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Hints and Ideas about FX Majors

Ideas from last week :

  • USD enjoyed a ride against most currencies as US data helped a lot, ADP and NFP employment data were better, Wages growth at 2.9% VS 2.6% expected and all of this helped expectation of higher interest rate at (FED) March meeting.
  • Euro still hold last month gains VS majors as EU data still helpful, also most of (ECB) speakers agreed that next normalization step should be soon and some hint that QE may end at September meeting and all of this helpful for Euro bulls.
  • Aussie got a hit last week as most AUD data disappointed, Mean CPI Q/Q 0.6% VS 0.7 expected, Building approvals -20% VS -7% expected and all of this put heavy weight on Aussie.
  • Kiwi moved in mixed VS majors as no significant Kiwi data last week but Kiwi mostly affected by drop of Aussie which in most time move in same direction VS majors.
[list][/list]…
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1/53
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By just knowing how smart money operate in the market you can gain an edge in the financial markets and no matter if you're a profitable trader or not, knowing the concept that I'm about to share with you in this article can give you more insights into the structure of the FX market.
The number one reason why you would want to know how smart money operate in the market is the ability to proper time the market. Timing the market is one of the greatest challenge that any trader can have. The capability to spot market turning points before they happen can yield higher risk-reward ratio. By having the ability to enter a trade as close as possible to the market turning point, you enjoy 3 major benefits:
  1. Low Risk: By entering as close as possible to the market turning price you can use small SL order, which in turns allows higher position size which will yield more profits but at the same time minimizing the losses.
  2. High Reward: Entering as close as possible to the market turning price will give you the possibility to catch the majority of the move.
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WallStreet6 avatar

Very interesting article! and good point with the DXY

marius24 avatar
marius24 26 8月

thank you for giving me a new idea in trading:)). Quite informative this article and yap the timing is everything in this risky environment.

Berkeley avatar
Berkeley 26 8月

good work as ever ;)

Daytrader21 avatar

marius24 Yes you're right if we can figure out how to perfectly time the market we as traders can be far ahead.

Daytrader21 avatar

Berkeley Thanks.

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17/21
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The graph above shows the 2013 annual support and resistance levels for US$ index, namely DXY. According to the analysis of the year 2013, 83.50 was a major resistance level. So, there are no monthly closes above that level.
Currently, we are in 81.50 resistance zone and the continuous envelope has been squeezing since 2012. The squeeze indicates a burst. What is the direction of the burst, is the million dolar question. By this writing, I will try to find an answer for the question.
The graphic below presents annual support and resistance levels for US$ indice. As it is clear from the graphic, prices are a little bit higher than resistance level at 81.00. Target resistance in order is 83.50 level. As of August 13, DXY is 81.61. The price difference between resistance levels is paving the way for a 400 pips drop for EUR/USD.
Meanwhile the squeezing envelope signals that US$ indice will rise up to 89.50 level and EURUSD will drop by 1600 pips.
Since we are in 3rd Quarter and enough data has been collected for the annual bar. Assuming that current data is correct and annual bar will be completed as of today. Then, we can forecast price levels for the 2015 annual bar of DXY.
82.…
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Likerty avatar
Likerty 20 8月

Black colored charts are more healthy to stare at every day, but in the article these looks a bit ugly I gotta say..:))) But nice tech analysis anyway!:)

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