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8/41
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Back in May and June the euro weakened substantially versus the us dollar and by all appearances it looked like it would be revisiting the June 2010 low of 1.1875. In addition, the euro's weak yearly high of 1.3486 gave some indication that it would even fall below that level.The Greek debt crisis and credit downgrades of several European countries put severe downward pressure on the euro.  Looking at the daily chart, what we have seen however is the euro forming a (temporary?) low of 1.2042 on July 22nd and that is where it started to gather market support on the following days. On the daily chart we can see the 2 candles preceding the July 24th candle reaching higher lows as did the 2 candles that followed The July 26th candle . In fact the 2nd candle that followed the July 26th candle made it above the sma10 and the cci(10) broke above 0. This kind of formation gives a strong indication that a low has formed at that level (see my artcle http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?Picking-Tops-And-Bottoms&action=read&id=906#read-article). Looking at the daily chart again we see that on the following days the candles stayed above the sma10 and cci(10) 0. A ca…
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Likerty avatar
Likerty 2 Aug.

I like technical analysis articles. Much more than those about why people lose or why people win in forex..

Likerty avatar
Likerty 2 Aug.

Ahh and about yerly low - I guess the correct quostion is - WHERE will that low be..:))

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11/48
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The euro reached a high of 1.4939 in the Spring of 2012, and has seen a steady decline ever since.The Greek debt crisis and the the credit rating downgrade of several eurozone countries has pressured the euro downwards. In 2012 the euro performed poorly reaching a high of 1.3485 early in the year and declining rather steeply thereafter. As things stand it now looks like it is headed towards its June 2010 low of 1.1876 and perhaps even lower.
On the euro weekly chart we can observe that a trading channel has developed in the past year or so. A pattern seems to have emerged and noticeably Zone B's high (1.4246) corresponds roughly to the midway point between zone A's high and low. Similarly, zone C's high (1.3485) occurs roughly between zone B's high (1.4246) and low (1.26 or so).Zone C is of great interest this month of June 2012. Several thing can happen here. If the euro were to remain within the same trading channel and follows the pattern that has evolved in it, then if we were to assume that the mid point between zone C's high of 1.3485 is the resistance area of 1.26-1.2650, then we can indeed expect the euro to drop to the June 2010 low of 1.1876 where it wil…
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DaddyPapi avatar

its gonna take a lot to reach to that 1.1876 area..cause where its at now is the Monthly Support connecting the lows of November, December 2008 and May/June/July 2010 which is also the Support for the Monthly Pennant which has Resistance connecting 1.6027 to 1.5146

NagarajaAdiga avatar

The greece issue is the bears darling in euro now. don't be too very bearish on this pair. US is struggling and US election this year can trigger another bull market in euro.

samme avatar
samme 5 June

good analysis+1

thescalper avatar
thescalper 10 June

Good article with good analysis. We will have to see when professional buying kicks in with longer term prespective. Currently we are seeing new low with recoveries.

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