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19/41
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Welcome and background
1500 words are enough to tell you "that I love you", but to show randomness in the currency market with those words is a though test of restricting your writing, but I will try.
I have spend more than 2 years in research on randomness in financial markets. I was frustrated to have this invisible and disputed partner of randomness running around in disguise, in my price chart. I finally found this partner and it proved to be a friend instead of an enemy, you can use the randomness to your trading advantage, so do not fear it.
Terms
The time period I use for one move is one minute. The currency is EURUSD.
A move is either up or down. 1 denotes up and -1 denotes down. A move = 1 trading minute.
A run is a count of the consecutive times the price moves in only one direction. Runs can thus be up (positive) and down(negative). A "short" must perceive down (negative) in the context of my article and not as a trade.
Yield is defined as the difference between the next price and the present price.
Assumptions to be verified
IF there are traces of Randomness in the market, what might we expect to find, that could verify it's presence ?
a) If I accumulate all p…
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20/40
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The unity of this article is to point out the similarities between large market selloffs in different timeframes in FX markets.I will try to inform you,the reader,common features of these events,a ‘sixth sense’ understanding of them,and to make sure you profit the most out of them.
Do these charts look familiar to you? Do you see any resemblance in them?
People say history doesn’t repeat itself,but it tends to rhyme.That is what happens with moments I like to call price waterfalls.A price waterfall is a continuous selloff of the markets usually as a result of a change in fundamentals,although multiple factors are involved.Price waterfalls are not a feature of only one market i.e they come in different shapes and sizes,but they behave in a similar way.It is a strange thing to say that markets ‘behave’.We need to consider that people are participants of markets and their behaviour reflects market prices.Therefore people’s behaviour in deteriorating conditions hasn’t changed much during the years.After all,large profits can be made during large selloffs.
What do these events have most in common?Lets have a look at them.
PHASE 1: A top
A top is a process,not a bar on the chart and…
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nhamfx16 avatar
nhamfx16 10 July

Good article

MR_KHALEDBADRY avatar

GOOD JOB

Dominos avatar
Dominos 21 July

Good article

NataAzov avatar
NataAzov 12 Aug.

Интересно!

AndreiLuschkov avatar

интересная статья

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2/26
Ranking

На форекс бытует мнение, что при достаточном капитале и использовании принципа мартингейла можно открывать сделку в любую сторону и всегда оставаться в прибыли. Суть торговли заключается в том, что вы открываете сделку в любую сторону и если цена идет против вас, то через некоторое расстояние открываете еще одну сделку в том же направлении, но с большим лотом. И так до тех пор пока не получите прибыль. Поскольку рынок постоянно находится в движении, то на первый взгляд может показаться, что принцип мартингейла является безубыточной стратегией. Так ли это на самом деле и стоит ли рисковать своими средствами попробуем разобраться в данной статье.


«Безубыточная» стратегия на форекс

Именно по этому запросу меня постоянно преследует одна на первый взгляд весьма привлекательная торговая стратегия на основе принципа мартингейла. В основе данной стратегии лежит тот факт, что цена не может долго находиться в узком коридоре, а при возникновении такой ситуации рано или поздно она выйдет из него. Нам остается лишь следовать за ценой, а если с направлением не угадали, то переворачиваемся, но с удвоенным объемом и так до тех пора, пока не выйдем в плюс. Более наглядно это видно на рисунке ниже.
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Yesa avatar
Yesa 28 May

".... считаю что мартингейл не совместим с форексом. " Может быть, нужен другой алгоритм?

Sasha_spicy avatar

Хорошо написанная статья!

mermaid avatar
mermaid 30 May

Хорошая статья.

salamandra avatar

Да, алгоритм действительно необходимо другой. Для стандартного мартина проблема в сильном ( почти безоткатном ) тренде,  для этого проблема флет.  А что если брать не фиксированные 10 пипс, а скажем прорыв дня или недели. Чем выше ТФ тем возможно надежней движение.

fts avatar
fts 22 June

Все равно люблю золотом торговать....

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18/31
Ranking
With the popularity of social media, text sentiment has become a significant factor, even in trading and investing. So much so, that there becomes many ways we can view this sentiment. First off, we can look at the text sentiment contextually. That means looking at the actual texts themselves and internalizing it to come to a decision.
Take a look at this video for an example of streaming texts from Twitter when searching for “EURUSD”:As you can see this example uses a Python application to source texts of the major cross pair EURUSD. By the way, the source code for this application can be found here at Github.
Streaming news and texts becomes vital for a day trader, but what about streamlined texts? Is there a way we can quantify and score text sentiment without looking at every single text? The answer is “Yes”. There is a way to do this, many people turn to fintech companies; such as, Dataminr for news, or estimize for earnings estimates.
If you prefer a sentiment heatmap of all stocks on your watchlist, you can get this type of coverage at Social Martket Analytics. Here’s a heatmap that shows scored sentiment represented by differ…
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Lovely_bee avatar
Lovely_bee 12 Mar.

very good job )

Sebine avatar
Sebine 13 Mar.

Interesting:)

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1/31
Ranking

Наиболее простыми и эффективными уровнями на форекс являются круглые уровни. Причина кроется в психологическом восприятии данных уровней и стремлении людей все округлять. В данной статье рассмотрим стратегию основанную на пробое круглых уровней.


Торговая стратегия

Суть торговой стратегии будет заключаться в том, что после пробоя круглого уровня цена пройдет в том же направлении еще некоторое расстояние. Я полагаю, что связано это будет с некоторыми факторами. Во-первых, если это будет истинный пробой, то цена уйдет далеко за круглый уровень. Во-вторых, если это будет ложный пробой, то цена так же должна пройти некоторое расстояние в направлении пробоя, к тому же многие трейдеры любят выставлять стоп лоссы за круглые уровни, которые могут стать желанной мишенью для крупных игроков. Речь в данном случае идет о небольшом расстоянии порядка 10 пунктов.


Торговать будет пробои круглых уровней валютной парой EUR_USD посредством установки отложенных ордеров на ближайших круглых уровнях по обе стороны от текущей цены. Тейк профит будет равняться 10 пунктам, а стоп лосс – 20 пунктам. Конечно же, не самое оптимальное соотношение тейк профита к стоп лоссу, но цене нужно дать «подышать». Отл

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Dominos avatar
Dominos 23 Mar.

Good article

lovybandesha avatar

Nice job

FomikSer avatar
FomikSer 5 Apr.

Хорошая статья, успехов в торговле!!!

NAG avatar
NAG 9 May

ОТЛИЧНАЯ СТАТЬЯ, УДАЧИ))))

pramuk avatar
pramuk 3 June

Interesting

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23/32
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Since 1988 the U.S. stock market has been supported with so-called circuit breakers that prevent market calamities like the one experienced on Black Monday of October 19, 1987. On this day the Dow Jones Industrial average lost over 20% of its stock market value and has become a hazardous date on the stock trading almanac to this very day.
“BLACK MONDAY” IN 2015
A second “Black Monday” was experienced in recent history on Monday, August 24 in 2015, which resulted in dangerous halt-and-go type trading, also causing very damaging results. The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (ticker symbol: IVV) nose-dived more than 20%, and it’s reported that a great majority of the trading volume was done in ETF investments. The ultimate danger in this most recent market failure was the number of trading halts that had occurred, where trading had paused more than 1,200 times before finally being closed by the market circuit breakers. The problem that had arisen was undeterminable during the open.
CIRCUIT BREAKERS
Given the focus of this article is to highlight the foreign exchange market’s price activity in reaction to such market calamities, let’s first turn to circuit breakers, what are th…
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Sebine avatar
Sebine 4 Mar.

Good job!

hrustiashka avatar

Interesting article!

Lovely_bee avatar

Great article !

pshan avatar
pshan 6 Mar.

Why thank you lovely bee.

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16/32
Ranking
February began in the financial markets very wild. Important assets are showing unprecedented or even historically record moves. We observe the sharp drops of brutally growing cryptocurrencies, strong declines in stock indices, bonds and oil, or a swing US dollar strengthening.
For stock indices, it is not yet possible to talk about the final expected turnover, but the drops in the past 6 days are really significant and fast. Daily candles on the US Dow Jones index of over 500 but more than 1000 points are stunning.
The definitive turnover of equity indices does not confirm the intraday development, where the continuing efforts of important Market Movers are still to reverse or at least significantly correct the intraday downturns.
On the other hand, the market's reaction to news in the last days suggests a possible turn of the mines or their proximity. The data is very recent in the US, the results of the companies also, the revolutionary tax reform actually realized, yet the indices started a significant weakening.
The first and one of the major drops in the decline was the 2.70% surplus for US 10-year bond yields in the first week of February. Instead, the analysts now add t…
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Sebine avatar
Sebine 14 Feb.

Interesting article!

thedoctor avatar
thedoctor 16 Feb.

well done

hrustiashka avatar

Good one

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10/32
Ranking
Last week's market sell-off in U.S. stocks coincided an upshot in interest rates--one of the major anchor points being increased inflation expectations. Although the recent economic forecast from the Atlanta Fed points to economic growth at 5.4%, there's reason to believe that inflation expectations are greater at the rate that we're going.
Whatever the cause of the selloff is, the scenario bodes well for the U.S. Dollar in the near term. This could create a scenario for a relatively stronger dollar as we race back up to the top.
Important to note, the EURUSD has been tumbling down, due most likely to overall market fear. In this scenario the market would eventually get back on course, as the Euro has obstinately stayed on an upward path.
GOVERNMENT SPENDING VS. NET EXPORTS
There are some significant factors to be wary of; such as, re-establishing trade in North America, and relative weakness in the U.S. economy. With the isolationist stance in America, it's hard to know if the U.S. will get back on solid footing to increase net exports, one major component to the GDP equation. Yet, there is increased federal spending. By passing the ever increasing defense spending bill this amoun…
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Lovely_bee avatar

Good luck!

pshan avatar
pshan 7 Feb.

Thank you Lovely!

Sebine avatar
Sebine 13 Feb.

Interesting article:)

pshan avatar
pshan 13 Feb.

Thanks Sebine, I'm glad you had a chance to see the article.  Much appreciated :))

hrustiashka avatar

Good article

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27/32
Ranking
Hints and Ideas about FX Majors

Ideas from last week :

  • USD enjoyed a ride against most currencies as US data helped a lot, ADP and NFP employment data were better, Wages growth at 2.9% VS 2.6% expected and all of this helped expectation of higher interest rate at (FED) March meeting.
  • Euro still hold last month gains VS majors as EU data still helpful, also most of (ECB) speakers agreed that next normalization step should be soon and some hint that QE may end at September meeting and all of this helpful for Euro bulls.
  • Aussie got a hit last week as most AUD data disappointed, Mean CPI Q/Q 0.6% VS 0.7 expected, Building approvals -20% VS -7% expected and all of this put heavy weight on Aussie.
  • Kiwi moved in mixed VS majors as no significant Kiwi data last week but Kiwi mostly affected by drop of Aussie which in most time move in same direction VS majors.
[list][/list]…
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2/30
Ranking
This article highlights how autocorrelation and linearity for end-of-day prices can benefit your trading strategy. We’ll focus on trading and investing in the Euro ETF (symbol: FXE) with a discount trading indicator. Finally, we’ll work our way to backtest the results of the discounting strategy.
The following is a scatterplot depicting the relationship between the previous day’s Net-Asset-Value (NAV) prices for daily median prices for FXE.
Figure 1

You’ll notice there is a good linear relationship, giving a leg up for those who know how to harness the strength in NAV price information for the Euro ETF (FXE).
The following chart corresponds to the same time horizon as the scatterplot, with daily close prices of FXE:
Figure 2
Notice, there isn’t a strong indication of a trend for the entire period since 2006. This is another reason why the sentiment discount trading strategy works so well. Generally, there shouldn’t be any strong trend on the underlying instrument—up or down—for the strategy to work well.
Since we’ve asserted linearity and autocorrelation in daily median prices, a discounting strategy is a reasonable one for us to expect to be profitable. The main goal of thi…
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Sebine avatar
Sebine 25 Jan.

Good job!

pshan avatar
pshan 25 Jan.

Thank you very much Sebine!

thedoctor avatar
thedoctor 27 Jan.

good job

pshan avatar
pshan 30 Jan.

Thank you.

Lovely_bee avatar

Good luck )

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14/30
Ranking
The EURUSD currency pair has reached levels in the past few days where greater correction can be expected. The ECB certainly does not like this strong euro at such a quick time, and there is a danger of some verbal intervention. If it comes from behind the ocean, something more positive towards the dollar, you can imagine a healthy correction calmly in the range of 1,2000-1,2100.
On the other hand, financial markets are in the world to cause the pain of most small traders. The correction or reversal of this pair is expected by almost everybody. On currency sentiment indicators, it can be seen that the vast majority of traders are short on this currency pair.
From the above, it follows that the euro dollar can quite easily follow an example of equity indices. Fundamentals, un-fundamenals, very overbought condition, EURUSD will just grow further and higher.
The near technical resistance now represents the range of 1.2500-1.2600 and this could be achieved without problems within a few weeks. The possible increase in EURUSD is also reflected in the rapid turnaround of this market upward after the intraday corrections of the mines.
The Eurodolar is also carefully monitored and a correct…
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AnddreyDr avatar
AnddreyDr 22 Jan.

Отличный анализ сложившейся на рынке ситуации

Sebine avatar
Sebine 23 Jan.

Good job!

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9/30
Ranking
Hi my Dear Dukascopy friends. Today I am going to show you my new Fibonacci strategy. There are many ways to trade with Fibonacci but, I have new Fibonacci strategy that the best way to gain money on EUR/USD. The Fibonacci was developed by Leonardo Pisano. He developed simple ways that today’s use everyone. But I am going to show you new one. Let’s begin with this Fibonacci Forex strategy. When a market has moved a uptrend we are going to replace 6 or 7 buy stops and when a market has moved a downtrend we are going to replace 6 or 7 sell stops like a picture .
UPTREND

TIME FRAME 4 HOURS
  1. We are going to add 3 Fibonacci retracement levels
  • 11
  • 77
  • 88

1. Then we must catch uptrend position
2. The last we are going to place buy stops
3. Put STOP LOSS 200 PiPS
4. PUT TAKE PROFIT the next Fibonacci retracement levels
DOWNTREND

TIME FRAME 4 HOURS
1. Then we must catch downtrend position
2. The last we are going to place sell stops
3. Put STOP LOSS 200 PiPS
4. PUT TAKE PROFIT the next Fibonacci retracement levels
Please try it in demo account several times. Dear my friends if you have any question about strategy dont hesitate to write my inbox Feel Free
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anvifx avatar
anvifx 26 Jan.

Good job!

Miren avatar
Miren 26 Jan.

Спасибо, можно попробовать

Yuliya_N avatar
Yuliya_N 26 Jan.

good strategy

FE_GMTplus10 avatar

well done!!!

Aviator avatar
Aviator 31 Jan.

very good

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2/34
Ranking
Welcome Traders and Readers,
This will be my first article here on Dukascopy and I hope the information will benefit you in the future.
As we are a community you can feel free to ask me any question, I will do my best to answer them all quickly. This also means that if there are multiple members who would like me to talk about some specific subject in a new article, please let me know.
In this article I will talk about multiple ways that will help you prevent overtrading, entering trades at exactly the wrong time and the use of different chart perspectives.
Overtrading
When I just started trading I found myself entering a lot of trades because I liked the price action and I thought my position would benefit me. Sadly all my losing trades showed me I didn’t had a clue about price action after all, this resulted in many loss trades or profitable trades which I closed way too quickly.
I think most of you who have actively been trading can relate to this.
To stop myself from opening trade after trade without being well informed and having any clue I started paying attention to the following:
[list][/list]…
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Vlad73 avatar
Vlad73 22 Nov.

good job

FXNOAD avatar
FXNOAD 23 Nov.

Well done

kish avatar
kish 23 Nov.

неплохо

JuliannaS avatar
JuliannaS 24 Nov.

Nice to read your articles )

Blaise avatar
Blaise 25 Nov.

Nice one, enjoyed reading it !

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20/28
Ranking
Swap means to swap, exchange. But for Forex investors it is more than just a term. Swap is a very important nuance that many investors mix and even sometimes do not realize. This concept, in fact, is the creator of the positive and negative situation in your account.
More precisely, swap is the nightly shipping costs that are positive or negative to your account because of the difference between the currency pairs you've made. That is, if you have put the high interest rate of two currencies out of the market and decided to keep the low interest rate in your hand, the cost of low interest rates will be reflected in your account at night.
  • Swap operations are entirely based on the lending of the money borrowed from borrowing money.
  • With a simple example of buying a pair of EUR/USD, buying a long position, you get the dollar to the market and you get the low interest rate for the euro. This transaction will return to the investor as a negative exchange rate swap. When you sell the EUR/USD, you have to give the dollar to the market, meaning you've bought the dollar. Because you put down a low-interest currency unit, you'll also earn favorable swap revenue.
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RahmanSL avatar
RahmanSL 5 Oct.

Good educational article

mcquak avatar
mcquak 7 Oct.

Thanks for reminding me Wed swap specials!

BIGBO avatar
BIGBO 12 Oct.

Very good job!

Yonggi7 avatar
Yonggi7 30 Oct.

Well done!

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24/44
Ranking
Доброго времени суток друзья. Сегодняшняя статья будет описывать торговые идеи о трех валютных парах и сырьевом активе Brend. На этой недели выйдет блок информационной статистики которая окажет влияние на валютные пары представленные ниже.
Фундаментальный Анализ
EUR
Индекс делового оптимизма в промышленности (июл)
Индикатор делового климата (июл)
Индекс настроений в экономике (июл)
JPY
Индекс совпадающих индикаторов (июн)
Индекс опережающих индикаторов (июн)
Заседание комитета по кредитно-денежной политике Банка Японии
Иностранные инвестиции в японские акции (июл 17)
Инвестиции в иностранные облигации (июл 17)
AUD
Индекс потребительских цен (кв/кв) (Q2)
Индекс базовой инфляции РБА методом усечённого среднего (г/г) (Q2)
Индекс потребительских цен (г/г) (Q2)
Индекс базовой инфляции РБА методом усечённого среднего (кв/кв) (Q2)
USD
Индекс PMI Markit в производственном секторe (июл)
Cоставной индекс деловой активности Markit (июл)
Индекс деловой активности в секторе услуг Markit (июл)
Продажи новых домов (м/м) (июн)
Продажи новых домов (м/м) (июн)
Комментарий ФРС по кредитно-денежной политике
Решение ФРС США по процентной ставке
Годовые данные по ВВП (Q2)Предварительный
Евро по прежнему…
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RahmanSL avatar
RahmanSL 24 July

Nice work my friend :)

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 29 July

Good article!

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

Very nice article!

Lady_in_Red avatar

Good job. very interesting ideas

JuliannaS avatar
JuliannaS 15 Aug.

то что мне сейчас нужно )

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