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This article is about what currencies and other asset classes I think is going to be the most at risk and can offer us the best opportunities in term of risk to reward ratio in the year ahead. 2016 has caused a lot of trauma in terms of volatility and it also builds up extreme trends that I would consider extreme because they don’t really fit between fundamental, technical and market conditions and that creates a lot of anxiety and it certainly curbs the potential for follow through. This kind of market conditions sends a clear warning that trends can reverse or at least give us a decent tradable retracement.
We’re going to look at a possible rebalancing of these divergent aspects and I think this is going to feed into the trading opportunities that we have in 2017.
EUR/USD Trade Opportunity for 2017
The EUR/USD is the most severe or at risk currency amongst the majors as the parity level will act as a catalyst and ultimately this will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, what is more important is what will happen with EUR/USD after the parity level is reached? I believe that the answer to this question will reveal the EUR/USD trade for 2017.
The monetary policy bearings th…
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rupesh1984 avatar
rupesh1984 18 Jan.

well done,speechless cant explain in word for ur deep analysis :)

Daytrader21 avatar

scramble Thanks

Daytrader21 avatar

rupesh1984 appreciate your kind words. I'm hoping and I'm confident that my forecast will be proven right by the markets.

TInna avatar
TInna 19 Jan.


brilliant avatar
brilliant 25 Jan.

nice work as usual. do you think  day traders can  benefit that kind of overall analysis ?

orto leave comments
In the following work I will introduce the Hurst Exponent and some briefexplanation of the known methodologies of estimation. The estimations made on this work will apply to closing prices on different time frames and pair crosses, using exclusively the Detrending Moving Average[1]analysis, which from here on will be indicated as DMA.
The Hurst Exponent is applied in a vast range of disciplines, fromhydrology, where it was first introduced, to computer networks, medicine, biology, and of course: Finanace. The parameter was first introduced in 1951 by Harold Hurst (1880-1978), a British Hydrologist who, at that time, was in charge of determining the optimum dam sizing of the Nile river. Yearly observations on the levels of the Nile river where available, covering a fairly long period of time in which consecutive observations seemed to be correlated, showing a long-term memory. Hurst implemented a new statistical method to estimate the long term memory: The Rescaled Range Analysis, widely described in his book[2].
The Hurst exponent (H) can only assume values between 0 a 1. The following table shows how to interpret the different values of H.
Estimation Metho[/2][/1]…
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salamandra avatar

Главный вопрос о стохастичности временного ряда форекса всегда под вопросом. Вмешательство центральных банков... новостей и других показателей... часто густо убивают стохастичность ряда на корню... Получается, что о стохастичности возможно говорить на разных участках времени, а это уже другой подход к анализу.

TheCircellator avatar

Thanks for the comment salamandra , i had a hard time understanding it since web-based translators are not that good, and i'm not pretty sure what you meant! Cheers, Paolo.

orto leave comments
We explicitly present below the distinctions between the hypothesis of efficient markets and the hypothesis of fractal markets and give an account of the important quantities to watch when trading in a fractal market. Finally, we present a straight forward algorithm to trade in such market.
The efficient market hypothesis is a naïve first approximation to the financial markets. It assumes that all investors are the same: everyone has the same information gathered at the same time, share the same interest rate, and build the same expectations. This is highly unintuitive, and depending on the version of this hypothesis it implies that the markets are static until new information is revealed or that its movements are just random and totally unpredictable. According to this hypothesis, trading is just gamble, as no consistent strategy can be designed. In particular, the efficient markets hypotheses assume that there is no memory in the markets, and thus there is no possibility to identify patterns, trends and resistances do not exist, and so forth.
The fractal market hypothesis is far less restrictive. It imposes only that the market laws are independent from the scale you look at …
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Airmike avatar
Airmike 22 Mar.

Definitely type of article I like. :) looking forward to results.

orto leave comments

There are many ways to skin a cat and that certainly applies to market analysis methods as well. There are no guarantees when it comes to defining price movements but in my humble opinion the most interesting approach a trader can apply is the philosophy that a market is fractal in nature. Fractals not only that can explain price movement but it can give you a road map, so to speak, for the future price action.
One things that consistently works is where price action repeat itself because of many reasons particularly because nature of events are quite similar and more importantly because participants tends to do the same type of things, they have the same profile in terms of their emotions, aspiration, greed, fear, hope and also that is true even today when algorithms and robots dominate the markets because they are subject to the same type of behavior.
  • What is a Fractal?
Based on Wikipedia definition:"Fractals are typically self-similar patterns, where self-similar means they are "the same from near as from far".Fractals may be exactly the same at every scale, or they may be nearly the same at different scales.The definition of fractal goes beyond self-similarity per se to exclude
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Daytrader21 avatar

@DumbAsArock lol....I have to say that I'mfascinated about fratclas andthe way they can explain market movements. Thanks

WallStreetBlog avatar



very helpful thanks daytrader21

Daytrader21 avatar

@WallStreet @Hoang_Mai_NHI thank you guys

Rnesbitt avatar
Rnesbitt 28 Jan.

Great article. Hope to see more about forex and fractals in the future.

orto leave comments
The following strategy was created solely based on Bill Williams indicators. It makes use of three of the Chaos Theory indicators, which will give us essential technical market analysis.It works on any pair and any timeframe, however, I like to use smaller timeframes in order to keep my stop losses low and enter and exit the market quickly.THE INDICATORSAwesome Oscillator - MomentumDetermines market momentum at a given time on the last 5 bars, comparing them to the momentum on the last 34 bars.Fractal Lines - BreakoutA buy fractal is a series of five consecutive bars where the highest high is preceded by two lower highs and is followed by two lower highs. The opposite would be a sell fractal.Fractal Lines indicator - which comes with Dukascopy JForex - makes it easier to detect and analyze fractals.Alligator - Trend DirectionBill Williams described the Alligator as being a compass, helping to spot the trends and ranges.ENTRY RULESAwesome Oscillator is near zero - which means there is no momentumAlligator is closed and tight and inside the Fractals lines - no trend is definedFractal Lines are broken - it marks the entry to the side the channel is brokenSTOP LOSSStop losses are place…
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tulasi avatar
tulasi 24 Apr.

it looks like great strategy .can you explain more on how you are exiting the trades.(those red arrows).i would also like to know how it works on longer time frames.

AlligatorEffect avatar

Thank you scramble!

AlligatorEffect avatar

@tulasi, on longer timeframes the procedure is exactly the same. However, if you confirm with a higher timeframe, like D1 and W1, you wouldn't come up with many trades. The easiest way to exit is when the price crosses the green alligator line (which is the fastest). For example, on a long trade, you can exit when the price closes below the green line. It is used as a "live" support/resistance. The other way is candle trailing: after a very strong move of a couple or three candles, you can close the trade after 2 consecutive opposite bars, for eg. I recommend the alligator trailing.

ATjoa avatar
ATjoa 22 Aug.

Hi AlligatorEffect, please check your personal message in Dukascopy. thanks

Misani avatar
Misani 16 Dec.

Do you have back tested it? maybe have you VFS code?
If you combine it with this strategy ( I think the result will be perfect.

orto leave comments
First of all I would like to
thank everybody that made a comment or add a like to my previous strategies. Be
sure that I have many more ideas – original and not just copy from another site
or book. 
 So lets 
go  and see the third   winning
Your vote will make me go on publishing so add comments and put on some
 , any time frame .
On our diagram we put
the EMA 13  and the Fractals ( up and
down ) .
We don’t need
anything else,  just these two things .
Use 1 hour time frame
or higher. The bigger the time frame the less the false signals  .
 -----So our chart is ready.
 Now let us see   how it
works . Don’t think that is something difficult.
 We watch for fractals to being formed. When
the current candle goes up ( penetrates ) the last up fractal  that was formed and we are over the EMA 13 ,
then we open a  long  position. When the current candle   goes
down  ( penetrates ) the last down
fractal and we are lower than  the EMA 13
,we open a  short position.
Now we had our
entrance for long   or short position  and we have to determine our target . That’s  where  we
are using the fibo numbers  putting the  0 % and 100 %…
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fskliris avatar
fskliris 29 Feb.

and this system worked perfectly on our target. Fantastic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

fskliris avatar
fskliris 29 Feb.

Very strong support for the pair at 1.3357 and 1.3330

fskliris avatar
fskliris 29 Feb.

i think that movement stoped between my support levels

fskliris avatar
fskliris 29 Feb.

in the next month competition i will come up with new fantastic strategies . A lt ideas , new and always winning .

efxaris avatar
efxaris 1 Mar.

It is really great

orto leave comments