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INDICATORS: Parabolic Sar, Money Flow Index, Linear Regression Slope
RESISTANCE LEVELS: 50.298 - 52.913
Brent W1 chart have shown a bearish/trendless tendency as indicated in fig 1, the pair candle close around the middle Bollinger Band. In this TF the linear regression slope and the cycle seems to support with a greater probability of having a bullish retracement even if the market tendency should prefere the sellers.
This W1 analysis for that reasons suggest a bullish indication with W1 first objective around the 52.913 zone.The W1 objective could integrate the SMA_100. A bearish objective in a W1 scale could be considered at the 46.603 price zone.
On a D1 scale the candle close between the SMA_200 and the SMA_100. In this context the trend is considered with a bullish rally. The objective for this tf could be indicated at the SMA_100 objective zone. In this scale the Volume analysis shows a no positive derivative but in value still greater than the October 2016 (reference system for a trendless/indecision indication). So technically also the D1 scale suggest a bearish analysis with a possibility of a bullish retr…
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VictoriaVika avatar

Nice written!

klizthiac avatar
klizthiac 21 Nov.

Good work

brilliant avatar
brilliant 24 Nov.

great effort

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If the main macro theme of 2014 was the broad based dollar strength, the general consensus for 2015 is for further appreciation of the dollar. The implication of a strong dollar, and with the pick up in volatility, have also set in motion other trends, like the bearish commodity trends(see Metals and Oil), the carry trade has died (see AUD/USD and NZD/USD) and last but not least EUR/USD has finally started trading to the downside.
The broad based dollar strength can have a big impact on US economy, like lower inflation and this can be the trigger, next year 2015, for a considerable correction in the equity market but without altering the secular bull trend. I'm making a bold call here that the equity market will have a severe correction in 2015, once we complete a PI cycle from the 2007 high. "PI" the magic number has the following significance:
  • PI=3,141;
  • Multiply (Pi)*1000=3141;
  • 3141 days equal 8.6 year;
  • If you add 8.6 years to the 2007 high it bring us to October 2015 as the next intermediate top.

Because of the dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency, the impact of the broad based dollar strength can trigger some "consequences" in other part of the world such…
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Daytrader21 avatar

JockPippin I really don't understand what are you trying to say.

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salamandra avatar
salamandra 28 Dec.

Багато з чим не погоджуюсь... Але робота сподобалась в плані знаходження позиційного планування і інвестування...

foreignexchange avatar

Good Evening Daytrader21, thanks for the article. It could be very interesting. I like the article even there are parts that could be explained differently. HMM can probably prove mathematically the assumption in fig 5, maybe also other different stochastic processes ...... but I suppose that fractals are not so indicated. You should need a kind of  complex quadratic polynomials to calculate  swing below 1.3490. But if it is just your intuition it could be statistically compatible with other parametric models.  But .. GOOD JOB and THANK YOU VERY MUCH. Good trading 

marius24 avatar
marius24 30 Dec.

yap. I like this article. Let's see if you are right when 2015 ends. Good luck bro with your trading and hope you put all this work into practice.

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The major macroeconomic factors, defining currency exchange rate are discussed. Correlation between oil prices and current account balance for Canada is outlined. An“abnormal” state of futures market, known as “backwardation”, is described. An indispensable feature, signifying minimum in oil prices, is proposed as a corollary. Further dynamics of the Canadian dollar is discussed.
It is ubiquitously acknowledged that the main driving forces behind currency dynamics, absent the Central Bank interventions, are interest rates spreads as well as current account and capital account balances. Provided that the former parameter is negligibly small or kept unchanged for long period of time, the importance of the latter parameters increases.
When commodity price holds the key to currency exchange rate
Canada is a perfect case of a country that developed commodity oriented economy. Advantages as well as drawbacks of so lopsided economical structure are simple to grasp – current account as well as capital account balances (see fig. 1 and fig. 2) become prone to the vicissitudes of world demand for a certain raw material. This high demand might be invoked by legitimate growth of ec…
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Irishka456 avatar
Irishka456 29 Sep.

Полезная информация. Вы молодец

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HelgaPehkel avatar

I really have read this, not just put like, but i even do not know what to say, this is not my topic, i am too far from CAD and oil

Polinka avatar
Polinka 1 Oct.

many questions cause confusion...

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Hi all,
I am not a great writer but I want to share a real scam story and lessons we can learn from scam / ponzi scheme
It is a story of recent commodity scam happened 4 months back in India to a tune of 750 million USD.
The worst part is even after 4 months of exposed scam where the money gone is still not known.
The Set - Up,
Investors (13000 + investors all High Net Investors)
Brokers - Who promoted the scheme (commodity arbitrage)
NSEL - National Spot Exchange Limited - It started as commodity exchange promoted for benefit to farmers but acted as non banking finance limited.
Borrowers- NSEL loaned money taken from investors.
Execution -
Investors were pulled in promoting it as commodity arbitrage scheme, buying and selling of commodity at same time which will earn return of 12 to 15% annual basis buying in spot and selling the future contract. Investors were guaranteed that the scheme is safe as in case of risk arises they always have commodity worth of their investment safe in warehouse also the exchange has settlement guaranteed fund of 200 million USD to avoid settlement risk arising from borrowers. Investor were happy as if they kept the same money in banks the return w…
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Likerty avatar
Likerty 20 Nov.

I would say that all markets are scam:) None of them doesnt have anything to do with the VALUE (just a myth).. Constant manipualtion by the market movers makes it impossible to trade within the logic of fundamentals. But, if one masters behaviour patterns of the market movers - its possible to grab some. So - scam ro no scam, better to focus what big fiches are doing - and fallow their story:)

thescalper avatar
thescalper 20 Nov.

Market Manipulation is a good thing you can win or loose, market scam you are definitely going to loose.

MaximumLots avatar

Find an edge in the market and then use it

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  • Introduction.
On 31st July this year Dukascopy Bank announced on the main page in news section that has received a Securities Dealer License, issued by FINMA, and therefore will extend the scope of financial instruments offered on its trading platforms with CFD instruments (Contract for Difference) on a wide range (about 200) of underlying assets, like major indices, stocks and commodities which are programmed to be lunched soon.
Having this in mind and the fact that I have 3 years experience in CFD trading, I have decided to write this article which is the first in a long series that will come, having as main topic CFDs and everything that you need to know about them. In this article I will present basics like what are CFDs?, why they exist? ,trading possibilities and some main advantages.

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Metal_Mind 19 Nov.

3. The minimum margin requirement is very low comparing to a traditional aquisition of stocks or future contracts which will require you to have all the margin and a very big account in order to do that. With CFDs you only need to deposit 5-10 % for shares and 1 % for indices. See the example at Potential Return section above.!!
4. CFDs are also tax eficient , are exempt from stamp duty which applies in UK
5.CFDs have very low commision and it is very cheap to trade them which find them very attractive for the little investor.

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 19 Nov.

@rokastlu : You will sure find a place for them in your trading portofolio.!

aslamhammad avatar

nice article :)

Mani avatar
Mani 21 Nov.

good work +1

aashjan413 avatar
aashjan413 27 Nov.

well done boss i like your article very much

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In economic crisis many investors put their portofolio in forex market, stock and commodities.Too many people think that put their investments into commodities such gold are best for future, and also many big banks still holding Gold as their financial backup.During hundred years gold became popular as good investment but since gold ever down more than 5% in one day period (it happened two years ago in 2011 when gold suddenly drop down more than 5% in a day period) then gold is no more safety for long term investment.In 2013 many economic analysis predicted gold will be rise up again, they using economic parameters especially global economic issues as the power to bring up gold again, but I dont agree with them!Why? because I saw that market in 2013 will be more pressure gold down.Gold now became populars as the source for speculation beside currencies and stocks. Gold will be more wild than currencies trading or forex in 2013.In my humble opinion gold still will be down 20-30% from its presents price.Why do we need gold? People no need gold, people need money for life, gold just like other stuff like otomotives and electronics, fashions etc.Some issues said that gold more needed i…
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bmg avatar
bmg 7 Jan.

nice article +1 happy new year 2013 +11

ante777 avatar
ante777 21 Jan.

Good aricle.

kelvindfxguru avatar

Very Informative Article

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