founding members. By the end of 1971, six other nations had joined the group.
  • The Yom Kippur War started on October 5, 1973. By the end of 1974, the nominal price of oil had quadrupled to more than $12.00.
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Stix avatar
Stix 22 Feb.

I appreciate the topic. Thank you very much ! :) :)

TelisHellano avatar

Very good article indeed, precise and analytic

777Eva avatar
777Eva 23 Feb.

good

lelipuzik avatar
lelipuzik 25 Feb.

really cool and interesting!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 15 Nov.

I learned a lot from this article. Thoroughly and very well explained. Well deserved win!

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11/23
Ranking

Introduction :

Understanding the market we trade is vital.
In this Article, I would like to take a brief overview of the current World Economic Climate, together with factors that influence. Should it be enjoyed, I will continue to delve into the statistics, to offer a complete understanding, at the end.
Key To Charts :
These charts are prepared for ease of reference. In all cases, I have calculated the World average (from the data available). White is favourable. Colour is above the average to a maximum of double. Grey proceeds thereafter and black indicates that data was not available from my reliable sources.
In the case of Food Inflation and DEBT/GDP, I have set the roof for colour at a maximum of an additional 50% of the World average.
The statistical data is included for ease of reference.
Overview :

At a glance, S & P Ratings offer a picturesque view of the current economic climate. It is, however, a stagnant picture.
Interest Rates are vital to analyzing the future potential of a country and its economy and currency. Higher Interest Rates attract investors, whilst lower Interest Rates do not. For traders, the difference between two Interest Rates offers a clue to th…
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Haynes6EU avatar
Haynes6EU 30 Sep.

Great article )

xtrader360 avatar
xtrader360 30 Sep.

Great!

geula4x avatar
geula4x 30 Sep.

+1 Liked: interesting article and statistics + nice graphics! Well done and good luck! :-)

lbteresa avatar
lbteresa 1 Oct.

Very interesting, there are very many points which need further analysis. I think I'll study all this in depth, it will take time. Very well done!!!

Meerak avatar
Meerak 2 Oct.

Good Article

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7/21
Ranking
Abstract
New approach of BoJ towards forex market interventions is described. Unintended consequences of new policy implementation are discussed. Alternative methods of lowering inflation at disposal of BoJ are considered; possible outcomes for different scenarios are outlined and their impact on JPY exchange rate is put forward.

For years now central bankers around the globe are trying to convince public that inflation is indispensable constituent of healthy economic growth and should be greeted with optimism as harbinger of coming prosperity. There is one caveat though they say, it should be rightly dosed at 2% annual rate; any readings below the desired level is deemed as counterproductive.
Considering relatively low levels of inflation in Japan over the last decades, at least according to government statistics, the aim of reaching “the target level” seems to be hard to achieve.
Considering that over the last decade inflation in Japan, at least according to government statistics, stayed at relatively low levels, the aim of reaching “the target value” might seem to be very hard to achieve.
Indeed, it is rather difficultto overcome deflationary forces in highly indebted econom…
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HelgaPehkel avatar

i just have closed buy order on USD/JPY on 104.13

speculo_ergo_sum avatar

thank you for reading my article:) I do appreciate any feedback, opinions, words of relentless criticism:)))))))))) well, I do think that JPY might go up, provided BoJ does right things. Speaking of short term trends, I hope that this week USDJPY will go down to at least 102.

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2/26
Ranking
INTRODUCTION
The 5th of June 2014 European Central Bank (ECB) governing council meeting made the following monetary policy resolutions:
  1. "The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be decreased by 10 basis points to 0.15%, starting from the operation to be settled on 11 June 2014
  2. The interest rate on the marginal lending facility will be decreased by 35 basis points to 0.40%, with effect from 11 June 2014.
  3. The interest rate on the deposit facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to -0.10%, with effect from 11 June 2014."
As highlighted in the article All Eyes on the 5 June European Central Bank Meeting, these measures are meant to address the low inflation and economic growth problems being faced by the euro area.
The question and answer segment of the press conference provided some interesting views. In response to the question on the strength of the Euro and the possibility of seeing the euro fall back to the initial level against the dollar at 1.17 the ECB president Mario Draghi had this to say, “the exchange rate is not a policy target, but it's very important for price stability and growth.” He also went further saying, “First, th
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eva1207 avatar
eva1207 26 June

Отличная работа! Так держать!

Florentia avatar
Florentia 27 June

super ))

Omela avatar
Omela 28 June

great! you are done!

Skif avatar
Skif 30 June

yes, excellent info

VictoriaVika avatar

well done! good

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