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27/32
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Hints and Ideas about FX Majors

Ideas from last week :

  • USD enjoyed a ride against most currencies as US data helped a lot, ADP and NFP employment data were better, Wages growth at 2.9% VS 2.6% expected and all of this helped expectation of higher interest rate at (FED) March meeting.
  • Euro still hold last month gains VS majors as EU data still helpful, also most of (ECB) speakers agreed that next normalization step should be soon and some hint that QE may end at September meeting and all of this helpful for Euro bulls.
  • Aussie got a hit last week as most AUD data disappointed, Mean CPI Q/Q 0.6% VS 0.7 expected, Building approvals -20% VS -7% expected and all of this put heavy weight on Aussie.
  • Kiwi moved in mixed VS majors as no significant Kiwi data last week but Kiwi mostly affected by drop of Aussie which in most time move in same direction VS majors.
[list][/list]…
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32/57
Ranking
The markets are quite, not just because its August and many investors are on leave but also in anticipation to Jackson Hole meeting. So, why is this tiny place usually known for its winter ski complex, such an important economic event ?
Many of the world’s most powerful financial players and policymakers will gather for three days in Jackson Hole, a mountain resort in Wyoming. It goes back to 1978, when the first meeting of such kind was held and since then it offers a chance for central bankers, finance ministers and academics to talk about the world economy in a public but informal setting. The event is formally the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s “Economic Symposium”. All 12 of the Fed’s district banks organize research conferences. So how did Jackson Hole become Davos for central bankers?
The first one, on “World Agricultural Trade: The Potential for Growth”, took place in Kansas City, Missouri, where the bank is based. In 1982 the conference moved to Jackson Hole (which is in the Kansas City district) and persuaded Paul Volcker, then chairman of the Fed and an avid fly-fisherman, to attend. In a textbook case of network effects, Volcker’s regular attendance attracted oth…
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Sennna88 avatar
Sennna88 30 Aug.

thanks!

s_amira avatar
s_amira 31 Aug.

Good article!

TInna avatar
TInna 1 Sep.

good! very very!!!

amerfx86 avatar
amerfx86 2 Sep.

great story, well done

sonjatrader avatar

Great article Senna

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11/52
Ranking
There are many elements that, when put together, produce a great trader. If you look and read about them, you will usually find three different types of analysis: technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis. If you continue reading, they will tell you that if you analyze properly from the technical aspect, as well as take into consideration context of the currency pair i.e. fundamental analysis, you will do well as a trader. However, this is only partially true.
One of the main reasons why very few brilliant scholars can make their way into trading, lies in their trading plan, or the lack of one. Out of many Forex experts I follow on Twitter, only one or two of them have a background in finance/economics. If you ask why, your answer lies in the title of this article - Trading plan. Instead of reading endless papers on how to define your trading plan, I advise to use Trading Contest to practice and most importantly, to learn how to trade in the right way. And that is: by limiting your position size (risk management), defining trade parameters (entry, SL and TP) as well as trying to stick to your plan.
Fundamental analysis

Each and every morning when I go through all charts, I for…
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ARASHFATHI avatar
ARASHFATHI 29 June

great work

Natali_Niyazova avatar

well done!

Sennna88 avatar
Sennna88 29 June

Thanks a lot both of you!

zarina avatar
zarina 30 June

Спасибо , очень  интересная статья !

Sennna88 avatar
Sennna88 30 June

much appreciated :)

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17/52
Ranking
Review of the last week
Beginning last week marked the continuation of pressure on the dollar for the last nfp who was disappointed and I went out to the data of only 38k in relation to the expected 165k. But as Sunday progressed dollar is coming back all the losses and the finals Sunday press the advantage in relation to other currencies.
Although the euro was one of the currencies that have strengthened the most against the dollar in the nfp despite good data that marked last week and especially more than expected gdp in the EU, euro is start to loosing momentum on the end of the week. Reason for that we can find in brexit polls where Britons will decide to stay in EU or not. Last polls shows that ,,leave” have some advantage and that bring risk for both UK and EU. Because of that euro and pound was on the big pressure on the two last days of the week.
Usdcad was very choopy last week and the main reason for that is that oil was on the crucial resistance and some false breakout and bouncing from resistance level of 51.6$ lead huge volatility on usdcad. This pair fall around 150 pips last week but that can be worst for usd because in the last two days usd recover on almost all …
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Sennna88 avatar
Sennna88 16 June

Great and detailed analysis. What is your opinion of this pair after Australian employment report ?

klintons avatar
klintons 16 June

Perfect

JuliannaS avatar
JuliannaS 25 June

Detailed and good written .  I like to read it

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 25 June

very nice

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3/51
Ranking

1. Introduction.

L'EUR/USD a déployé une puissante vague haussière propulsant le cours de 1,08 à 1,14 en moins d'un mois. Ce faisant, des niveaux de résistances importants ont été franchis : 1,1220/1,1300/1,1380.Cette tendance à la hausse se caractérise par des impulsions haussières des volumes d'échange qui chutent lors des retracements du cours.
L'eurodoll évolue actuellement non loin des plus hauts de cinq mois, vers 1,1440. L'ensemble de ces constatations semble de bon augure pour une poursuite de la tendance, nous y reviendrons plus longuement.

2. Aspect fondamental.

L'EUR/USD connaît cependant un répit après la publication la semaine dernière des chiffres US. Les chiffres mensuels sur l'emploi publiés vendredi passé ont été meilleurs que prévu avec 215.000 créations d'emploi non-agricoles en mars.
De même pour l'indice SMI qui montre que l'économie US est en bonne santé en dépit d'une conjoncture internationale morose.
Il semble toutefois que ces conditions favorables ne soient pas suffisantes pour un relèvement des taux d’intérêt US. C'est en substance le discours prudent de Yanet Yellen la semaine dernière sur un éventuel resserrement monétaire qui de toute évidence ne…
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Yulia10 avatar
Yulia10 22 Apr.

nice article!

hrustiashka avatar

Very interesting and informative.

AlinaSelina avatar

Very good job!

JuliannaS avatar

informative , well written.

Milian avatar
Milian 24 May

good article)

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33/66
Ranking
Introduction
In this article NZDUSD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the NZDUSD.
What is affected the move of NZDUSD nowadays:

Fundamental analysis:
NZDUSD is affected now by two different policies by both Reserve bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by commodity prices especially diary milk which strongly hit Kiwi in the last year, finally Kiwi and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
[list][/list]…
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WallStreet6 avatar

Interesting

fx211pips avatar
fx211pips 24 Mar.

good analysis of the kiwi

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 31 Mar.

useful information!

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37/66
Ranking
Introduction
In this article AUDUSD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the AUDUSD.
What is affected the move of AUDUSD nowadays:
Fundamental analysis:
AUDUSD is affected now by two different policies by both Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by commodity prices which strongly hit Aussie in the last year, finally Aussie and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
[list][/list]…
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WallStreet6 avatar

Interesting

VALTRAD avatar
VALTRAD 24 Mar.

Первый сценарий тоже считаю наиболее вероятным.

khalidamassi avatar

Thanks everyone for support

khalidamassi avatar

Scenario 1 still preferred for me as 0.7400 holds.

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

very good article!

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29/66
Ranking

The recent fall in oil prices is causing a downturn in stock markets all over the world.
Oil companies facing negative balance sheets are being pushed into labour force cuts and to delay future investments.
Times are also though for US shale oil producers. They have once deposited hopes that Saudi Arabia could bring some balance to the market. After the latest “freezing” negotiation developments, their last hopes might have completely vanished. Reporting Ellen R. Wald, [1] Modern Trader Magazine columnist:
Saudi Arabia can produce a barrel of oil at a cost of about $2. Even the best shale producers cannot produce a
barrel of oil for less than $50 a barrel. (...)

OPEC is not coming to bail out the shale oil producers. (...)

Saudi Arabia does not feel their pain (...) [it] may even welcome these minor inconveniences (...) [moving national]
economy towards some diversification.

Times are tough for shale producers and bankruptcies and asset sales are increasing. (...) Any relief producers
thought would come (...)
has not materialized.

OPEC member Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC Russia reached a principle of agreement on February 16th to freeze oil production at January's levels. Joining the Saudi[/moving][/it][/1]…
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wisdom_consultant avatar

very nice article! thank u!

EliasOmar avatar
EliasOmar 22 Mar.

well done bro ..

art_Alena avatar
art_Alena 24 Mar.

very good article!

angelina_may avatar

i like your pictures))

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 31 Mar.

good article!

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27/66
Ranking
Introduction
In this article USDCHF will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the USDCHF.
What is affected the move of USDCHF nowadays:
Fundamental analysis:
USDCHF is affected now by two different policies by both The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by The Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervention in Forex market which strongly hit CHF, finally CHF and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
  • Different policies by SNB and FED:

SNB intervened in Forex market several times, every time, it said that it will intervene if necessary to avoid any strong gains for CHF against currencies especially against EUR.
In different, US FED has just raised interest rate for the first time from ten years, FED delayed its first rate hike more than once in order to prevent broad US$ gains which may dampen US growth, this time rate hike is very near but if something horrible hit markets again, more rate hike may be delayed more.
[list]…
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alias1980 avatar

khalidamassi you can work the analyst )

isomere avatar
isomere 10 Mar.

useful analysis, thank you.

Nihad avatar
Nihad 11 Mar.

Nice analysis Khaled, FED and SNB are apparently on policy divergence, but the actual state of the US economy will force the FED to policy converge not only with the SNB, but mainly with the ECB, BOJ and PBoC. Therefore, my humble opinion is that testing the 1030 is unlikely. However, it was nice reading your fundamental analysis for this pair. Good luck Bro

khalidamassi avatar

Thanks Nihad, I am very proud of your opinion, analysis for the near time, often changes takes much time to happen, may FED follow ECB and BOJ but when ???

WallStreet6 avatar

Interesting

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26/76
Ranking
What is Negative Interest Rate Policy?:

A negative interest rate policy is an unconventional monetary policy tool employed by Central Banks where the nominal interest rate is below zero hence the term negative. It is unconventional because instead of the depositors earning money for their deposits in Banks, the depositors are charged for their deposits in the banks. Negative interest rate do not directly impact small investors but can indirectly have effect from the spillover of banks having deposits at other big banks/central banks.
Why Negative Interest Rate Policy?

The policy of negative interest rate is employed when the central bank observes in its economy of the following :
  1. Low or no growth
  2. Deflation
  3. Hoard of money by people and business
Central Bank’s policy aim is to make people and businesses to spend and invest money instead of keeping money at the bank and to stop prices from falling, increase real production and output, and decrease of unemployment. Such loose and expansionary monetary policy is employed usually to deal with such stagnation in the economy.
When a Central Bank has set a negative interest rate, it means depositor will be charged for keeping their mone…
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zarina avatar
zarina 27 Feb.

You are waiting for the fall of the Euro ?

Nihad avatar
Nihad 27 Feb.

Good luck buddy

wisdom_consultant avatar

nice article

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44/76
Ranking
Introduction
In this article EURUSD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the EURUSD.
What is affected the move of EUR/USD nowadays:
Fundamental analysis:
EURUSD is affected now by two different policies by both European Center Bank (ECB) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by ECB quantitative easing which strongly hit Euro, finally Euro and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
[list][/list]…
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wisdom_consultant avatar

nice article

zarina avatar
zarina 27 Feb.

I read your article! worked hard !

Nihad avatar
Nihad 27 Feb.

بالتوفيق اخى الكريم

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41/76
Ranking
Introduction
In this article, GBP/USD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex, so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the GBP /USD.
What is affected the move of GBP/USD nowadays:
Fundamental Analysis:
GBP/USD is affected now by two different policies by both Bank of England (BOE) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected sometimes by UK internal issues like last Scotland independence and UK exit from European Union (EU), finally pound and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
[list][/list]…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar

good analysis!

Kbelestro avatar
Kbelestro 16 Feb.

Отлично!

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 21 Feb.

useful information!

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31/76
Ranking
Introduction
In this article USDJPY will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the USDJPY.
What is affected the move of USD/JPY nowadays:
Fundamental analysis
USD/JPY is affected now by two different policies by both Bank of Japan (BOJ) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by BOJ quantitative easing which strongly hit Japanese Yen, finally Yen and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
[list][/list]…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar

weel done! it seems now is scenario #3

khalidamassi avatar

Yeah, natallia we r now exactly in scenario #3 with big target ....

zarina avatar
zarina 12 Feb.

I wish you, the option that is waiting!

FX90 avatar
FX90 19 Feb.

good article

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 21 Feb.

great article!  good luck!

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5/66
Ranking
1.0 Moment before Fed Interest Rate Increase
The market is nervous, but not for the sake of raising interest rates, as was to be expected, but because of the anticipation of the reasons that the Federal Reserve will follow this decision, since it will be formulated to predict when will be followed by a new pickup.
Aggressively raising interest rates, at which the central bank lends money to others, will increase the interest rates charged by banks to companies and might endanger the US economy, but also bring instability on the stock exchange.
Investors want a Fed indicated a slow and gradual series of raising interest rates, which will allow for periodic review of the state of the economy in order to establish that the economy is stable enough to withstand the new increase in interest rates.
Federal Reserve your interest rate to a record low slashed 2008 to help the financial system to overcome the crisis.
Fed officials in recent months announced gradually raising the benchmark interest rate, but investors want to hear on Wednesday new guarantees.
One of the factors that could affect the gradual lifting of interest is the absence of inflationary pressures, since inflation remains …
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nahimkha avatar
nahimkha 29 Dec.

USDJPY is in range.waiting to see new direction.thanks.

albertpip avatar
albertpip 29 Dec.

Like indicators on charts.Good charts - well done.

khalidam avatar
khalidam 30 Dec.

Lovely charts. Keep going.

pipericky avatar
pipericky 30 Dec.

What is your favorite pair for January 2016 ?

ImranMughal99 avatar

good

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2/43
Ranking
In this article we’re going to look at both the technical setup as well as the fundamental themes that have been dictating the movements in the FX Market for the month of September and what’s going to drive the market forward in the coming month. The fact that we haven’t been able to see a rally in the equity market and a continuous decline in the US Dollar it tells us that something significant is happening, and that is a shift in the belief of monetary policy and its influences over the markets. We know that the monetary policy is one of the more proactive, impressive and constantly present mover in the market, it’s a theme that has been responsible for much of the moves that we had over the past month and year as well.
  • EUR/USD Fundamental&Technical Analysis

Without a doubt the major event of the month of September was the FED rate decision to hold interest rates near historically low level. However, despite no rate hike the Fed still remains one of the major Central Banks that still has a hawkish stance and the fact that they have stopped easing it’s reason enough to support the US Dollar at least in the short term. In comparison, the ECB is on the other side of the monetary …
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Daytrader21 avatar

Thank you all for the good words

Decebal avatar
Decebal 23 Oct.

Supetr article!

foreignexchange avatar

Great article, thanks Daytrader21

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 28 Oct.

Great, long, useful, interesting!! And this is all words for you) Because you have a good article)!

marius24 avatar
marius24 29 Oct.

as usual this article is well written and so far you predicted quite precisely Eur/usd

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