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Frequentemente nós somos confrontados com resultados de estratégias sejam eles manuais ou automatizadas e temos de avaliar a sua utilização. Apesar do resultado final (seja ele mensal, semestral ou anual) ser muito importante e claro que quanto mais lucro melhor, não é menos importante sabermos qual o risco a que vamos estar expostos com essa mesma estratégia. Este artigo pretende abordar esta temática do risco associado a um investimento.
Regra geral costuma-se distinguir entre risco e incerteza. Como ninguém tem a bola de cristal, a incerteza vai existir sempre quando não se sabe o que vai ocorrer no futuro e este cenário não é diferente do que temos nos investimentos financeiros (e.g. Forex).
O risco é a incerteza que nos diz respeito porque de alguma forma afeta o resultado no médio e longo prazo dos nossos investimentos e é um ingrediente essencial para uma boa gestão de banca.
Assim a incerteza é uma condição necessária, mas não suficiente para o risco. Apesar de toda a situação de risco ser incerta, pode haver incerteza sem risco. O risco será assim a incerteza que pode ser quantificada.
Uma forma de caracterizar o risco de um determinado investimento, é recorrer aos de…
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ijayakumar avatar

It would be great if you add more supporting data!

VictoriaVika avatar

Thank you for article, antoniogreenblue  It is so nice of you to share your great dedication and effort. Also we can see here detailed description of the method, very informative.  Great work, keep going. 

orto leave comments

In this Article I would like to share with you how I won the Dukascopy Social (Mirror) Trading Contest,

because I used a different approach, based on a couple of convictions that I will describe here.

This Article is built-up in the following manner
  1. Introduction
  2. The Equity Challenge
  3. Trade Plan
  4. Money Management

Social, or Mirror Trading has become an important part in the life of traders
because it allows you to learn and to ultimately profit from the knowledge of others.
You can compare your trade set-ups with others, and look for similarities and differences,
this way giving yourself the chance to see whether you have overlooked anything, and the chance to re-think your trades.

The Dukascopy Social Trading Contest provides an excellent learning opportunity to explore this part of trading,

as well as offering cash prizes at the end as a bonus.

No 1 is where you can find the Reports that I Use in this Article
No 2 A Trader must know when to anticipate market moves

The Equity Challenge
The thing that struck me most about the contest, after participating a couple of times and not getting anywhere, really
was the
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AdamFx42 avatar
AdamFx42 6 Nov.

thank you all :-)

Daytrader21 avatar

Adam nice tips you have here, I have to say in the last few month I was a very bad manger when it comes to choose your signal providers for the Social Trading. By the way I never liked the name of the contest "Social Trading" maybe "Money Manager" sound better:)). Keep up the good work

AdamFx42 avatar
AdamFx42 14 Nov.

Will do, thanks for your support Daytrader21 :-)

FxMidaso avatar
FxMidaso 14 Nov.

thanks for the article.

DumbAsArock avatar

Clearly an innovative approach. +1

orto leave comments
Continuing on from the previous article - Forex Volatility - Part 1 We will dive further into looking at volatility, specifically the effects on the FX markets and Equity markets. To start with, looking at other volatility indicators commonly used in FX trading, the most common of which is the Bollinger bands. The intervention of this indicator came after hours of study realizing that volatility wasn't a constant and was in fact dynamic and changed over time. Because of this, the indicator was developed in order to remedy this. To start with the indicator starts with a user defined Moving average overlayed on the chart, on top of this, there is another user defined standard deviation which is considered, one above and one below the moving average.Typically the moving average used is 20 and the standard deviation is 2. Here is what appears on a 1-Hour chart EURUSD chart.There are many common trading strategies, primarily using employing a volatility breakout strategy. I won't go into too much detail on the specifics, but in essence during times when volatility is low, (historically the end of US / Asian sessions) and so the Bollinger bands go horizontal.From here a violent move one …
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Jester avatar
Jester 27 May

Don't bother that nobody liked and commented Your article, friend. 95% of the market crowd are losers because they don't have any idea what really matters on the market :) You are on the right path to be among 5% of winners ;)

scramble avatar
scramble 28 May

yet another excellent article!

valentine avatar

Good 2nd part. More articles like this please!

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 30 May

Cheers for the kind words, I think I've made it pretty clear how this can be useful in trading, not only Fx but everything, it's obviously not a guide to trade but it doesn't take two brain cells on how to use this as, personally, the most important tool in trading FX.

orto leave comments
Although Forex markets are open 24/7 there are certain periods of increased activity. These periods occur within working hours of different equity markets across the globe. And increased activity in Forex market reflects capital flows between all the financial markets of the world. By analyzing these periods separately trader can get additional understanding about sentiment and market direction changes which doesn't occur in charts, displayed using traditional time frames like D1 and H4. The problem with medium-term time frames, like daily (D1) and four hours (H4) is that these are calculated differently according to different time zones. I‘ve seen professional analysts/traders display their analysis with three different time zone settings for H4 time frame: GMT, EST and DST (GMT+1). Because Forex is not centralized, for every trader is up to him self to decide how to set up H4 and D1 chart to align with one of the main sessions: Tokyo, London or New York.So every time when I see a red H4 „spinner“ on the top of the swing – I‘m not in a hurry to place short orders . I‘m always checking other H4 or D1 settings (usually I check EST time zone as my trading platform is aligned with GMT…
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PPandM avatar
PPandM 30 Oct.

Nice article, good luck! +1

Likerty avatar
Likerty 6 Nov.

Daylight saving time was applied last week so now European and North american session hours changed GMT: European from 8:00 till 16:30 and North American: 14:30 till 21:00

Likerty avatar
Likerty 6 Nov.

And GMT H4 time frame candles makes more sense now as these align with European opening and with Tokyo

Likerty avatar
Likerty 14 Dec.

For any additional questions/suggestions please contact me via twitter -

velldes avatar
velldes 13 Sep.

Nice article. Inspired to create new "Trading Sessions or Market Hours" indicator in JStore
or read about it in my blog

orto leave comments
There's so many different strategies,
trade systems everywhere. You can see great reports, that show 100%
win ratio. So the question arises – is it really so easy to trade?
I do not think that it's easy. I think that one has to know how to
identify good reports from bad ones. So in this article I am writing
about what profitable trading means. And how to understand reports.
time period to use
the longer time period in a report we see, the better report it is.
Long time period we need because market changes all the time. Market
conditions change too. Market can be ranging for example for months,
but very fast it can change to a strong trend. It means that range
trading strategies will fail. Break outs trading strategies will fail
at ranging market. Good strategy has to be profitable or break even
all the time. For example if we study ranging market strategy, it has
to be profitable at ranging market conditions and at least at break
even at trending market.Below are my Strategy contest balance and rank charts from Dukascopy web page. I have to mention that my strategy is profitable when market is in ranging state.Above chart shows that equity rises gradually, but ther…
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schnitzel avatar
schnitzel 29 June

Unfortunately in the Dukascopy app it is not possible to back test for a person longer than one year. Or did I miss this?

Miha25 avatar
Miha25 29 June

good luck with this article and keep doing the good job +1

Cesar avatar
Cesar 30 June

Good article!

olchik0012 avatar
olchik0012 19 Oct.


xiaozuwei avatar
xiaozuwei 27 June

this biggest mirage in MT4 is that backtests are mostly based on interpolation data, which is far from real if your strategy is heavily based on tick feed.

orto leave comments
Hello, I just want to show you how to use Dukascopy's wonderful export features to generate rich graphs like the following: 
Hopefully yours will end up looking a little more.. upwards than mine!The first step is to install spreadsheet software. For this article I'll be using OpenOffice's free software though I'm sure you could achieve similar results with a commercial product.Once you have the software installed we need to create a new spreadsheet file. Simply go to My Documents or wherever, right-click and choose New->OpenDocument Spreadsheet. Rename it to whatever you like.The next step is open up your Dukascopy platform and choose to view a 'Portfolio Statement' report: By default it only shows the last 5 days trading but we want our graph to cover all of our history, so change the from date to the start of your account or earlier.Now click Reload and wait until it's finished (this may take a while if you've been trading for a long time).What we're interested in here is the Export button which will create a text file for us. Go ahead and click it. Again this step might take time to complete if you have a lot of data.Choose to open the file with Notepad (or alternatively save th…
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elen avatar
elen 25 Feb.

i like this one

ritesh avatar
ritesh 26 Feb.

both the 1st image and rank chart looks same. curve fitting is a nice technique to make money online selling strategies that worked in past

ritesh avatar
ritesh 26 Feb.

a +1 for the nice article explaining the chart making process.

orto leave comments