Hints and Ideas about FX Majors

Ideas from last week :

  • USD enjoyed a ride against most currencies as US data helped a lot, ADP and NFP employment data were better, Wages growth at 2.9% VS 2.6% expected and all of this helped expectation of higher interest rate at (FED) March meeting.
  • Euro still hold last month gains VS majors as EU data still helpful, also most of (ECB) speakers agreed that next normalization step should be soon and some hint that QE may end at September meeting and all of this helpful for Euro bulls.
  • Aussie got a hit last week as most AUD data disappointed, Mean CPI Q/Q 0.6% VS 0.7 expected, Building approvals -20% VS -7% expected and all of this put heavy weight on Aussie.
  • Kiwi moved in mixed VS majors as no significant Kiwi data last week but Kiwi mostly affected by drop of Aussie which in most time move in same direction VS majors.
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Hello Friends
Above images gives history of EUR and its adoption as a common currency of Euro zone.
We all know these days market participants are looking at the meeting of European Central Bank ( ECB) which will be held on 26 October 2017 to get some clue on the prospects of Quatitative Easing Programme ( QE) which is suppose to end at the end of the year 2017. We all are looking what will be effect on EUR if ECB ends QE in December 2017 and what if they don't end it. So friends lets have a look at nitty-gritty of Quantitative Easing Programme of European Central Bank.
It is a bond and asset purchase programme of Central Bank of a region or Country to boost inflation to desired level. In context of Euro region European Central Bank buys Bonds from regional Banks, this increases the price of these bonds and creates money in the system, as money rises in the system it results into cheaper loans and interest rate falls, this helps to business and peoples to borrow more and spend less on their debt, as a result of this consumption and investment rises which in result creates more jobs and supports economic growth.
European Ce…
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FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 2017年10月30日

An excellent article! Well written as well my friend!

Yulia10 avatar
Yulia10 2017年10月30日

nice article

mtakira avatar
mtakira 2017年10月31日


Eco avatar
Eco 2017年11月23日

Всё очень странно. Мы проводим безнальную эмиссию, и типа количество бумажных денег не увеличивается. Снижаем процентную ставку, что способствует большему объёмы выданных кредитов - но как бы денежная масса не увеличивается.))

Anechka2017 avatar
Anechka2017 2017年12月11日

супер статья

Here I will write a nice correlation between two kind of sports - Fishing and Trading (Yes from different point of view trading is not only the process of making money but currently I see it as a different kind of online gaming sport) What Fishing Is - This is the process where you have prepared a few things, bait, tools (cord, fishing tackle net and other).
Similar in trading are the instruments (indicators, charts and others).
The main object in the fishing is the fish. For me the main object in the trading is the volatility. Why? Because like for the fish you have to wait whole day (some times weeks or even moths) just for several seconds to few minutes of huge market movements The problem with the volatility is that is can be very hard to recognize it correctly and like in the fishing you can catch a small fish instead of the big one. In trading you can make two things either take the profit before the huge movement in your direction or it can be false volatility with several rangy movements which must be very carefully avoided.
The problem is who is the fish, you or the market. The market is setting several baits so that you stay away when the real movement comes. If you wan…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar
Natalia_Kisenko 2017年09月22日

Very good article!

RahmanSL avatar
RahmanSL 2017年09月26日

I too have compared trading the forex to fishing which requires tremendous amount of patience and interest....when the market is not moving much, I compared that to small fish nibbling on the bait but then, suddenly, a big fish comes along and strips line off which is similar to sudden market movement which cause the currencies to spike.

Yes, it's very important to keep abreast of geopolitical and economic news (fundamentals) because some sudden events will move markets which can be very different from what the technicals are showing.

Good article and well thought out : )

megajorko avatar
megajorko 2017年09月26日

Thank you very much Rahman. I hope that this knowledge will help us to stop act as fish but be the real fisherman :)

RahmanSL avatar
RahmanSL 2017年09月27日

Like many sports fishing can be addictive and, likewise with trading the forex market, we have to curb our passion : )

annamuzova avatar
annamuzova 2017年09月27日

Very very interesting. Good article

Macron a 39-year old former investment banker won a decisive victory on May 7. He gathered more than 66% of the French vote against far-right’s 33.9%.
He now tackles a battle to gather a parliamentary majority in National Assembly elections on 11 and 18 June.
Macron worked for Hollande from 2012 to 2016, first as a senior adviser and then as economy minister. Opposition from Hollande’s Socialist camp forced Macron to backtrack on his ideas and proposals.
He resigned as economy minister and branded his fledgling political movement, En Marche!
A historical perspective offers similarities among Macron’s election and Napoleon’s arise to power.
During the French Revolution, from 1795 to 1799, the army led by Napoleon Bonaparte was nearly unstoppable. Brilliant victories brought him recognition, wealth and support.
Hearing of instability in the country, Napoleon deserted the battle field and headed back France. When returned, he overthrew the Directory (a committee which governed France from 1795 to 1799) and dissolved the legislature.
He instituted himself as first consul and the leader of a military dictatorship. Napoleon effectively ended the French Revolution.
Macron glimpsed Na…
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FXNOAD avatar
FXNOAD 2017年06月30日

well written

kolyanchik1219 avatar
kolyanchik1219 2017年06月30日

good job!

samir_valiyev avatar
samir_valiyev 2017年07月01日

very important article

AngleRMS avatar
AngleRMS 2017年07月02日

Good job

olya2517 avatar
olya2517 2017年07月02日

very nice

Central Banks are clustering negative interest rates as a new fashionable monetary policy tool. After Sweden, Switzerland and Denmark, the new fellows are the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank.
The ECB has cut a key rate further into negative territory in March 2016. It now charges banks 0,4% to hold their cash overnight. Draghi said that the central bank’s stimulus measures are intended to last until March 2017 or longer if necessary.
The Bank of Japan has also adopted the negative interest rates strategy. It is now charging banks 0,1% for parking additional reserves, with the aim to encourage lending and prompt businesses and savers to invest.
It seems that central banks are all seeking a weaker exchange rate without weighing the risk of an open currency war, losing their ability to boost prices and competitiveness through currency devaluation.
Negative interest rates reduces the cost of borrowing and perhaps should spike demand for loans. Jana Randow and Simon Kennedy [1] noticed:
that when banks absorb the cost themselves, it squeezes the profit margin between their lending and deposit rates,
and might make them even less willing to lend. (...) negative rates haven’t spa
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zarina avatar
zarina 2016年04月16日

good work!!! Thank you

black_box_xx avatar
black_box_xx 2016年04月16日

great! thank you for your article :)

Kivetat avatar
Kivetat 2016年04月19日

Good job))

rajib217 avatar
rajib217 2016年04月23日

Great article

TaniaS avatar
TaniaS 2016年05月05日

Very interesting!

What is Negative Interest Rate Policy?:

A negative interest rate policy is an unconventional monetary policy tool employed by Central Banks where the nominal interest rate is below zero hence the term negative. It is unconventional because instead of the depositors earning money for their deposits in Banks, the depositors are charged for their deposits in the banks. Negative interest rate do not directly impact small investors but can indirectly have effect from the spillover of banks having deposits at other big banks/central banks.
Why Negative Interest Rate Policy?

The policy of negative interest rate is employed when the central bank observes in its economy of the following :
  1. Low or no growth
  2. Deflation
  3. Hoard of money by people and business
Central Bank’s policy aim is to make people and businesses to spend and invest money instead of keeping money at the bank and to stop prices from falling, increase real production and output, and decrease of unemployment. Such loose and expansionary monetary policy is employed usually to deal with such stagnation in the economy.
When a Central Bank has set a negative interest rate, it means depositor will be charged for keeping their mone…
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zarina avatar
zarina 2016年02月27日

You are waiting for the fall of the Euro ?

Nihad avatar
Nihad 2016年02月27日

Good luck buddy

wisdom_consultant avatar
wisdom_consultant 2016年02月28日

nice article

In this article EURUSD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the EURUSD.
What is affected the move of EUR/USD nowadays:
Fundamental analysis:
EURUSD is affected now by two different policies by both European Center Bank (ECB) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by ECB quantitative easing which strongly hit Euro, finally Euro and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
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wisdom_consultant avatar
wisdom_consultant 2016年02月23日

nice article

zarina avatar
zarina 2016年02月27日

I read your article! worked hard !

Nihad avatar
Nihad 2016年02月27日

بالتوفيق اخى الكريم

Interest Rate is among the most important fundamental data that impacts the currency of a country. It's of vital importance for any trader to keep a watch on this important data for his or her trading activities. A change in Interest Rate viz. a hike or a cut could be a percursor to a long term bearish or bullish bias respectively on the currency.
Interest Rate is the also most important tool major Central Banks around the world like FED, ECB, BOJ, PBOC etc use to guide the economy and the overall markets to its desired goals. Interest Rates are set by Central Banks to majorly keep inflation within a limit and to promote or curb lending. For instance, if prices for essential items and inflation are ballooning in conjunction with better economic conditions, Central Banks will hike Interest Rate to curb money supply to control price rise and inflation.
How Rates are calculated? :
Board of Directors of Central Banks controls the monetary policy of its country. They set the short-term interests at which banks can borrow from one another. Central Banks gather various relevant economic indicators from its economy to decide on Interest Rates to keep as its is or to cut o…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar
Natalia_Kisenko 2016年02月17日

good job!

Jenny26 avatar
Jenny26 2016年02月18日

nice article))

zarina avatar
zarina 2016年02月19日

done a good article!

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 2016年02月21日

useful work!


ECB decided to leave rates unchanged in its last meeting in January. Reporting Fergal O'Brien [1],
ECB President Mario Draghi has said the Governing Council will review its stimulus in March amid signs that falling
oil prices will push the euro region’s inflation rate back to zero.

Euro unemployment rate decreased from 10.5% to 10.4% last December, bringing tiny signs of relief for ECB Governing Council. Unemployment rate dropped in Germany to 6.2%, the lowest level since 2013. In the opposite side Finland sees its unemployment rate jumping to 9.5%.
Reporting Chris Williamson [2], Chief Economist at Markit, January’s
Rates of growth continued to diverge markedly, (...) Italy’s growth rate looks to have slipped to just 0.3% and France,
once again the laggard, has returned to stagnation,

while Spain lead the gains with PMI signalling 0.75% growth rate.
Although some Euro zone economies are delivering a sustainable growth, other ones are still providing signs of concerns with steady growth, narrowing stagnation. Facing a mixed economic environment, markets will sharply watch ECB next meeting, holding for super (Mario) stimulus, levelling expectations into a supplementary purchase package.[/2][/1]…
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Nihad avatar
Nihad 2016年02月24日

Super MARIO and what the YELLIN' is all about. Thx for this interesting outlook

fx_lmcap avatar
fx_lmcap 2016年02月24日


Tasha_Mk avatar
Tasha_Mk 2016年02月25日

good luck!!!

Melody avatar
Melody 2016年02月25日

Nice report!

Govagent avatar
Govagent 2016年02月25日

This is useful, thanks. saves me the effort of searching some information, great job ^_^


В прошлом году я принимала участие в конкурсе Мисс Дукаскопи, , но еще хотелось попробовать свои силы во многих других интересных конкурсах, таких как конкурс трейдеров, бинарных опционов, дневных опционов и др.
К сожалению, участие в конкурсе Мисс отбирало у меня примерно по 4-5 часов в день, поэтому старалась искать способы, которые бы позволяли участвовать в других трейдерских соревнованиях с минимальными затратами времени.
Один из моих любимых конкурсов – это конкурс фундаментального анализа. На странице «Активность в конкурсах» результаты на протяжении 11 месяцев участия выглядят следующим образом:
Система, применяемая в конкурсе ФА, в настоящий момент, дает 52,3% (иногда доходило до 60%) правильных ответов. Мои друзья-трейдеры предложили способы адаптации этой системы к конкурсам трейдеров и бинарных опционов.
В этой статье попытаюсь поделиться своим опытом «торговли на новостях» в конкурсе трейдеров.
Что такое «Торговля на новостях»?
Важнейшие экономические и политические новости оказывают огромное воздействие на движения цен на валютном рынке. Поэтому система «торговли на новостях» приобрела широкую популярность как для опытных тр…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar
Natalia_Kisenko 2016年02月29日

MURO  muchos gracias, Jose!

massimoscalas avatar
massimoscalas 2016年02月29日

Thanks to you for the great article!

Nihad avatar
Nihad 2016年02月29日

Natalia_Kisenko Great article Natalia, keep going

Vlad73 avatar
Vlad73 2016年02月29日

очень хорошая работа. удачи!

Knaz_RA avatar
Knaz_RA 2016年07月27日

Вначале писала о фундаментальном конкурсе....думал" вот статья которая научит меня тащить"!!!, эх (((

In this article we’re going to look at both the technical setup as well as the fundamental themes that have been dictating the movements in the FX Market for the month of September and what’s going to drive the market forward in the coming month. The fact that we haven’t been able to see a rally in the equity market and a continuous decline in the US Dollar it tells us that something significant is happening, and that is a shift in the belief of monetary policy and its influences over the markets. We know that the monetary policy is one of the more proactive, impressive and constantly present mover in the market, it’s a theme that has been responsible for much of the moves that we had over the past month and year as well.
  • EUR/USD Fundamental&Technical Analysis

Without a doubt the major event of the month of September was the FED rate decision to hold interest rates near historically low level. However, despite no rate hike the Fed still remains one of the major Central Banks that still has a hawkish stance and the fact that they have stopped easing it’s reason enough to support the US Dollar at least in the short term. In comparison, the ECB is on the other side of the monetary …
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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2015年10月21日

Thank you all for the good words

Decebal avatar
Decebal 2015年10月23日

Supetr article!

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 2015年10月26日

Great article, thanks Daytrader21

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 2015年10月28日

Great, long, useful, interesting!! And this is all words for you) Because you have a good article)!

marius24 avatar
marius24 2015年10月29日

as usual this article is well written and so far you predicted quite precisely Eur/usd

In this article EUR/USD will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the EUR/USD.
What is affected the move of EUR/USD nowadays:
First/ Fundamentally:
EUR/USD is affected now by two different and opposite policies by both European Central bank (ECB) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected by special crisis of each country of the EU which is affected –sometimes- the unity of EU and finally Euro and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
  • Different policies by ECB and FED:

ECB was injecting EU area by quantitative easing (QE) in order to support growth and raise inflation, simply (QE) means that ECB printed more Euros and the natural reaction for this is to weaken Euro against other pairs, in last meeting, ECB still ready to inject more QE is market conditions required.
In different, US FED is ready to raise interest rate for the first time from years, FED delayed its first rate hike more than once in order to prevent broad US$ gains which may dampe…
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Airmike avatar
Airmike 2015年09月23日



One year ago, the EUR looked bullish as ever as many expected EURUSD to reach 1.50's and beyond. It was in July of last year that it had started it's initial descent, which has continued right throughout the past year.
Last year I wrote an article titled A Comprehensive Fundamental & Technical Analysis on EURUSD (Please click the link to read). It outlined some of the reason we could see some downside in the pair.
Euro Outlook
In the previous article, we looked at fundamental factors, such as inflation. In fact, this graph was posted in that exact article.
Figure 1 - Euro Inflation as of July 2014 - hovering at 0.5%

Since then, we have seen the ECB Implement several measure including rate cuts and QE. The main argument for the July 2014 article was that the Eurozone was facing a period of disinflation. Let's see how it is doing today.
Figure 2 - Euro Inflation as of July 2015 - Down 0.3% from July 2014

How is it possible that after all of ECB's efforts, we are sitting at an even lower inflation rate? Well in all fairness, inflation is a global concern at the moment which has been fueled by a sharp drop in oil prices. At the same time, EUR is one of the few currenc…
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Forex_champion avatar
Forex_champion 2015年07月22日

Very good work +1

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 2015年07月28日

Very interesting article giving some ideas for trades and the reasons behind it!

anna_n avatar
anna_n 2015年07月31日

smart man!

The entire financial system is going to be put at test in an no so distant future and since Greece has been on the front stage for such a long time I think it's time to address this issues and give you my own perspective on this matters and what would be the implications of an disruptive event like Grexit.
There are many times that nothing happens for a long period of time until all of a sudden everything happens at once and what is more important the markets are paying attention and we get extreme moves like we saw last week.
For traders who operates in the FX Market it's easy to understand that Greece debt problems was that they converted their debt from drachma to euro and then the currency rose from 80 cent to $1.60 against the US dollar. This effectively doubled their debt in real terms and now servicing that debt is almost impossible without a serious debt haircut.
  • Greece Referendum

Since I'm writing this article over the weekend I have no idea what the outcome of the referendum would be. So, you may be asking yourself what is this Greece Referendum all about, and in simple words is this: Greek people are being asked to vote on whether to accept/ or not current proposal fr…
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Lyubant avatar
Lyubant 2015年07月22日


Agnessa26 avatar
Agnessa26 2015年07月27日

Good Job!

anna_n avatar
anna_n 2015年07月27日

very smart, very!

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 2015年07月27日

This is a never ending story. It may be prolonged by the EU ,,unity sentiment,,  but in my opinion the result will probably  be an exit just one costing a few hundreds billion euros more. Great points made as always.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 2015年07月28日

Great article! Nice approach to the topic! Now we know that with Greece nothing is definite and there may be even more turnarounds eventhough the situation seems resolved.


This article tests the the volatility of the EUR/USD exchange rates related to the European Central Bank setting interest rate decision between 11/2013 and 12/2014 and provide a profitable trading strategy. In contrast to previous articles http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?Kiwi-Trading-Strategy-For-Non&action=read&id=2091#read-article and http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?Us-Gdp-Strategy&action=read&id=2138#read-article about NFP strategy and US GDP announcements which employed an hedging strategies at 20 and 10 Pips profits, this strategy provide a 69.9 Pips TP with a risk/reward ratio RR of 0.286.This strategy also differ from the previous in the magnitude hedging from the slippage and the spread of the news. It is improved the efficiency of the strategy considering that the ratio Efficient Profit/Slippage and Efficient Profit/Spread are different from the previous of around 1/10 order of magnitude. In this empirical analysis it is find the support for the hypothesis that central bank intervention is related to a negative differenence between ex ante and ex post measure of the exchange rate volatility. Instead, central bank…
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foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 2015年01月28日

al_dcdemo  yes the test did not have a great statistical consistence but as you can immagine the interest rate decision that differe from the forecast are not so many ......
It probably could be possible to try with RUB but the slippage and the spread could absorbe the hedging pips.

Ann7293 avatar
Ann7293 2015年01月28日

Useful article!!

Ann7293 avatar
Ann7293 2015年01月28日

Good job!

Vale avatar
Vale 2015年01月29日

thanks a lot for great and usful information!!

Mariia avatar
Mariia 2015年01月29日

You made greate job!Well done!Wish you good luck!!!Going to read!!!