This week is slated to be a down week for Gold and the Euro, according to the sentiment discounting indicator. Both $FXE and $GLD are trading at a premium, and there's enough reason to believe that these two financial instruments have had enough of a rallying cry for the past couple weeks. Expect some steam to come off both for the week ending January 19.
In one of the previous articles, there was a correlation matrix showing how much of a correlation Gold has with the Japanese Yen, soon after the posting, there was a big move for the Japanese Yen against the US Dollar. There's two thing that are remarkable about this correlation. First, the U.S. Dollar has seen a surprising amount of weakness, due in large part to the QE in reverse. This rollback in quantitative easing effectively makes the U.S. Dollar weak by increasing the reserves, inching up interest rates, while lowering the quantity supplied of currency. I suppose this trickling down in the value of the USD will continue until interest rates are raised.
Secondly, with regard to the relationships of the Japanese Yen, the U.S. Dollar, and gold, there's a great amount of interest for the Pacific Rim in general to acquire gold, …
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pshan avatar
pshan 17 Янв.

Thank you Sebine!

Siarhei89 avatar
Siarhei89 17 Янв.

Хорошая статья.

pshan avatar
pshan 17 Янв.

Thanks Siarhei!

Yonggi7 avatar
Yonggi7 24 Янв.

This article is well inspired ! And well done!!! Congratulations! May Jesus Christ blessed you!

pshan avatar
pshan 25 Янв.

Thank you Yonggi, I'm glad!

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I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro, the Yen, the Cable, the Swissie, the Loonie and the Aussie.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Kiwi (NZD/USD) charts that are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be of some use for a quick overview of price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more clearly visible. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
The Peg
A keen observer would have noted something very unusual about price action in the first couple of years. Volatility jumps from near zero level in one quarter to the level of ten or twenty cents in the next quarter and vice versa, several times. That's something that just doesn't happen in …
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Nadin5794 avatar
Nadin5794 13 Дек.

я торгую эти пары и полностью с вами согласна

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 Дек.

Interesting, thanks for the recommendation

lelipuzik avatar
lelipuzik 31 Дек.

good job!)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 5 Янв.

WallStreet6 All disclaimers apply :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 5 Янв.

Thanks to all for your great comments!

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Currency fluctuations in the currency market is essentially caused by the appreciation or depreciation of currencies; at every point in time one currency in the market is either gaining in value (appreciating) or losing in value (depreciation).
The global economic scene is very diverse, with different economic activities and data being processed daily. Economies with strong growth and development tend to have appreciating currencies, while economies not perceived to be doing well tend to have depreciating currencies.
So a currency’s appreciating is directly tied to the state of its economy. When the USD (United States Dollar) is appreciating, what happens to the EURUSD?
The best way to visualize this is to use a scale. If the USD is appreciating over the EUR, it means the USD has more weight or demand than the EUR. So the market will go in the direction of the “heavier” currency.
However, some economies may choose to devalue their currency in order to spur economy growth.
An example is the Japanese yen (JPY), which the Bank of Japan regularly devalues through acts of intervention in the currency markets. By keeping the Japanese yen low, the currency is cheaper and attractive to f…
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SalviLeana avatar
SalviLeana 7 Сент.

Well done

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 17 Сент.


Airmike avatar
Airmike 21 Сент.

nice article

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During my research, in preparation for an upcoming webminar, I recently stumbled upon a very interesting fact about the CADJPY currency pair. This article is aimed at shedding more light on the pair in question, and also to help spot trading opportunities during periods when commodity prices are trending.
Before I begin, it is necessary to get some basic understanding about the economic forces surrounding the two countries in question: Canada and Japan.
Canada is easily one of the wealthiest nations in the world. In the year 2014, the country had a Gross domestic product (GDP) of $1.992 trillion, and this figure has gone up with its 2015 estimated GDP.
By its GDP, it is among the top 20 largest economies in the world.
Source: www.wikipedia.org
The country has a large manufacturing sector, with its primary focus on the Automobile and Aircraft industry. Some of the country’s export goods include air-crafts, motor vehicles and parts, wood, pulp, industrial machinery and petroleum.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), as at April 2010; Canada was the sixth largest producer of oil in the world.
With ov…
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Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 25 Май

Good thought!! Thank you for useful information as always!!!

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 25 Май

Good luck!!

P3tr4 avatar
P3tr4 10 Июнь

good comparism

P3tr4 avatar
P3tr4 10 Июнь

Good luck in the contests

P3tr4 avatar
P3tr4 19 Июнь

good luck again..:)

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1. Overview
As I described in my previous article Analysis of Strategy Based on Correlation (part 1) my idea is to detect situations in market when major pairs usually moves in some certain intervals and to run strategy which catches movements inside mentioned intervals in three different pairs - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP. As at year start where were quite big movements related with faded expectations for sooner than later GBP rate hike, SNB floor removal and ECB QE announcement I think presently pairs might find new fluctuation ranges not going so sharply to one direction as was at the year start. That's why I decided that presently is good time for further analysis of pairs correlation strategy and testing it in demo jforex environment. In this publication further development of strategies for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP pairs will be described (strategy for EUR/USD was described in previous publication) as well as real launch of all three pairs strategies in demo environment.
2. Strategy for EUR/GBP
Not going to deeply to visual jforex programming issues I will explain main principles of strategy prepared for working in EUR/GBP pair. Strategy layout is presented below:
Here is presen…
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rokasltu avatar
rokasltu 5 Февр.

follow up 2. Strategies closed a lot of positions after pairs fluctuations and presently platform balance is 2110. Thus increase is 122 from initial (1988) balance.

missanzhelika avatar
missanzhelika 5 Февр.

Very informative article! Took time to read, but well worth it

rokasltu avatar
rokasltu 6 Февр.

follow up 3. Its two weeks from strategies start. Presently platform balance is 2321 thus increase is 333 or 16.75%. Good result so far.

rokasltu avatar
rokasltu 17 Февр.

follow up 4. As pairs remain in their trading ranges platform balance is increasing further. Presently it is 2468 thus gain is 480 or near 25%. It will be interesting to observe how balance will develop after tomorrows FOMC minutes.

rokasltu avatar
rokasltu 23 Февр.

follow up 5. Present platform balance 2695. That around 700 or 35 % increase during 1 month of strategies running. Actually for some reasons EUR/GBP strategy stopped but it didn't influenced outcome and I just rerun strategy.

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1. Overview
As major pairs usually moves in some intervals I just got an idea to try to develop trading method which is dedicated to exploit certain pairs movements inside some intervals. I will analyse EUR/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP pairs movements and possible scenarios for opening and closing positions. For testing purposes visual jforex platform will be used. Analysis will be done in several publications including results from live strategies loading in demo account.
2. Basic principles of the strategy

Main principle of strategy is to trade within some predefined interval in several currency pairs. In described approach EUR/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP pairs will be used.
If we analyze EUR/USD pair movement during this year we can see that pair had movements in quite narrow interval for bigger part of the year before it dropped sharply below 1.30.
This rate developments we can see in the chart below.
As can be seen from the chart EUR/USD fluctuated in around 1300 pips range for 2 years starting from September 2012 till September 2014. During the same interval GBP/USD and EUR/GBP also fluctuate in relatively narrow ranges and usually when EUR/USD goes down GBP/USD also goes down an…
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ilonalt avatar
ilonalt 25 Нояб.

Almost always movements in FX are going exactly as you write, but sometimes unexpected things happenned.

VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 25 Нояб.

An brilliant article, many useful tools were introduced here, thanks for share it with us. And best of luck :)

Likerty avatar
Likerty 28 Нояб.

I've analised parallels in between some majors and their crosses in the past and God is a tricky thing to trade on!:) Prolematic part is that half of the time this correlations doesnt work in an anticipated way.. WHen you look on historical range (large TF's) it surely looks promising, but on intraday basis - this correlatiosn often happens in steps - one moves, than another, than another or that another doesnt move:)) But I find it helpful to search for respective dicision areas on everyone separately and when all of them (both majors and a crosspair) hits these decesion/rejection areas...

Likerty avatar
Likerty 28 Нояб.

..these rejection areas simultaneously - than soem nice trades can be developed from there..

fxigor avatar
fxigor 18 Дек.

Nice idea for Jforex.It is good way to create EA which will pick the best currency pair for trading from USD correlated forex pairs.

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Introduction :
My first thoughts on Forex were that it is driven by hydraulics - pressure. I am a technical trader and have maintained this standing and built my practice around it. I am sure there are many theories on price movement, however, I shall share my personal view.
Content :
The best way to describe my opinion on price movement is through the analogy of a labyrinth of walls and mazes. To me, the price is not random but rather like a Bouncing Ball arcade game. Each wall offers a degree of pressure and drives the price in a direction. Some walls will offer a lot of pressure, some walls just a little. If the price is coming off a strongly pressurized wall, it might fly through a lesser wall. But mostly there will at least be a pause at a wall, no matter it's strength, although not always and often, if it has already bounced, it might pass through a second time without argument. As the price moves in a direction, it will bounce off many walls, back and forth, until it comes to rest against a support or resistance that is too strong. At that point, it will reverse and begin the process again.
The truly exhausting thing about Forex is that there are so many walls, from the 1 M…
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Polinka avatar
Polinka 30 Июль

Good luck!))

Stix avatar
Stix 31 Июль

Thanks Polinka ,ANABEVZ , VikaChechenkova ...

Stix avatar
Stix 31 Июль

Also thanks to Olga18375 , Ange_Farouche , Elani ...

Stix avatar
Stix 31 Июль

Noyarsh, Neu_spir8 !, leon09 and to FXDream, lupyyyy, Likerty and llolor. Much appreciated !

Stix avatar
Stix 31 Июль

Many more thanks to INFINITEisTHElimit for the Genius Inspiration... ! :)

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In the market map, Forex is an archipelago.
At a quick glance we can see that the islands are related by proximity. This is evident, for example, for the pairs that share a base currency: EURUSD, EURGBP... As a result, movement in one of the islands affect the movement of the adjacent: the move of EURSD affect to EURGBP, EURJPY...
This relationship is mathematically explicit by a simple equation:
Where x is something that explains the relationship between EURUSD and EURGBP; in this case x = GBPUSD
That is, the price of a pair can be deduced through the product of the proximate pairs. This algebraic equality can be expressed geometrically:

This equality is a constant that is deducted from the first axiom of the market: the no-arbitrage. Or, likewise: it’s impossible to obtain profitability without risk.
The above equality is what is known as a triangular position, but we can create all sorts of positions; for example, a square position:
These algebraic equalities are much easier to see if we replace the name of the currency with a number:
EUR = 1
USD = 2
GBP = 3
JPY = 4
As a result of this replacement, the abo…
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Andrew_Ryan avatar
Andrew_Ryan 21 Апр.

The problem to perform the strategy is, principally, how tuning properly the time to avoid excesive drawdown and swap. Think that they are long-term operations. Operation costs make the difference between an extremely profitable strategy with a good risk-benefit ratio and an extremely unprofitable strategy with a terrible risk-benefit ratio. Morover, it's necesary to have a good computing power to avoid slippage. Think that all the information of the tradestation must pass through R or Matlab where is processed and, few minutes later, return to the tradestation to launch the operation.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 23 Апр.

Nice job!

Elani avatar
Elani 29 Апр.

Liked it!

Omela avatar
Omela 8 Май

Отличная статья!)

Omela avatar
Omela 8 Май

Хорошая статья!

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will see proof that using only one strategy with positive expectancy can make
your rich but can also make you poor. Trading results depend upon the
statistical distribution of trades which nobody can control.
you CAN control are many other factors, amongst them is your investment portfolio
structure, or better, the various strategy-market combinations. Doing this
right increases the chance of your trading being a profitable activity. See how
it is done.
Note of caution. This article is for
a serious trader who is prepared to put to use parts of his brain that process
mathematics and related sciences. Traders need to use mathematics and statistics for
proper analysis in order to develop proper trading approaches. Please note also that numbers are shown using the European format ie. a comma is used as a decimal separator and a full stop as a thousands separator.
What is the standard advice you hear/read about money management (MM)?
The standard
advice one gets when s/he starts trading is to trade (very) small. “Risk 1% or
less per trade. Maybe 2%. Maximum 3% not too often!”
Such advice
is normally not supported by any serious background information. Why not risk
0,1% or 10% …
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positive avatar
positive 23 Май

I always prefer an R:R of atleast 1:1.5 ..Lot of traders fail to manage this aspect and loseout. Ascertaining target is a combo of skill and patience. Very well presented.

NagarajaAdiga avatar
NagarajaAdiga 24 Май

right! most of the traders can't control emotions and people have taken trading as gambling which is why all these RR ratio exist. In my experience trading with lower leverage and averaging the trades can give a fantastic return in long run. nice article

belman avatar
belman 24 Май

Great !

Furian avatar
Furian 26 Май

very usefull. keep good work +1

adask avatar
adask 31 Май

Good article.

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As a man and a human
being I accept that I have flaws. Those can be seen in my trading as
in other parts of life.
I have a tendency
to be impatient. Instead of waiting for a particular pattern to form
completely I sometime take it before it finishes forming. I sometime
t a good entry but I also get reversed on more time that I care to
admit. The question really is how do you correct your mistakes. Well
I happen to have the answer and I think its time I myself followed my
own advice. Knowledge is useless if you have it but don't incorporate
it in your life.
SO here is my answer.
Write down the flaw and come up with at-least one way to correct it.
In other words its time common sense became COMMON.
From now on if its
not complete am not in it PERIOD. So easy a caveman can do it.
Always have a reason to
take a trade. A stop and a Take profit. Always have a confirmation
signal and watch out for the fundamentals
and the overall direction
on the underline market. Watch out for the S&P it has a lot of
pull not only i…
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positive avatar
positive 20 Май

I always believe that " accepting and adapting " is the first step towards successful trading.Now you have passed first step. I am confident you will pass through second step as well.

Furian avatar
Furian 28 Май

keep it simple is key for succes +1

kkforex avatar
kkforex 28 Май

NIce article 1+

fora111 avatar
fora111 29 Май

good article+

batlax avatar
batlax 29 Май

nice +1

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