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1、外强中干
  • 拥有150年历史的德意志银行是和德国战后经济奇迹关系最为紧密的德国企业之一,在欧洲央行诞生之前,德银就已经在与德国央行密切合作,支撑了德国经济数十年的稳步增长。
  • 德意志银行总资产1.64万亿欧元,但是其总负债达到了1.58万亿欧元,也就是说只有600亿欧元的净资产;看似巨大,但是只要负债稍有变动,就像外汇保证金交易一样,面临爆仓。
  • 据MarketWatch数据显示德意志银行2015年巨亏68亿欧元,系2008年俩首次出现亏损,其财务报表显示2015年营收335亿欧元,也就是说其在2015年支出大403亿欧元,更令人咋舌的是2015年,在诉讼方面的支出就达52亿欧元,较2014年上涨了151%。
  • 在2014年,金融博客Zero Hedge就在德银的2013年年报中发现,截至2013年年末,该行的衍生品持仓合计超过54万亿欧元,按当时汇价折合逾75万亿美元,是全德国GDP的20多倍,是整个欧元区GDP的5倍多。
2、四面楚歌、十面埋伏
  • 近年来德意志银行的负面消息一个接一个:丑闻、罚款、巨额亏损,数据之快,数额之大,范围之广令人目不暇接。市场上相应出现了德意志银行是雷曼兄弟第二的声音。
  • 2016年6月30日,美联储公布了2016年银行压力测试结果,德意志银行赫然在列,然而是不及格名单。
  • IMF:德意志银行是世界上风险最大的金融机构。这无异于落井下石。
  • 2016年9月16日,美国司法局对德银开出了一张140亿美金的天价罚单,随之其股价应声暴跌,真可谓屋漏偏逢连夜雨。
  • 德银成为了众多空头追逐的对象,据彭博数据显示,单2016年5月31至6月15日,德银股票的空头头寸就增加了3284555股,增幅达18.7%,净空头达5.21%。
  • 全球第三大经济体日本,抛出10万亿以刺激经济增长,带来的是日本民众抢购黄金,金银价格上涨,这对德银来讲简直就是雪上加霜。

3、重蹈覆辙还是绝处求生
  • 如果真的到了不可挽回的地步,1.58万亿欧元的债务,这个数额将是上一次金融危机雷曼兄弟债务的3倍。所引出的直接问题就是银行挤兑
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DaShik avatar
DaShik 10 Nov.

interesting to read but automatic translation stopped at the beginning of 3 point. i'll try to read till the end via google translate)

DaShik avatar
DaShik 10 Nov.

tnx for advice in the last paragraphs. i hope DB will manage to prevent fail

ak10 avatar
ak10 15 Nov.

useful chart analysis

zarina avatar
zarina 23 Nov.

interesting analysis

brilliant avatar
brilliant 24 Nov.

the language alphabet is interesting. great thank you

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21/66
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1.0 Introduction

GBP has depreciated in the 7 months up to February substantially. This was most conspicuous on the GBP/JPY pair which
was down by over 20% and GBP/USD pair which has dropped by over 12% and reached a 7 year low at 1.3835. Afterwards
the GBP has bounced back up to around 161 and 1.44 and is currently trading at around 159 and 1.41 respectively.
The two main factors determining it’s further trend direction for the upcoming months will be the potential Bank of England’s interest rate decision as well as the referendum taking place on June 23rd and being decisive on whether United Kingdom will stay or leave the EU.
1.1 EU Referendum
The Fitch Ratings agency has issued a report stating that Brexit would “drive short-term disruption and long-term risks” and that the “precise impact would be highly uncertain”.The referendum factor is solely political and unpredictable, although BoE Governor Mark Carney has reassured that additional liquidity will be provided to the banking sector before and after the referendum in order to avoid any potential insolvency problems. However, as the campaign unveils we will probably see many turnarounds in polls and predictions and this wil…
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Daytrader21 avatar

Good job!!

WallStreet6 avatar

Thanks!

Goodini avatar
Goodini 1 Apr.

good article

driven avatar
driven 2 Apr.

Interesting article. Well done!

Kivetat avatar
Kivetat 19 Apr.

Very good job)))) Thank u for this informative and interesting article))))

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26/35
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In economic crisis many investors put their portofolio in forex market, stock and commodities.Too many people think that put their investments into commodities such gold are best for future, and also many big banks still holding Gold as their financial backup.During hundred years gold became popular as good investment but since gold ever down more than 5% in one day period (it happened two years ago in 2011 when gold suddenly drop down more than 5% in a day period) then gold is no more safety for long term investment.In 2013 many economic analysis predicted gold will be rise up again, they using economic parameters especially global economic issues as the power to bring up gold again, but I dont agree with them!Why? because I saw that market in 2013 will be more pressure gold down.Gold now became populars as the source for speculation beside currencies and stocks. Gold will be more wild than currencies trading or forex in 2013.In my humble opinion gold still will be down 20-30% from its presents price.Why do we need gold? People no need gold, people need money for life, gold just like other stuff like otomotives and electronics, fashions etc.Some issues said that gold more needed i…
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bmg avatar
bmg 7 Jan.

nice article +1 happy new year 2013 +11

ante777 avatar
ante777 21 Jan.

Good aricle.

kelvindfxguru avatar

Very Informative Article

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40/53
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Inflation Deflation and Quantitative easingWell, honestly I’m not so sure
picking this topic, but just lets go, it would be nice to discuss this topic
with others peoples.
I will start this topic by the definition
of inflation,
So, what is inflation?
Wikipedia says that inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.
This is means that during a period of time,
the price for goods and services go higher than before. For example if you buy
a cup cake about $ 1  in 2002 and than
ten years later that cup cake become $ 2 , that’s means during this ten year
there is inflation for about 100%. (in reality  inflation could be calculate in some formulas,
but the common one  is by using  Consumer Price Index, if you want to know how
to calculate inflation just find it in Google, so let’s get move)
 So, what
cause inflation? What drive price goes higher?
That is a huge question, inflation could be
triggered by so many factors, it could be the money supply, could be increasing
in  demand of goods and services, no
supply of goods and services and some others factor.
I will talk about the demand first, as we
know that if supply for a g…
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marius24 avatar
marius24 22 Mar.

i study a lot about inflation and very interesting your study

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