You've most likely heard the phrase, 'time is money", and were convinced that this was a truth equal to law. Just as mathematics has its conventions that are not law-bound, so it is true about time equaling money. Simple, right? In this article, I explore some of the remarkable aspects of an investment universe with negative interest rates, so-called negative carry trade, and relate it to the time-value calculation in options pricing, as well as how we should understand the calculus in our overall trading.
If you trade options, you should be familiar with the options "greeks", one of those being time theta, the first-order derivative of the options pricing model. This calculation is an abstraction of what may be perceived as so-called time value decay. Those who are keen in math, are familiar with compound interest growth as well as decay in sociology and science fields. Because finance is mostly constricted to zero-bound limit investments, there isn't a practicing application of negative growth for compound. That simply doesn't exist in finance. However, as mentioned with the options calculus, financial options have a time value that inevitably decreases day by day. The greater t…
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pshan avatar
pshan 24 Март

thank you! why, I love your comments!

brilliant avatar
brilliant 24 Март

yes.I agree with you. life itself is a time

pshan avatar
pshan 25 Март

thank you! though that comment makes 0 sense in the U.S. brilliant!

ForexAlyoum avatar
ForexAlyoum 26 Март

Good Luck

Beto avatar
Beto 28 Март

Very technical comment. Good job.

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Diversify Everything!
When most traders hear the words diversify, they think of adding more instruments to their portfolio, more and different stocks, bonds from different countries etc. But diversification goes a lot further then this and can take on many forms. Ever thought about adding bitcoin or other non-traditional financial instruments? How about trading a losing system? Even that can make you money in the long run. In this article we’ll go over just some of the ways you can diversify and the benefits of this process.
1. Diversify Across Different Forex Pairs
Let’s start with the lower hanging fruit first. If you have a profitable trading system, test it on other forex pairs. If the system is solid, it will work similarly on other currencies as well. Let’s take a look at a simple trend following system in the Euro. The picture below shows the daily EUR/USD chart with applied 50 and 200 period simple moving averages. The 50 SMA is in red, while the 200 SMA is blue.
When the 50 SMA closes below the 200 SMA, this is called the ‘Death Cross’’. It’s generally considered a bearish trading signal, meaning more losses are likely to follow. The Euro gave out this signal in the su…
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KATRIN_90 avatar
KATRIN_90 3 Нояб.

хорошая работа)

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 4 Нояб.


helenaExpert avatar
helenaExpert 5 Нояб.

nice article!

Lyolichka_Voloshina avatar

очень хорошо написано!

BeautybyLesya avatar
BeautybyLesya 11 Нояб.

Great article!

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Currency markets have inherent levels on which selling or buying activity persists. Identifying such levels allows based on historic performance allows to sell or, respectively, buy from such specific levels. However, selling levels can be broken through once many attempts to test the level have been made and the amount of selling from the level decreases with time. Conversely, the same can apply to buying levels.
Reaction patterns on such levels reflect the amount of “firepower” on such levels. As the “firepower” dwindles, so will the possibility of recurrent selling/buying from such levels.
Selling/buying levels are not pip-precise. On the contrary, they have a certain leeway of 10-20 pip depending on the currency and only in very unique cases are actually pip-precise. Movement beyond the buying/selling level and return back are sometimes called “false breakouts”.
The key to understanding the movements towards the key buying/selling levels is the trading volume which leads towards the “significance levels”. If the volume leading towards the significance level is increasing and is significant, then there is a higher chance that the level will be broken, even if not immediately,…
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anna_t avatar
anna_t 19 Февр.

Hi!) Good job!

Natalia_Kisenko avatar
Natalia_Kisenko 20 Февр.

Well done!

Airmike avatar
Airmike 22 Февр.

comeback ?? :)

VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 22 Февр.

Good article, best of luck.

Agnessa26 avatar
Agnessa26 23 Февр.

Интересный материал!

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The major macroeconomic factors, defining currency exchange rate are discussed. Correlation between oil prices and current account balance for Canada is outlined. An“abnormal” state of futures market, known as “backwardation”, is described. An indispensable feature, signifying minimum in oil prices, is proposed as a corollary. Further dynamics of the Canadian dollar is discussed.
It is ubiquitously acknowledged that the main driving forces behind currency dynamics, absent the Central Bank interventions, are interest rates spreads as well as current account and capital account balances. Provided that the former parameter is negligibly small or kept unchanged for long period of time, the importance of the latter parameters increases.
When commodity price holds the key to currency exchange rate
Canada is a perfect case of a country that developed commodity oriented economy. Advantages as well as drawbacks of so lopsided economical structure are simple to grasp – current account as well as capital account balances (see fig. 1 and fig. 2) become prone to the vicissitudes of world demand for a certain raw material. This high demand might be invoked by legitimate growth of ec…
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Irishka456 avatar
Irishka456 29 Сент.

Полезная информация. Вы молодец

ANABEVZ avatar
ANABEVZ 29 Сент.


HelgaPehkel avatar
HelgaPehkel 30 Сент.

I really have read this, not just put like, but i even do not know what to say, this is not my topic, i am too far from CAD and oil

Polinka avatar
Polinka 1 Окт.

many questions cause confusion...

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 4 Окт.


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Hello dear community members !
I want to discuss about the latest public debate that concerns all community trading :High Frequency Trading or short ( HFT ). Have you heard before about HFT and the impact it has on the market ?I hope so ...Ok , in this article i want to discuss about :
  • What is HFT ?
  • Who are the big flash boys ?
  • It is good or bad for society ?
  • It is fair or not that someone has the power to be the first in every single order ?
  • What we should to do get protected from them ?

High speed trading is a hot topic nowdays and a huge money maker… They are calling with different words such as “The New Normal “, “The Crazy Race of Humans vs Machines” , “The Algos Battle “ recently I ‘ve heard even “The Fast and the Furios “metaphor…Definitions differ, but at its most basic, high-frequency trading implies speed .High Frequency Trading ( HFT ) is a computer complicated algorithem that makes trades in the most shortest timeframe ever : in a fraction of one second, wining and losing millions of money in a blink of an eye…This technological environment has been successful for market makers and HFT trading firms scalping the market in milliseconds for making us belive that a…
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Fxtrader500 avatar
Fxtrader500 31 Май

I don't think HFT is a problem for forex at the moment.

Erialda avatar
Erialda 5 Июнь

Thank you all for your kind comments and support , happy trading to all of you and best of luck :)))

portugaluvaloda1 avatar

Really cool article.thanks!!

ssg786 avatar
ssg786 11 Март

pls suggest me five stocks in which bid price is greater than ask price in nyse
so that i can exploit this arbitrage opportunity

ssg786 avatar
ssg786 11 Март

pls tell me five stocks in nyse with negative bid ask spread

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Why Am I Here One of the most common advices you can find in “how-to-trade“ books/lectures/articles for begginers is “do not copy others‘ actions“ and “only follow your own strategy“. I would like to challenge this point of view. In addition, I will try to show you how herding may help you to avoid losses and even gain profits. Few Explanations Lets get over some things from the beginning. Even though primarily dedicated to FX spot traders, information in this paper may be used by any traders, who trade any financial instrument. At no point of this paper I will intend to suggest that mimicking others blindly is rational and profitable in the long run. Nor I will try to challenge the idea that one must follow his own strategy. What I will try to do is to show that with sufficient knowledge and understanding, following others may be profitable. You may ask how does this work: follow your own strategy, but also follow other traders. It is not that hard to tackle. You have to have your own money and risk management rules (two most important nuances in trading). You have to have rules for entry and exit. You have to know how to manage your trades at any point in time. All of these ar…
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SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 11 Сент.

The argument against "herding" is mostly used to prevent traders from entering at the end of a trend, when it is about to reverse. And it makes sense. because If you are about to do something that most traders have already done, it surely will not be profitable. But if you follow the market at the beginning of a trend, when most traders are still out of it, then the odds are in your favor. Following trends is a very good strategy, as long as traders do it well :)

alifari avatar
alifari 24 Сент.

nice read

captain avatar
captain 25 Сент.

An interesting point of view.

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In this article We are going to explore how to gauge Market Sentiment through different ways, primarily the CoT.Market Sentiment is purely how you feel about the the past, present and future state of the markets in regards to its current price. There are many popular sayings coined by traders such as "Trend is your friend" or "never catch a falling Knife". Many traders use Moving Averages to show Market sentiment. As its averages the previous number of periods, anywhere from 5 to 200. They might be willing to only trade with the direction of the MA, this in essence is Market Sentiment.If you are bullish then you believe the security that you are describing is going to appreciate in value and if you are bearish you believe the opposite.Methods of Identifying Market sentiment:Moving Averages:Firstly, you can use the aforementioned way using a Moving Average, for example, take a look at the EURJPY H4 chartSo you use the MA to decide which direction you trade in, as Bullish set-ups in the green box gain a lot of momentum and bearish reversals are sluggish and ineffective. vice versa for the blue box.News:This one is the most simple to understand but potentially the hardest to use. This…
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AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 17 Апр.

Today, the CoT numbers are calculated and after a recent rise in EUR, AUD, GBP etc. don't be surprised to see fewer shorts even though price isn't much different from last week (shorts covered, not longs added).

kkforex avatar
kkforex 18 Апр.

Interesting article 1+

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 20 Апр.

It's that time of the week again and the CFTC have released their CoT data for the previous week. CHF (125,000) net decreased by 3843. GBP(62,500) net increased by 1155 contracts. JPY (12,500,000) net decreased by 6641. EUR(125,000) Net decreased by 16761.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 27 Апр.

EUR shorts to 113K from 118K
JPY shorts to 56K from 58K
CHF shorts to 17K from 14K
AUD longs to 46K from 48K
CAD longs to 44K from 38K
NZD longs to 9K from 12K
GBP shifts from a net short 13K to a net long 8K.

scramble avatar
scramble 7 Май

i was writing down my article about COT data and (my bad) i didn't notice your until i checked april's winners.
My compliments to you and to your good article!
Wish you best success in your trading :-)

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I’ve heard a lot and have been discussed a lot about Futures contract and
Spot Forex. A lot of people try to argue that futures contracts are much “better”
than Spot Forex. The term “better” here could be interpreted in a way that it’s
easier and more transparent to trade with. In this article, I’ll try to break
through the argument.
People said that futures contracts are traded on a centralized exchange but
likewise spot forex is not being traded on a centralized exchange.  People
talk about the “shaving” and “shady” activities made by brokers since there is no
centralized exchange and also regulated exchange. People talk about how broker
profit from event such as news to widen spread or even to catch stoploss. Those
who talk to me use such argument to talk down spot forex not to be traded with
and there’re little way to profit unless you are a broker. 
It’s correct that spot forex is decentralized market. From what I’ve seen,
pricing is also a little bit different from broker to broker; and out there,
there’re a lot of shady brokers with no real information who take advantage of
trader to benefit themselves when they shading price and widen spreads or even
take out stoploss when…
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petefader avatar
petefader 29 Март

@foreverloser, I already told you, it would take time in this business. You must take it seriously, handling your loss, control your risk, and go with a set-up which has high percent of winning. Take a break, reflect yourself, what did you do wrong and then PM me, I'll give you more info.

petefader avatar
petefader 29 Март

@Rambo: I believe that scalper is quite difficult for us but for those arbitrageurs and quant funds, all they do is to catch 1/10 of a pip.

Victor avatar
Victor 29 Март

keep it up+

Gerrydavis74 avatar
Gerrydavis74 30 Март

Nice article and very informative.

foreverloser avatar
foreverloser 30 Март

Ok, Thx for the encouraging advice. Now, I could say, I almost gave up on forex haha

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Fundamental Analysis:There are 3 Analytical Processes used to determine a trade; Technical - Or using Charts and Probability.Price Action - Or looking at volume and Supply and Demand to see where price is headed.Fundamental - Looking at a Companies/Countries Economic indicators to determine the valuation of a company or a countries currency.Most "retailers" are told from the beginning not to trade 30 minutes around news events as there is heightened volatility and large swings. For me the reason is that Most people Don't have access to the Fastest, most accurate news services like a Bloomberg terminal.However in recent years, And more importantly since 2008, the markets are in the public domain more than ever. Because of this there is greater interest in economic releases and there are FREE services out there that can provide news within 30 seconds of the actual release.Now you might say that 30 seconds is too late to trade on the actual number - whether it be GDP numbers or NFP print -  but the Risk Appetite changes for the rest of the day unless anything is there to change it and so the move is likely to continue.For Example: Here is AUDUSD from Friday the 3rd February, where at …
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 11 Февр.

What about the Negative news in the Greek Bailout?...GBP/USD has fallen about 90 Pips after that news release.+1for Your Fundamental Analysis Article.Play Fair

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 12 Февр.

Yeah pretty much all risk appetite assets fell on that news. Greece is just messing up with all markets at the moment. Kind of frustrating but also adds some nice volatilty.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 12 Февр.

News update - Greece just passed an austerity bill and we saw the EURUSD rise 40 pips near instantly. Some see this as the turning point for greeces return to a normal economy, however with many underlying fiscal problems not to mention 500% 1yr yield.

Ltjere avatar
Ltjere 15 Февр.

Nice, very useful.

Bluedragon avatar
Bluedragon 29 Февр.

good luck +1 ;)

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 A divergence is when a security and a
related, normally highly correlated,
momentum oscillator or alternative pair move in opposite
Normally A trader can look to two highly
correlated stocks, futures, commodities and currency pairs to see if a
divergence is occuring between two. For example we may see the inverse DXY
(USD index) to be rising along with ES_F (Emini SP500 futures) when this
occurs something has to change...
Divergences are a low risk
way of picking tops or bottom in the markets as they are easy to spot and
even easier to trade profitably.
In this guide we will concentrate on using
indicators for a specific FX pair and not talk about intra-pair
To do this we will use momentum oscillators,
you can use anything from Stochastics, RSI, MACD (moving average
convergence DIVERGENCE) or even CCI.
Most strategies using indicators are LAGGING.
i.e. they require past price action to predict future such as a stochastic
crossover or RSI moving up under 30.
divergence trading are LEADING strategies.
Types of divergences:
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FX_Swingtrader avatar
FX_Swingtrader 13 Янв.

Quick Question - Would you recommend scalping with this or do you prefer Swing or longer timeframe trades.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 14 Янв.

Personally I prefer Swing trades with divergences as the moves made from these don't always follow fully throughso you have more time to react with swing trades. Also Any suggestions for a new article? What does everyone want to learn?

kkforex avatar
kkforex 18 Янв.

Nice writeup...especially hidden divergence 1+

men79 avatar
men79 21 Янв.

Very good ...

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 28 Янв.

Thanks everyone for their support, see you next month, I hope to include Elliot waves, Gann analysis and much more.

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Traders all around the world are looking for the best trades to make the most profit. Correlations are very important to a successful trader as traders can HEDGE positions or see if a correlated pair is about to BREAKOUT.  Correlations are a statistical measure of how two currency pairs move in relation to each other. A measure of -1 is when they track perfectly opposite to each other for example if EURUSD went up 100 pips and AUDUSD went down 100pips they would have a correlation value of -1. On the other hand A value of 1 is when they both move perfectly with each other. So both move up 100 pips together. It is very rare to find perfect correlations but some are very close to 1. However a common example is A BONDS yield and price. So for example If the Price of the bond rises the yield falls and vice versa this is perfectly inversely correlated. Here are some examples of Correlation over hourly charts on some of the most popular currency pairs. AUDUSD - EURUSD : 0.949 AUDUSD - NZDUSD : 0.998 AUDUSD - GBPUSD : 0.957 EURUSD - NZDUSD : 0.954 EURUSD - GBPUSD : 0.999 NZDUSD - GBPUSD : 0.962 As you can see here some such as AUDUSD - NZDUSD are very …
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FX_Swingtrader avatar
FX_Swingtrader 22 Дек.

Yeah Adrian I think you link is easier to understand thanks.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 22 Дек.

no problem. glad you are all liking my writing style.

masterfxtrader avatar
masterfxtrader 25 Дек.

quite complicated for the average trader with all the maths but very nice indeed.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 31 Дек.

Happy new year everyone, have a good and prosperous 2012.

skytrader avatar
skytrader 31 Дек.

happy new year to you too adrian. stay healthy! thanx for the fine work you provided with your articles! it is very useful information. hope you continue next year!

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