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16/34
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Hello Friends,
I am doing extensive research and practice before I will open a trade position in my live account and in the process I have come to know some interesting facts about Forex trader's traits and how one can get successful by sheer appliance of some common principles which are applicable to every Forex trader.
GOOD TRADER TAKES RISK, BETTER TRADER MANAGES RISK, BEST TRADER AVOIDS RISK

So friends, my first preference is to avoid big risk as I want to be a best trader.
We all know every traders should follow following Golden rules.
1. One should, be Goal-oriented.
2. One should know Thyself.
3. One should follow habit of Extensive Reading.
4. Cut Losses and Let the profit Run.
5. Risk Management.
6. Be Adaptive.

I think everybody have come across above rules at some moment but less people follow these rules so success ratio in Forex Market is just around 5-8 percent. Here new thing I am going to share is entry point in trade and it is for those who have decided no matter whatever happens I will be successful in my Forex Trading Career. Before that I want to say if we take Forex Trading as profession and take self training in terms of practice in Demo account I believe, an…
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wmndave avatar
wmndave 24 Nov.

goodluck

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 26 Nov.

Very good work!

black_box_xx avatar

excellent article!

khalidamassi avatar

Good one, Good luck

miss_natalia_77 avatar

Good

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26/43
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I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make few attempts of my own. Last week I analysed long term charts of the Euro. Here's the link in case you missed it: https://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?A-Long-Term-Technical-Look&action=read&id=2626.
Today, I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Yen charts. Both are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. Since platform's historical data for this pair is currently available from 1986 only, I had to fill in the missing data manually. I've drawn the candles using "Short Line" chart objects.
Yearly chart:
Quarterly chart:
Following the end of the Bretton Woods System (1971), during which the value of yen was fixed at 360 per dollar, the pair embarked on a long term downtrend which lasted until 1995 (although one might argue that it still lasts). After that, the pair entered a wedge-like sideways consolidation but it did broke below 1995 low in the 2011-2012 period. The low was set near 75 and the pair turned back up from ther…
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Airmike avatar
Airmike 12 Oct.

nice

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

To clarify the second paragraph of the article: there is no historical data missing and Dukascopy is one of few brokers that I came across that provides the data going that far in the past and that's more than enough in most cases. But I think it would be awesome to have (daily) historical data from 1971 on all the majors and the respective crosses.

Vitalinka_Pavlenko avatar

Interesting post! Well done! Good luck!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

Thanks to all for your great comments!

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4/30
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Over the last 2 years the market has been changing a lot and we saw across the board many currency pairs has started moving away from those nasty big range zone and have been shifted towards more clear trendsTrend trading can be as difficult as range trading if you don't understand the characteristic of this new type of environment, and you need new adequate rules to be able to profit in the market. In this regard my article is going to provide you with some core basics and unique rules that have been helping me to trend trading with a unique strategy
A healty trading market is when we move step by step: Consolidation - Breakout type of move. As a general rule if a market is moving in a consolidation or a range trading box or a base, followed by a breakout and than repeat the process, than the market is doing what it should be doing (see Figure 1). One of the best hedge fund managers PT Jones has explained this process quite simple, and I'm quoting him here:
The basic premise of the system is that market move sharply, when they move. If there is a sudden range expansion in a market that has been trading narrowly, human nature is to try to fade that price move. When you get a r…
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Daytrader21 avatar

Thank you all for your support, much appreciated

cocciolla avatar
cocciolla 24 Jan.

Excellent article,good luck

foreignexchange avatar

Great great article, many traders probably utilyze this set of informations  without formulate a strategy.
It could be probably matter of study to evaluate the Standard Deviation considering the different scale.
...... Also if you probably think that there is invariance of scale  : )
Good job 

aslamhammad avatar

Nice work :)

Likerty avatar
Likerty 30 Jan.

wonderful article!

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14/51
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After a brief bullish breakout above the large Pennant of the Daily Chart, the EURO AUD pair appears to be heading back inside the Pennant to break bearish to start a new downtrend. This reversal, known as a False Breakout, is likely to lead to the short-term target of 1,2568 being hit at the Support of the Pennant, coinciding with the major Uptrend Line that defined the uptrend since the end of July 2012. Beyond this, a break of this Support is likely to lead to a move down to 1.2200 between March and April this year. To take advantage of this move, you can look out for certain candlestick patterns and signals on the 30 Minute Chart that I will show here, which will indicate the continuation of this downtrend towards the short-term target this week.FALSE BREAKOUTSFalse breakouts are strong signals that indicate the start of a reversal back inside of a broken consolidation pattern. After an initial break of the Resistance or Support, the currency can begin to U-turn to reverse this initial movement and start an opposing trend back inside of the consolidation. This can either lead to a resumption of the price movement between Support and Resistance or a breakout at the other end of …
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SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 26 Feb.

Seems like a strategy with a good risk/reward ratio, just looking at some charts :)

scramble avatar
scramble 27 Feb.

i like the approach and also the whole study it self. i'm also looking at this pair. actually not trading it, i'm waiting the AUD to show some more shakes. Well done, nice article :)

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 28 Feb.

Eur/Aud seems to be in a powerful downtrend which is not sustained by the fundamentals as the AUD is considered 8-15% too much overvalued by the RBA and we seem to get all these negative and dowish comments from the RBA members

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14/35
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As the global equity markets continued to rally in response to the new round of stimulus measures outlined by the US Federal Reserve, the Kiwi also registered sharp gains relative to the US Dollar over the last several days. In reaching its current exchange rate, it broke the major Resistance boundary of the Monthly and Weekly Pennant to signal the possible start of sharp and fast gains over the next few months. Nevertheless, this bullish signal could be the setup for a false breakout that leads to a sharp bearish reversal insidethe Pennant, if safe-haven flows take over the markets once more. This analysis will therefore look at these two scenarios in detail, using Fibonacci Retracement and Extension levels as well as Support and Resistance to predict possible turning points and price targets in both directions. CURRENT SCENARIO The Kiwi Dollar has been moving within the large Descending Pennant that began to be formed at the start of August in 2011 (see Monthly Chart). This has taken place at the peak of the strong uptrend that has held since the recovery of the financial markets in March 2009, following the flight to safety actions in favour of the US Dollar. MONTHLY CHAR…
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DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 25 Sep.

thanks, QE 3 isnt gonna do much to stimulate growth, just limit downside risks. Despite the European and Asian export market downturn, a lower USD definitely would still help

Nick_T avatar
Nick_T 26 Sep.

DaddyPapi, are you more into the Forex market or do you also pay some interest to stock market? Do you trade for living?

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 26 Sep.

Another excellent analysis in a great article, good luck...

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 26 Sep.

Thanks Linnux, Nick T, Forex is the focus, will branch off into stock markets later since the patterns and principles are the same...yes I trade live and earn income, but part-time for now..

scramble avatar
scramble 27 Sep.

seems like if we no see a new clear high this week... shorts will be in play next one to go for 8000. just an opinion looking develops in PA. great analysis btw!

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24/35
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The latest successful trade in this high probability, high risk strategy came from the GBP USD, which resumed the rally inside of the large Weekly range to provide another 100-Pip profit target. The pair had been languishing for sometime above the Support of the Weekly Chart’s Range, but finally began to head towards the Resistance after breaking out of a Pennant formed at that Support. The most outstanding feature of the trade was the appearance of several Consolidation patterns across the time frames that provided additional confirmation of the direction of the market. Once these patterns are correctly identified, they can assist traders to decipher the ´noise´ that appears on charts from time to time, allowing them to profit from the breakouts when the periods of market indecision have ended. To quickly review the main aspects of the strategy, it involves: Using the Weekly, Monthly and Daily Charts to provide market direction; Waiting for the Daily Signal to indicate the start of a trend; Using the 4H Chart and 30 Minute Charts for entry setups and signals, respectively; Aiming for a 100-Pip Target in the direction of the trend; Using Stops of 40 Pips on average for a 2,5 Ris…
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scramble avatar
scramble 14 Sep.

I also believe a lot in weekly study to recognize great trade opportunities. Personally I prefere trades for 40 to 90 pips and hardly hold a position for more than 1 day because i'm still unable to manage with my mind.. so my compliments to you in this!

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 14 Sep.

thanks scramble..it isnt easy, thats true..but I got the confidence to stay in these trades after testing the strategy in detail over a long period.

Likerty avatar
Likerty 17 Sep.

Yep - it went long certainly!:))

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 19 Sep.

Nice trade, and your strategy seems to be profitable, good luck...

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10/48
Ranking
During the
recently concluded Dukascopy trading contest in May this year, I traded my
favourite pairs using the chart pattern strategies that I have found to be more
than sufficient for trading success in both demo and live trading. This
strategy landed me the 23rd spot in the competition with only 16
trades for an accuracy rate of 63%.
 
As I review each
of the profitable trades during the month, I will explain the rationale behind
them using chart patterns such as Consolidations, Trend Lines and Counter Trend
Lines. These are the tools that I use to analyze the market without the use of
indicators or fundamental announcements since once accurately used, these tools
by themselves can correctly provide the signals for market direction, entry and
exit for traders.KEY CHART PATTERNS
& SIGNALS
 
Breaks of
Consolidation
 
Once Consolidation patterns are broken with a strong
closed candle, trades can be made in the direction of the breakout especially
if it coincides with the major trend. Naturally, false breakouts are also
possible.
 
Breakout Equivalent
 
Whenever Consolidation Patterns are broken, they
usually end at the distance that is equal to the width of the pattern broken.
This…
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DaddyPapi avatar

I am not in a position to know how all these traders will do this month versus last month..I dont their strategies nor how the market will play out this month.

scramble avatar
scramble 5 June

you did an excellent trading! well done in sharing it, people must understand how to follow the trend and what to look at. also me sometimes i try to fight the trend!
wish you best of profits in your trading :-)

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 6 June

Congratulations for yours' analysis and winning trades, good luck for this contest too...

MrSami avatar
MrSami 6 June

nice article, good luck.

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 27 June

You seem to be a good trader and I respect You. Congratulations for the great trading outcome.

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13/67
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The recent decline in the Euro against several currencies this week provided another great opportunity for traders to make money in the Forex market. After moving within a large Pennant Consolidation for several months, the EURO USD finally broke the 1.3000 Support  with a bearish candlestick breakout. DAILY CHARTThe breakout
from the Pennant coincided with more negative news in the Eurozone regarding
the sustainability of the fiscal austerity measures and the economic growth outlook
for the region. The change in government in France has threatened the success
of the coordinated fiscal agreements for the Eurozone given the new president’s
staunch opposition to the austerity measures. With Greece
also in political limbo with the rise in prominence of the parties opposed to
the harsh fiscal measures, investors believe it could lead to a default by Greece
and a subsequent exit from the common currency. This would then lead to higher
borrowing costs being demanded by bond traders, pushing Spain
and Italy further into debt. Within this context of technical and fundamental factors, a simple trade was executed using the 4 Hour and 30 Minute Charts to short the EURO USD.4H CHARTWhenever th…
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DaddyPapi avatar

thanks doc..I try to keep it simple and in direction of trend..I agree 1,2600 looks like next pullback area, then 1.2470 which is the Support of the Monthly Pennant.

alifari avatar
alifari 19 May

Nice analysis +1

positive avatar
positive 19 May

Presentation is too good. Neat and straight to the point. Of course I can make out that you love pennats!!

DaddyPapi avatar

thanks...I should add that the 100-pip target area is part of my live account trading strategy, not an arbitrary figure...

DaddyPapi avatar

100 pips chosen because I trade 4H Breakouts using the 30 M chart and most of these breakouts go for this target in a short time before they pullback..even though the trade may provide more pips, I am going for quick turnvover

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