Article Library

FX 2017 highlights
  • Euro was the strongest performer last year on dissipating geopolitical risk, strong economic growth and ECB tapering.Pound,
  • Aussie and Loonie also did well.
  • Dollar Index down by 10%. The reason for this big move is that other CBs will likely tighten following FED.
FX year to date
  • Sizeable movement for short span of time.
  • Dollar still is the punching bag.
  • Pound outperformance on Brexit optimism.
  • Aussie, Kiwi outperformed on better global economic prospects and rising commodity prices.
  • Yen is not as bearish as expected.
United Stated Economy

  • Annualized growth topped 3% in Q2 and Q3 but Q4 GDP growth missed the expectation to grow by 2.6%. However growth to return above 3% after tax rate cut effect.
  • Headline Inflation for December 2017 was 2.1% y/y, below the 2017 high of 2.7% hit in February. Core PCE came in at 1.5 % y/y in December.
Read article
Translate to English Show original
Verona888 avatar
Verona888 12 Mar.

Great job!)

Vlad73 avatar
Vlad73 16 Mar.

good luck

habiemile avatar
habiemile 20 Apr.

Interesting article!

pramuk avatar
pramuk 3 June


mydream avatar
mydream 8 June


orto leave comments
FX performance Q3 highlights

  • Dollar slightly down in Q3, dollar/yen flat as Fed maintains rate hike path but other central banks catch up.
  • Euro rally pauses after reaching 2 and ½ years high in September. ECB is proceeding gently with tightening policy. Political risks re-emerge in Europe.
  • Pound has a good Q3 quarter after a surprise hawkish shift by Bank of England. Brexit talks gather some momentum but take its toll on UK economy.
  • Commodity rally (especially metals). Oil also has a positive quarter amid signs that market is finally re-balancing.
FX year to date

  • US dollar off its lows as one more rate hike expected.
  • Euro’s rally has stalled on some political setbacks and ECB’s dovish tapering. Rise in German yields.
  • The pound up versus the dollar, down versus the Euro.
  • Aussie did well despite correction in Oct 2017, Kiwi is flat versus dollar.

United Stated Economy

  • Q3 GDP growth came in at 3.0%.
Read article
Translate to English Show original
mursei avatar
mursei 25 Nov.

مقال رائعه

Annyrio avatar
Annyrio 30 Nov.

very interesting!

khalidamassi avatar

Good luck +1

Yonggi7 avatar
Yonggi7 12 Dec.

This article is well done!
And it is well presented!

thedoctor avatar
thedoctor 15 Dec.

well done

orto leave comments
Good Morning Community;
August was another solid month for the euro, with the common currency racking up substantial gains against its major currency rivals.The euro hit new highs vs. the pound and US dollar, closing out the month around 4 cents stronger against both currencies.A number of positive economic reports for the Eurozone have kept optimism in the region’s outlook elevated, and raised expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will wind down quantitative easing in the near future.The euro has also benefited from US dollar weakness, with geopolitical tensions, environmental disasters and President Trump’s failure to bring in any of his promised tax and spending reforms leaving USD struggling.
But can the euro remain perky in September?At the beginning of the year there were concerns that 2016’s victories for Brexit and Donald Trump heralded the start of a global spread of populism, and anxieties about 2017 elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany grew.While the first two votes passed without incident, the third (and arguably the biggest) is now only weeks away.Polls currently indicate that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) headed by current German Chancel…
Read article
Translate to English Show original
orto leave comments
In this article I will analyze Forex asset performance so far in Year 2017. Major Themes of major economies and currencies - I will discuss and respective currencies performance so far mainly till month of Apr.
Overall Eur and Jpy did well against greenback and UK Pound rebounded after the fall due to last year brexit. Aus dollar was among best performer till April 2017. Yet as I write this article Aus plunged (Commodities meltdown- Iron ore down 7.3 percent) against other currencies.
United Stated Economy
The Fundamentals

  • Q1 annualized rate of growth was 0.7% below expectations of 1.2%. And Final estimate of Q4 GDP growth was 2.1 vs Q3 3.5 %(Anomaly due to spike in soyabean exports to South Africa)
  • Headline Inflation for March 2017 was 2.4% y/y the lowest in 3 months(falling energy prices contributed fall). Core PCE Price Index(excludes volatile Food and Energy) came in at 1.6 % y/y in March, close to Fed 2% objective.
  • And Unemployment rate was 4.4 % in April(Lowest since decade)
Read article
Translate to English Show original
Alisiya avatar
Alisiya 1 June

You're doing good

mermaid avatar
mermaid 2 June

Хорошая и информационная работа.

Aviator avatar
Aviator 10 June

good job

Lowech avatar
Lowech 16 June


anvifx avatar
anvifx 7 July


orto leave comments

Like many, we recognize that political factors may overshadow macroeconomic drivers in shaping the investment climate in the period ahead.
We suspect this will be very much the case in the coming days It is not that the economic data doesn’t matter, but for many investors, the imprecision and quirky nature of the high frequency economic data pale in comparison to the risks emanating from politics and policy.
Before providing a thumbnail sketch of the five events, we think may shape the investment climate in the week ahead, allow us to briefly preview the economic highlights. The US and Japan round out the large countries industrial output reports. Europe accelerated. Japan is will likely confirm the strongest monthly increase since March 2014. US industrial output is expected to have snapped back from a weak November. The soft patch the dragged it lower for three of the past four months through November may have ended.

The US, UK, and Canada report inflation measures.
UK inflation is expected to have stabilized at higher levels, though PPI may continue to trend higher. US headline CPI is expected to continue to converge with the core rate, as is repeatedly done for the past fift…
Read article
Translate to English Show original
edlim avatar
edlim 20 Jan.


good job

Lowech avatar
Lowech 22 Jan.

очень хорошо

Natali_Niyazova avatar

well written! thank u! :)

brilliant avatar
brilliant 25 Jan.

good information

orto leave comments
The euro fell from the high around 7 am Friday at 1.0685 all day to the low of 1.0603 after the US close—and then corrected higher by almost exactly 62% to 1.0657. . On the wider move over the last two days, a 50% retracement of the upmove would take the euro down to 1.0568.
On another analysis and what we are foresees that far faster inflation in the eurozone than the ECB expecting. Prices rise by 2% as early as Q2 and stay there for several quarters. The ECB sees only 1.7% on average in 2017 and that’s a jump from 1.1% in December. But sees the weak euro as feeding imported inflation and it won’t be a one-time thing.
Consumers are buying 9% more imported goods and services than in 2009. We all knows that the Exporters are happy to raise prices on higher demand. And the role of the euro as an invoicing currency has fallen. Here’s the turn of events: "Underestimating the significance of the exchange rate pass through will provide the hawkish members on the governing council with ammunition to force a discussion on tapering, earlier than expected as inflation creeps above staff projections.''
When we get a bit confused about the forecast, we look at the weekly chart. This time it of…
Read article
Translate to English Show original
s_amira avatar
s_amira 17 Jan.

thank you for sharing!

Yuliya_N avatar
Yuliya_N 17 Jan.

Thanks for useful information, my friend

TInna avatar
TInna 18 Jan.

very good!

hrustiashka avatar

Good article!

brilliant avatar
brilliant 25 Jan.

yes it is consolidating

orto leave comments
As the global oil and energy prices plummeted in 2015, so did the inflation and growth rates. This left most central banks in quandary as inflation and growth rate numbers ran far below their targeted levels.
This article looks at the successes and failures of the current expansionary monetary policy regimes in the world with particular emphasis on the economies employing the negative interest rate policy.
What is Negative interest rate policy?

A negative interest rate policy is a monetary policy tool whereby nominal target interest rates are set with a negative value.
Rationale for Negative Interest Rate Policy

During periods of economic downturn and deflationary pressures, central banks often lower rates to stimulate growth and to raise the inflation rate. The main objective of negative rates is that they provide an incentive for private banks to make loans. With the negative interest in place, storing money at the central bank in the form of reserves or holding lots of cash will become unattractive and projects that were not worth funding even in a low-interest-rate environment might now look worthwhile.
In some cases, central banks turn to negative rates to lower…
Read article
Translate to English Show original
juraj avatar
juraj 3 Aug.

Ilolor- it does not matter what the CBs state on their website, important is what they actually DO and how they make their decision.

Fed never even declared its 2% target in the way ECB did, yet we are presuming they want to achieve 2% inflation. Their models are based upon PCE numbers and when you look at the history it becomes clear that FED always acted as if they were targeting core PCE. They were ok with headline inflation of 3%+ yet core PCE was at roughly 2% so they did nothing. Back 3 years ago when headline surpassed 2%,

juraj avatar
juraj 3 Aug.

Fed was in no hurry to lift the accommodation  because core PCE was still well below 2%.

If ECB officials declined to cut rates and step up QE saying core inflation was still positive and much better than headline, then they are de facto targeting core and not headline.

And if BoJ is refusing to step up easing for 2 years because core inflation is faring well, even though headline is back below 0 then they cannot be targeting headline inflation, no matter what their website says.

And lastly there are good reasons why you should overlook supply shocks (food&energy)

juraj avatar
juraj 3 Aug.

I am finished here- the comment system is a piece of... limiting me to under 600 characters which makes it impossible to express my intricate arguments.

Take care, it was a nice talk to you.

Mattie avatar
Mattie 3 Aug.

More often than not, it is for political reasons that the Fed Banks raise or lower rates. 

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 26 Aug.

Very interesting article!

orto leave comments