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1. Introduction.
Le présent article propose une étude prospective d'évolution à moyen terme du dollar australien au travers de trois paires de devises : AUD/USD, EUR/AUD et AUD/JPY. Nous passerons en revue, dans un premier temps, l'état de l'économie australienne, ses forces et ses faiblesses et terminerons par une analyse graphique des paires de devises dont mention ci-avant.

2. Aspect économique

L’économie australienne a connu une croissance de 3,5% l'an tout au long de ces vingt dernières années conjuguée à une inflation contrôlée. Le taux de chômage reste encore aujourd'hui très bas, à moins de 6%.
La dette publique reste modéré, à moins de 30 % du produit intérieur brut. A titre comparatif, la dette publique du Japon s'élève à 250% de son PIB, celle des États-Unis a atteint 105% et pour la zone Euro, 86% de son PIB. La croissance économique que l'Australie a connu, s'explique avant tout par la forte demande de la Chine en matières premières. Certes, le secteur des services génère à lui seul 80% du PIB australien contre 10% pour les matières premières mais ce secteur a soutenu toute l'économie par les profits et investissements qu'il a généré dans tous les autres secteurs d…
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very good Article

Milian avatar
Milian 27 May

interesting article!)

williamb avatar
williamb 28 May

detailed and accurate

Faster avatar
Faster 29 May


PipPoint avatar
PipPoint 3 June


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1. Introduction
Les pays exportateurs de pétrole se sont réunis ce dimanche 17 avril en vue d’endiguer la chute des prix du baril. Était en autre présent à ce sommet, les pays membres de L'OPEP, la Russie mais l'Iran et la Libye ont décliné l'invitation. L'objectif de la réunion visait à trouver un accord en vu d'ajuster l'offre de pétrole à la demande actuelle du marché afin de soutenir les cours du brut.
Pour certains, il s'agit là d'un besoin impérieux en ce sens qu'un prix du Baril bas trop longtemps met leur économie en danger. C'est le cas pour le Venezuela dont l'économie tient quasi exclusivement à l'exportation de pétrole et dont les coûts d'extraction et de raffinage sont plus élevés mais également de la Russie qui doit faire face aux sanctions économiques et à un rouble faible.
En janvier 2016, le Brent a atteint un plus bas à 27$ avec une moyenne à 30,6$. Les prix ont certes remonté à 44$, soit un gain de 50% par rapport au plus bas mais restent inférieur de 30% par rapport à la moyenne de 2015 et bien loin des sommets à plus de 120$ de 2012.
Le niveau faible des prix s'explique par l'excédent de l'offre sur le marché qui ne s'est pas adapté au ralentissement de l'écono…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar

very good article!

SvetLena avatar
SvetLena 25 Apr.


hrustiashka avatar

Good article!

JuliannaS avatar

Every time, well done article

Faster avatar
Faster 29 May


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This article (if you'd like to call it an article) will be strictly technical and based on andrew's pitchfork analysis of the weekly and daily charts of EUR/USD. So here are the charts:
This is an analysis of the pitchfork, which, as you can see in the first weekly chart, is respected by the price action, meaning that the median line served as strong support in Q2 and Q3 of 2015. Then at Q4 we broke this support and revisited the 1.05 region, which has both strong psychological and volume wise barrier, ie. bids are very strong at this level.
The euro just can't keep falling forever as the short trade is way too overcrowded. This gave rise to the short squeeze on the ECB event, where just in one day bears got ripped apart. This is the turning point for the euro, as all the fundamental dire straits have been priced in over the last year or so. Holding a euro short position these days feels like holding a hot potato, where fund managers are looking for a way and excuse to cover the shorts (preferably before year end). By an excuse I mean any event that will bring about volatility and volume, for example, even if the NFP's are a blowout number then they will cover their shorts into tha…
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Maxim3 avatar
Maxim3 13 Jan.

good writing

Anastasia_Sidneva avatar

very interesting

fx211pips avatar
fx211pips 14 Jan.

today the price opened on the boundary of the minor pitchfork in pink, wicked below and went back up again, this pitchfork really is working nicely

fx211pips avatar
fx211pips 16 Jan.

well, it's not working nicely with the article results:)

massimoscalas avatar

very interesting!

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Todos los días aparecen oportunidades en el mercado de divisas, curiosamente la oportunidades aparecen a toro pasado, son oportunidades desaprovechadas, esto genera frustración y provoca precipitación en la siguiente decisión. La consistencia se basa en la capacidad de caer en la cuenta todo el tiempo cuando las probabilidades están a favor y cuando hay que estar fuera del mercado, con la serie de artículos "Idea de Trading semanal" sobre el GBPUSD, analizare el mejor momento para entrar en el mercado durante la semana minimizando el riesgo.
El Método
Cada semana mediante el análisis técnico estudiare la situación de varios horizontes temporales para tener un visión global sobre la fuerza dominante, estudiaré en primer lugar el horizonte temporal mayor e iré disminuyendo horizontes temporales menores quitando capas como si el mercado fuera una cebolla, me informaré de las noticias macro económicas con un gran impacto en la volatilidad en el par GBPUSD y por ultimo concluiré con la oportunidad con más probabilidad de éxito según lo evaluado. El método para determinar el punto de entrada y salida en el mercado será: "La regla del 76,40%" , esta regla la explique en el …
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Rita1808 avatar
Rita1808 28 Oct.

Good article!

Julia_Zhulinskaya avatar

хорошее объяснение!

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In my article I want to discuss my predictions for and the impact of the most important macroeconomic data releases in the last week of May on the main currency pairs on FOREX. Current fluctuations, very often quite substantial, are very much due to the macroeconomic situation in the largest economies and as a result the monetary policies implemented by various central banks. What I am trying to say here is that in my opinion technical analysis should be currently put aside and traders should concentrate more on the fundamentals as this will be the prevailing factor in the upcoming days/weeks impacting the prices of various currency pairs. If you disagree with me I still think it is worth reading and analyzing as trading during the macroeconomic data releases is a good opportunity for profit.
Photo: Stuart Miles
The Fed chairwoman Yellen in her speech last Friday has made it clear that an interest rate hike this year is quite certain even though after the optimist start of the year a slight slowdown in the US economy might still linger. The impact of this statement will probably prevail during the upcoming week and strengthen the dollar. However, during…
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MobNaga avatar
MobNaga 26 May

nice article :)

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks :)

anna_t avatar
anna_t 26 May


al_dcdemo avatar

Nice effort! But the article could've been made much more readable, if you'd have used a bit more spacing, especially line breaks.

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks:) I have copy/pasted it from an editor and it looked fine, just as I edited it, but once I posted it, it came out like this:( Don't really know the reason

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Picking a very beginning of the next swing is a difficult and often – costly objective for a trader. But these kinds of trades when you catch it and you know that you just caught the major turnaround, gives not only immense profits and an opportunity to induce escape velocity on your capital growth. Such trades give this wonderful feeling of calmness and an opportunity to really enjoy trading for a change from these extreme everyday stresses that it produces.
I wrote on this topic a few years ago in my older article “Picking Tops and Bottoms” and I touched several and very different aspects, like: oversold/overbought concept, psychological context and risk management. Now, with greatly increased price action understanding I can approach this topic again, but from a different - technical analysis stand point of view. What exactly should be looked for in this ultimate indicator of financial markets?
There are two general principles of price behavior when it comes to major reversals. In a way, these principles are the opposites to each other and both implements the extreme opposite to a sentiment in the market. Yes, that’s a psychological play against the crowd and that is what price …
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CriticalSection avatar

Good work and effort.

MobNaga avatar
MobNaga 26 Mar.

nice work!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Mar.

Great market understanding, very useful PA concepts, excellent job!

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

Nice job! What TP after such breakouts?

alifari avatar
alifari 31 Mar.

Excellent article.

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Many of the
major pairs in the currency market have been at crucial crossroads for the past
few days as they have yet to provide us with a clear direction for the month of
July. Some have been moving sideways ever since the end of the recent 2-month
period of risk-aversion that benefited the Yen and the US Dollar, while others
have reversed this trend in sync with the recent return of risk-appetite. As I
examine some of these currencies, we will notice that their direction will
depend on what takes place at major technical turning points.
The direction
that these and other pairs will take this month will also determine the choice
of trades that I will make as part of my goal to be Dukascopy’s Trader of the
Month for July. My strategy will involve trading several 100 - Pip moves in the
direction of the major trends across several currency pairs.
After the large
breakout from consolidation in May that led to gains for the USD, the currency
has now settled above the major support line of the Monthly Chart´s Pennant.
The Daily Chart had begun to rally from this area and even broke the downtrend
line that had defined the previous trend, but t…
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Likerty avatar
Likerty 13 July

Just would love to see deeper analysis and it would be enough for EurUsd pair

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 15 July

ok, what sort of detail you looking for Likerty?

madihazulfiqar avatar

good luck

OneGoodTrade avatar

Keep up the good work.

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 27 July


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First of all I would like to thank everybody that read,  added likes and wrote comments for my
previous articles .
So let’s  go  and see the first one of the new contest
Your vote will make me go on publishing ,so add comments and put on some
Every day from this page there will be market analysis and market
forecasts especially for EURUSD and other major FX pairs . So stay tuned.
We use BB bands ( 21,2,2) and RSI (14) with 30 and 70 oversold and
overbought levels .
Very  important part for  this system is having small spread and no major news releases due out for the USD or EUR during
the time if this the pair you want to trade with .
Trade EUR/USD pair  with this system.
The first
indicator we are going to use is the Bollinger Bands, (parameters
21 and 2 and 2).
You will notice that these act
as support and resistance levels,as price penetrates the Bollinger Bands  it normally retraces at least back to the
centre line .
We also need to know when the
price is oversold at the same time as it is outside the Bollinger Bands.
So the Second indicator we
will be using is the RSI ( parameters 14 ).
 You are now set up perfect…
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pipino2 avatar
pipino2 27 Mar.

thank you for the great article!

fskliris avatar
fskliris 27 Mar.

The pattern below 1.5910 high is corrective in nature, thus preceding next leg upwards, for a test of 1.5993 high. Initial support is projected at 1.5820, followed by the major one at 1.5750.

fskliris avatar
fskliris 28 Mar.

Although the pair continues to trade above 1.3290 major support, thus preserving the bullish outlook on the senior frames, I expect a break through 1.3290 to mark a reversal at 1.3385, and to initiate a slide towards 1.3005.

fskliris avatar
fskliris 28 Mar.

Although the pullback after yesterday's high at 83.38 is deeper than anticipated, my outlook remains bullish for a break through 83.40, towards 84.17 highs. Initial support on the downside is 82.50, followed by the major one at 81.90.

fskliris avatar
fskliris 28 Mar.

Yesterday's test of 1.6000 resistance area failed and current intraday bias is already negative below 1.5945 zone. I expect a break through 1.5900 key support to unleash a sell-off for 1.5750 area.

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As we move into
the 2nd week of trading in the New Year, these three currency pairs
have provided us with strong technical signals that are in sync with the
deteriorating outlook for the Euro and the increasing appeal of the USD as a
safe-haven currency. Similar to the recent sharp declines in the EURO AUD and
EURO CAD pairs, the downtrends for the EURO USD and the EURO GBP are set to
continue following bearish signals towards the end of the first week of
Likewise, the USD
CHF which is negatively correlated with the EURO USD, has given a strong
bullish signal that indicates continued buying of the USD as risk-aversion
actions become in vogue once more. In this brief analysis, I will first indicate
the likely targets for each of these pairs and then provide the technical
justification supporting these forecasts of which you can take advantage using
your preferred trading strategy.
Based on the signals given, these
are the respective targets that are likely to be met. Short-Term refers to the next 7 to 21 days, Medium-Term the next 1-2 months and Long-Term the next 2-6 Months.
USD CHF – 0,9716
(Short-Term); 1,1000 (Medium Term)
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 10 Jan.

I make my analysis with diferent Instruments, and I also use Range Bars Charts. Check Them out if You have Time and Interest,+3

Tinktank avatar
Tinktank 18 Jan.

Impressed with your in-depth analysis, keep it up

ritesh avatar
ritesh 19 Jan.

keep more coming buddy, you write great stuff +1

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Last month few trading forecasts were presented in form of an article for your kind reading and comments. The trades were of risk reward ratio from 1:2 to 1:4, while the win loss ratio (which is not that important) was 83%.Let's review those trades in this article and few new trades forecasts would be presented for your kind review.Forecast 1: AUD/CAD, Go long at 1.0160 for target of 1.0440, SL 1.01 (RRR 1:4)Review: The price came to the lows of 1.0110 and without hitting the Stop Loss, went upside for a high of 1.0525, giving us the 280 pips as expected from the trade.Forecast 2: GBP/NZD, go short from 2.17 for 1.9 (RRR 1:4)Review: The price moves down halfway, without giving us an entry. The daily chart made a nice bearish gartley harmonic pattern and price went lower after making three confirmed divergences on hourly chart.Forecast 3: EUR/NOK, go short from 7.86 for 7.73, SL 7.79 (RRR 1:3)Review: The pair indeed went south, giving us perfect entry at 7.86, as the high was made at 7.8650 on 29 Nov. The target of 1300 pips was achieved in 1 day!Forecast 4: USD/NOK, go short from 5.79 for 5.48, SL 6.1 (RRR 1:2)Review: This trade got entry and is still ON. With a unrealized profit o…
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ritesh avatar
ritesh 13 Dec.

@doctortyby: the trades are a part of the trading journal and article was made based on few of the trades I took last month. thanks for your question.

ritesh avatar
ritesh 13 Dec.

@TheLimit: win-loss ratio does not matters much, it's all about Risk-Reward ratio. we can make money with a system whose winning percentage is less than 50%.!!

ritesh avatar
ritesh 13 Dec.

thanks to MuiDEA for your support. You're doing great in strategy and trader contest. Wish you all the best :)

ante777 avatar
ante777 26 Dec.

Great article and I amm looking for more forecats in the future.1+.

ritesh avatar
ritesh 27 Dec.

Thank you ante777, I'd post more forecasts in mid-January 2012. :D)

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