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1. When did speculations begin and how?
During the so-called "Peace and War Studies" of World War II between the US government and Wall Street global financiers and some academics headed by Isaiah Bowman, then president of Johns Hopkins University, the most important decision was that the United States would be heir to the British Empire. The adoption of globalization as the choice of the new empire which is the colonialism in a new name and new tools, one of the decisions that one of the requirements of the empire of the age to be the currency of the global reserve currency. Therefore, the dollar was adopted instead of the sterling as the reserve currency. It was recommended that the IMF, the World Bank, the United Nations and the Free Trade Organization, which were not approved by Congress at the time, be replaced by GATT. These institutions were publicized in Bretton Woods in 1944.
In order to make the US dollar the global reserve currency, Bretton Woods also agreed on the fixed-exchange-rate regime, meaning that the national currency was fixed against the dollar at a fixed …
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magicratio12 avatar

interesting, good article

VALTRAD avatar

Хороший экскурс в историю доллара

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

well done!

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 1 Sep.

very interesting

tradelord avatar
tradelord 21 Sep.

well done

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RBA Interest Rate Decision
In the meeting held on 5th September the RBA kept the interest rates unchanged at 1.5 % but gave much more positive indications about growth in economy. As per recent economic data inflation is expected to rise gradually, business investments is picking up, employment growth has become stronger, though labor hours remains week. The various forward-looking indicators point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead. Economic growth is still expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to a little above 3%.
In recent meeting held on 1st August RBA kept interest rates unchanged but gave much more positive indications about growth in economy. Governor Lowe said, business investments have picked up, employment growth has become stronger, though Wage growth remains low, however, and this is likely to continue for a while yet. Inflation is expected to increase gradually as the economy strengthens. The various forward-looking indicators point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead. He said, economic growth is still expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to above 3%.
House Pric…
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RahmanSL avatar
RahmanSL 13 Sep.

wow...pretty concise fundamental analysis for the Aussie Dollar : )

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 15 Sep.

Good article as always!

anvifx avatar
anvifx 23 Sep.

nice article

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

Great article!

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2016 US presidential general election is drawing to a close, and the results are broken moon becomes blurred. Regardless of the outcome, both will be on the US economic, political, social, and even influence the situation can not be ignored in the world. Here I will Trump previous two presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and to lead a simple analysis:
First we look at Donald Trump. The excited into the US Republican presidential candidate if the host, which stimulated into political strategies will undoubtedly become a strong power, but not running out of fuel and navigation of aircraft. Let us put aside their political intentions and the results of speculation, single view of their economic development ideas; the current economic development of inflation increased from 1% to 4% or even 5%, which will be brewing a great crisis. Let's look at their trade policies, China alone to impose a 45% tariff, which is tantamount to the Qing Dynasty 200 years ago, although there is no closed-door policy so extreme, but this is the first world's second largest economy if we really come this far I believe this is for the United States is definitely more harm than good. Effect followed the pat…
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帮我的文章也来个赞呗…………^ ^

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TInna avatar
TInna 9 Nov.


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1. Introduction.
Le présent article propose une étude prospective d'évolution à moyen terme du dollar australien au travers de trois paires de devises : AUD/USD, EUR/AUD et AUD/JPY. Nous passerons en revue, dans un premier temps, l'état de l'économie australienne, ses forces et ses faiblesses et terminerons par une analyse graphique des paires de devises dont mention ci-avant.

2. Aspect économique

L’économie australienne a connu une croissance de 3,5% l'an tout au long de ces vingt dernières années conjuguée à une inflation contrôlée. Le taux de chômage reste encore aujourd'hui très bas, à moins de 6%.
La dette publique reste modéré, à moins de 30 % du produit intérieur brut. A titre comparatif, la dette publique du Japon s'élève à 250% de son PIB, celle des États-Unis a atteint 105% et pour la zone Euro, 86% de son PIB. La croissance économique que l'Australie a connu, s'explique avant tout par la forte demande de la Chine en matières premières. Certes, le secteur des services génère à lui seul 80% du PIB australien contre 10% pour les matières premières mais ce secteur a soutenu toute l'économie par les profits et investissements qu'il a généré dans tous les autres secteurs d…
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very good Article

Milian avatar
Milian 27 May

interesting article!)

williamb avatar
williamb 28 May

detailed and accurate

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Faster 29 May


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PipPoint 3 June


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Previsiones para el mercado SUA para 2016 - Primera parte
Intentare hacer una descripción de lo que podría pasar con el Mercado de Valores estadounidense en el año 2016. Es muy difícil acertar el recorrido de un activo a un mes vista; hacer unas previsiones para un año entero es muy arriesgado, como mínimo resulta muy complejo. Lo que quiero exponer son los catalizadores que podrían influir en el futuro desarrollo del mercado de valores de EEUU.
Bajo mi punto de vista, de cara al año que viene, a nivel mundial nos vamos a enfrentar a un factor muy importante que va a tener como catalizador critico lo que pasa en Estados Unidos. Dependemos muchísimo del dólar y de la renta fija y variable de Estados Unidos, que influyen en todo lo que pasa en el resto del mundo.
1 – Análisis fundamental

EEUU se encuentra en un proceso de subida que dura desde hace mas de 7 años; es uno de los ciclos más largos de subida, y hasta ahora los Bancos Centrales no han encontrado ningún remedio para evitar los cambios dParte 1)e ciclo, pueden alargarlos o retrasarlos pero es inevitable que las economías pasen por fases de expansión y después de decrecimiento.
Los elementos clave para el año …
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tdbatinkov avatar

That is interesting article

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 10 Jan.

Thorough analysis and great explanation, well done!

isbar avatar
isbar 28 Jan.

Interesante. gracias por el aporte

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United Kingdom economy has been struggling ever since the financial crisis was triggered there with the bank run on Northern Rock in 2008. The Bank of England had to adjust to an expansive monetary policy in order to avoid further slowdown of the economy. It has introduced the quantitative easing program in 2009 and since March 2009 the interest rates have been at it’s historic record low of 0.5%. On the 9th of July 2015 the Bank of England has kept interest rates and asset purchasing program unchanged at 0.5% and 375 billion pounds respectively. Analysts predict that the earliest date for a rate hike could be August 2016.
Last week we saw the GBP/EUR drop by 0.98% (biggest weekly drop since June 5th) and the GBP/USD by 0.4% (3rd consecutive weekly drop). But more importantly last week the GBP/USD has broken the upward trend line on which it embarked on at the beginning of April and is currently below it.
Last week 10 year UK bonds prices depreciated (yields rose by 0.08 percentage points to 2.08%) amid less demand for safe haven assets due to the improvement in negotiation talks between Greece and it’s creditors. Lower demand was also due to the fact, that the planne…
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ivanbgd 28 July


al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 28 July

Useful information and very well written. Great article!

Milian avatar
Milian 28 July

good work!))

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piter44 29 July

superb +1

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Margoshka 30 July


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2014, for the most part, has been an interesting albeit quiet year for the FX markets. G10 volatility is the lowest in the post Bretton Woods era. However, while some Global macro firms are struggling, in actual fact, its been a perfect year to trade upon these ideas.
So what is Global macro? - Simply, its looking at the fundamentals of a country or area, and trading based upon the findings. Whether its in the Equity markets, the fixed income world or even in FX. Fundamental analysis is the cornerstone of investing, as has been as long as trading has existed.
Global macro is really considered a strategy, alongside the likes of Equity Long/short, Event drive, Arbitrage, Volatility... So far, this year Macro funds have performed very poorly, averaging -2.83% across the major Hedge funds.
In FX, the key determinant of a currencies value is how central banks act, and their policy. Whether they are hawkish or dovish impacts both the supply and demand for currencies , and simple economics. So far this year, there has been substantial divergences in central bank policy. And if we can correctly predict *where* they are going from here, then trading in FX becomes really simple.
If we consi…
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Daytrader21 avatar

I think Paul Tudor Jones described current trading environment the best: "Manic depressive trading in a volatility-compressed world." He made this comments few months back at Sohn conference. You can't argue with the macro trading king:) when he say:"Macro trading is about as difficult as I’ve ever seen it in my career.” By the way that "inverse gaussian distribution curve" of perception of monetary policy standing looks quite interesting. I've seen one presented by the guys from dailfx, a bit different than yours but of course each with his own view:). Nice article as always.

Elani avatar
Elani 20 Aug.

well as a beginner I need to learn more in order to understand how to invest with a global macro mindset but thanks for the article  it gave me some basic understanding of it.

mimuspolyglottos avatar

Thanks one more time. The divergence on CBs policies means only one - higher volatility. The wider gap - the higher volatility. Rubbing my hands.

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Role of Central Banks in Currency rates II In continuation with the previous article, role of CBs decides the movement and even it changes the trend. In continuation with the previous article, role of CBs decides the movement and even it changes the trend. Infact some CBs are proactive and some CBs some what late in setting the policy. SNB had come forward independently and fixed EUR / CHF floor of 1.2. At that time there was only huge movements in that pair and was threatening and there was a fear of deflation. But once the floor was put in place, the pair was very steady and it helped the swiss economy in a very big way . Same with BOJ. But in real terms they lagged some what due to fluid political scene. Once the strong government was elected and the PM Abe has indicated his desire to defeat the YEN strength, it is weakening day by day. Here no indicators work. No Holy grail here! Thatswhy even all the pull backs till now are shallow and prices are quickly jumping up. It is a trend change. Prices will correct for a overbought level. But only to some extent. If it has to correct technically, EUR/JPY needs to go 117, USD/JPY to 82 to name a few. Today’s sudden jump in al…
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Cactis 7 Feb.


Likerty avatar
Likerty 8 Feb.

You could expand more on the matter..

asad avatar
asad 10 Feb.

Good article. But the best one is if the chart enclosed or attached for supporting the concerned description. Ok, this is good supporting article to my next trading. Thank you friend.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 18 Feb.

Very interesting subject for me, but I would have liked to see more information on this article. The role of CB in Currency Rates is to keep them into certain ranges that would satisfy both commercials and speculators :)

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 21 Feb.

It has to be said that the 1.20 floor was not the first one the SNB tried to put on the EUR/CHF, there were actually a few along the way that simply failed. The same with Japan, that many times intervened to weaken the yen, without any success at all. In my opinion Central Banks are not as powerful as people assume they are, they fail more times than they succeed. Just look at the way George Soros destroyed the pound in 1992... :)

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On the back of a more pessimistic outlook for the Euro zone economy by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Euro is set to lose ground against the US Dollar and the Aussie Dollar in the weeks ahead. Supporting this forecast are the strong bearish technical signals on the larger time frames of these pairs that point to the start of major downtrends, as investors and traders gradually move away from the single currency. With 2012 expected to end with the Euro zone in recession, the ECB decided to keep its benchmark interest rate at 0,75%, citing a lower than expected growth forecast for 2013 and increased downside risks to economic activity and inflation. The Governing Council of the ECB pointed to ¨uncertainties about the resolution of sovereign debt and governance issues in the euro area, geopolitical issues and fiscal policy decisions in the United States, possibly dampening sentiment for longer than currently assumed and delaying further the recovery of private investment, employment and consumption.¨ Indeed, data released earlier in the week supported this assessment, as retail sales for the Euro zone fell sharply in October by 1.2% - the largest cut back in this category of…
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DaddyPapi 10 Dec.

Yeah, thats a tricky one. Given the impact of the US economy on the rest of the world, I think a resolution would be dollar negative. Even though it is going to be directly beneficial to the US, it wont be that USD positive until broader economic data in the US improves.

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 10 Dec.

Nice article, and great analysis, good luck...

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 11 Dec.

So many people keep saying for quite a long time that the euro must go down, and so far it either does not move or actually goes up :) Unemployment, austerity, low growth, all that has been going on for a couple of years now, and everything is already priced in. For the euro to go significantly down we need something new (like Greece being kicked out of euroland, for example), because without fresh bad news (that are not already priced in) I see no reason for the euro to decline significantly. EUR/USD is back above 1.3 even with all the latest data, the market is telling us something... ;)

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 11 Dec.

Depends on your definition of a decline..100 pips, 300 pips, 1000, pips..and over what time period...since mid 2011 to its current price, it is down by 2000 pips..having gone down by as much as 3000 pips in July this year.. so technically speaking over the long term, it is already declining. Short-term, however, it is moving sideways in waves of 200-300 pips, rising and declining. My definition of a decline in this forecast is 300-pips from that 1.3000,.beyond that, who knows.

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 11 Dec.

Yes, but since July it is up 1000 pips, when most people were predicting the euro to collapse due to Spain (eventually reaching parity with the USD), and since then things just got worse in Spain and the euro went significantly up. By decline I mean going below 1.2, because thats what I keep seeing in those doomsday scenarios. 300 pips to me is not a significant decline, but then again I trade long term, so 300 pips is not that much really and anything can cause it. My definition of decline would require something special, and I wont even mention those predictions of 1.05, parity, etc... :)

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