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In this article I wont waste any time and proceed right to the point of discussion.
Credit and debt delinquencies
Consumer Debt Service payments as a percentage of disposable household income have had a steady increase since 01.10.2012.
This means that increasingly larger portion of disposable household income is being spent on debt service such as credit card monthly interest payments.
*Blue Line - Consumer debt service percentage of total disposable income, quarterly, seasonally adjusted.
*Gray line - 10Quarter moving maximum
*Yellow line - 10 Quarter moving minimum
*Orange line - 10 quarter moving average
Together with this we can observe a spike in Consumer Credit Card interest rates (Since February 2014)
*Blue line - Consumer Credit Card Interest Rates
*Orange line - 10 quarter moving average
As a next thing I would like to point out is that delinquincy rates of Consumer Credit have changed to a positive up-trend which currently is above 10 quarter moving average
*Dashed blue line - 10 quarter moving average
*Blue line - Consumer Credit delinquincy rates
*Green line - 10 quarter standard deviation
*Gray line (above blue line) - delinquincy rate 10 quarter moving maximum
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FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 25 Mar.

Good article!

ForexAlyoum avatar

Good Luck

Beto avatar
Beto 28 Mar.

interesting information.

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____________________________________________________________________________________Introduction: We are going to look at a variety of asset classes encompassed within the fixed income and credit world, such as money markets and spreads. Interest rates and yields are historically low at the moment and many are calling for another credit bubble, with a chance of there being a bond bubble leading to a so called "great rotation" into stocks and other risk assets.However I will start by looking at the trends and likely outcome of STIRs and Money markets. ____________________________________________________________________________________STIRs and Money markets:Short Term interest rates (STIRs) and Money markets cover areas like LIBOR, EURIBOR and central bank base rates. First of here is a chart of the 3m USD LIBOR rate dating back to the 80's.3m USD LIBOR, Thomson ReutersAs is straight away evident, the inter bank rate is at a record low, and not only low, it has virtually not moved since the end of 2009. That being said, this is good for banks as it allows ease of access to liquidity to help sure up the banks if problems are to arise in the short term. Furthermore the LIBOR rate is v…
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scramble avatar
scramble 27 Mar.

@adrian: ah ok! so the box showing "MAR3 - JUN3" etc, means "MARCH 2013 - JUNE 2013"! Doh! Many thanks :)

Efegen avatar
Efegen 28 Mar.

Nice work+1

ducklobo avatar
ducklobo 29 Mar.

Great and interesting material to digest +1

Delossan avatar
Delossan 31 Mar.

well done. +

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 31 Mar.

good webinar presentation and I am looking forward for more useful info from you

orto leave comments
I want to talk about an situation that majority of traders deal with,and that is the possible lines of credit and also margin use.I think one of the most important things to have among technical skills in trading that means a good strategy involving the margin use and also strategic points of buying and selling, is having a certain level of funds to trade .Why having funds is so important to be a successful trader in currency markets ?Because they provide the space need to your pairs to breed for example if you use 5% to 10% of your required margin and you have a account with like 100 000 Usd and you are a stable trader with a secure plan of trading that means never over-leverage your trades, and you have an realistic expectation of 5% to 20% of monthly profits, you will be making 10.000 to 20,000 per month and that is much comfortable in the markets because you make money that is enough for you to have a comfortable life and less stressed about possible profits .In my opinion currency trading can be much less risky than stocks and other type of assets, if you have a correct plan and that is because in general currencies don`t move more than 300 pips a day and the rebound way up or…
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captain avatar
captain 17 Jan.

You are right. Having a healthy amount of capital is important. Many institutional traders do not think in terms of risk per trade like us retail traders. They have lines of credit.

charmtrader avatar

Is most important ... Great that someone wrote about this... A+

CIAO avatar
CIAO 21 Jan.

money management is the key, including position sizing

ante777 avatar
ante777 21 Jan.

Good advice, thank you.

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 24 Jan.

While I do agree with the article in general, there's one thing I don't agree with, when you say "realistic expectation of 5% to 20% monthly profits". Using the 20% figure, if the trader compounds it every month, after 12 months he would have a 792% increase in his capital. The only way someone will achieve those extreme returns is by using a lot of leverage, and consequentely having really big drawdowns. 5% may be realistic, more than that over a long period of time is only achievable my only a handful of traders. It's not realistic to expect to make 800% per year in the long run :)

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Fore Rollover:Forex Rollover:Rollover is interest that is either debited or credited at 5pm EST to a traders account. The amount depends on the yield from the Central bank. As it stands the Central bank Base rates are:-Reserve Bank Of Australia  - 4.5%reserve bank Of New Zealand - 2.5%European Central bank - 1.25%Bank Of Canada - 1.0%Bank Of England - 0.5%Federal Reserve - 0.25%Bank Of Japan - 0.1%Swiss national Bank - 0.0%The Rollover that is credited or debited is worked out by the spread of the two currencies that you trade with. For example Is you were to LONG AUD/USD you would get +4.5% from Longing AUD but you would -0.25% from shorting USD, therefore you gain +4.25% from Longing AUD/USD.To put this in perspective If you were to LONG AUD/USD at 1.0000 with 100,000 units (1 standard Lot) You would receive 4.25% interest Per annum or $4250, therefore you would be credited $11.64 every day at 5pm just for having the position open.Next you would most likely traded with leverage. Lets say 25:1 meaning you put down $4,000 margin to trade with $100,000. Now that $4,250 is over 100% profit per annum just for having a position open. If AUD/USD stayed at 1.0000 for the whole year you w…
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AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 20 Dec.

Thanks everyone for your comments. Looking forward to next month now. Article contest is getting a lot more competetive and I like it.

FX_Swingtrader avatar

Sky trader is very knowledgable ad right very well done and great.

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 23 Dec.

Merry Christmas, with a lot of GREEN PIPS...

masterfxtrader avatar

merry christmas to all those on dukascopy and anyelse reading +1

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 31 Dec.

Happy new year everyone, have a good and prosperous 2012.

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