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4/32
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FX 2017 highlights
  • Euro was the strongest performer last year on dissipating geopolitical risk, strong economic growth and ECB tapering.Pound,
  • Aussie and Loonie also did well.
  • Dollar Index down by 10%. The reason for this big move is that other CBs will likely tighten following FED.
FX year to date
  • Sizeable movement for short span of time.
  • Dollar still is the punching bag.
  • Pound outperformance on Brexit optimism.
  • Aussie, Kiwi outperformed on better global economic prospects and rising commodity prices.
  • Yen is not as bearish as expected.
United Stated Economy

  • Annualized growth topped 3% in Q2 and Q3 but Q4 GDP growth missed the expectation to grow by 2.6%. However growth to return above 3% after tax rate cut effect.
  • Headline Inflation for December 2017 was 2.1% y/y, below the 2017 high of 2.7% hit in February. Core PCE came in at 1.5 % y/y in December.
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Verona888 avatar
Verona888 12 Mar.

Great job!)

Vlad73 avatar
Vlad73 16 Mar.

good luck

habiemile avatar
habiemile 20 Apr.

Interesting article!

pramuk avatar
pramuk 3 June

Nice

mydream avatar
mydream 8 June

good

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1/34
Ranking
FX performance Q3 highlights

  • Dollar slightly down in Q3, dollar/yen flat as Fed maintains rate hike path but other central banks catch up.
  • Euro rally pauses after reaching 2 and ½ years high in September. ECB is proceeding gently with tightening policy. Political risks re-emerge in Europe.
  • Pound has a good Q3 quarter after a surprise hawkish shift by Bank of England. Brexit talks gather some momentum but take its toll on UK economy.
  • Commodity rally (especially metals). Oil also has a positive quarter amid signs that market is finally re-balancing.
FX year to date

  • US dollar off its lows as one more rate hike expected.
  • Euro’s rally has stalled on some political setbacks and ECB’s dovish tapering. Rise in German yields.
  • The pound up versus the dollar, down versus the Euro.
  • Aussie did well despite correction in Oct 2017, Kiwi is flat versus dollar.

United Stated Economy

  • Q3 GDP growth came in at 3.0%.
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mursei avatar
mursei 25 Nov.

مقال رائعه

Annyrio avatar
Annyrio 30 Nov.

very interesting!

khalidamassi avatar

Good luck +1

Yonggi7 avatar
Yonggi7 12 Dec.

This article is well done!
And it is well presented!
Congratulations!!!!

thedoctor avatar
thedoctor 15 Dec.

well done

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9/54
Ranking
Analysis of "PAST" help us to build better "FUTURE"

Hi Friends,
I have been in the Market almost for a year and here I want to share my experience as well as my analysis of some past important event so it will help us to deal properly with upcoming important events.
One of the most important as well as unexpected event was "BREXIT". Before the polling day most of the market participants were considering there would not be Brexit. British people will go with EU, but unexpected thing happened and people voted to leave European Union. And we have seen a sudden drastic reaction appeared all over the stock markets and in currency markets. All stock markets, currency markets in all over the world, fell by about 10 percent and the same day recovered by half and after that even stock markets all over the World are making new high over high's.
Below is the hourly chart of EUR/USD on 23rd June. Drastic reaction is visible as the counting of votes started. Then there itself we have seen a recovery by half and again a fall.
Below is the daily chart of EUR/USD. After fall of Brexit, almost within 2 month it has reached near same high as where it was before Brexit.
Reason was after the event…
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AngleRMS avatar

nothing will right nor wrong,its depend on the situation ,market is random like a mind

FXRabbit avatar

Very detailed article!

VAIBS1991 avatar

very informative article.

zarina avatar
zarina 12 May

Очень хорошо все описал !

Skif avatar
Skif 22 May

Everything interesting is just beginning. It is necessary to expect new shocks.

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33/65
Ranking
What the market has priced in already...

As we see, we are around the level of post referendum, when Brexit, especially hard Brexit was not certain at all. This is quite an optimistic and strong reaction from the market. The market has priced in almost a reversal in British approach.
No hard Brexit is just a hope

What we have to remember as traders is that right now it is just hopes priced in, without generally any hard facts to support them yet.
As it is used to be said 'sell the gossip, buy the fact'. The facts are still to be seen and assesed while gossip sold pretty well, giving disconnected with reality 180 degree sentiment change in the market.
Why disconnected? Well, maybe polls are not trusted recently, but this time they show Conservative Party being 20% ahead. That is quite a decisive prediction. Lead by Theresa May and her party, British would have hard Brexit almost assured, that is unless the party itself had huge internal differences in Brexit approach.
It seems that market just might have gotten a bit too excited again, this time to the upside.
The most positive scenario
Even if hard Brexit was somehow forgotten by the government, there still would be Brexit on the…
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mariailkiv avatar
mariailkiv 24 Apr.

хорошая статья!!

LizaQ avatar
LizaQ 24 Apr.

Great!

hrustiashka avatar

Good article. Thanks

antoniogreenblue avatar

Interesting

RahmanSL avatar

Useful article

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21/59
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How did I come to conclusion that avoiding pairs with USD might be a good idea for some time?

Although I agree that US election definitely was a great, tradeable opportunity (though not an easy one), right now I see no certain direction that FX majors will go this month. After the election things went out totally out of control. We had several situation when USD moved opaque to data reads due to new President's decisions causing major upset and mayhem across the markets. Probably some will say it is their kind of environment to trade on - volatile, sometimes rapid. Yet everyone has to agree that we have a high risk of unscheduled and unpredictable events moving USD now in a rather unknown direction.
Sometimes it is better to play safe instead of lose looking for enormous moves, in other words, better safe than sorry. The conclusion to avoid USD pairs for some time comes logical as we should base our trades on past, meaning technical analysis or on extrapolation of past data, meaning fundametal analysis and both do not work as it should now. It is also difficult to base trades on Mr Trump since he uses to tell contradictory things.

Is there anywhere to run?

Yes, the…
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ak10 avatar
ak10 8 Feb.

Rightly explained. Very useful.

antoniogreenblue avatar

Good explained. Related do GBP I like and trade the GBP/JPY ;)

Beto avatar
Beto 12 Feb.

It seems to be nice work with cross pairs for now, good share of information and research.

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 23 Feb.

Well written!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

Great job!

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2/59
Ranking
During the previous nine months, traders and pundits addressed their best attention to currencies such as the Pound and the Dollar. Brexit negotiations, Trump's interventions and the following expected or unexpected outcomes shall provide enough means for a tight covering of these two currencies in the months ahead. There's also the Yen, the Loonie and all its cousins, without forgetting emerging market currencies, such as the Peso and Turkish Lira… And the battle goes on!
UK Supreme court decision is steaming Pound's recent performance. The court ruled that Parliament approval is required to trigger the article 50 of the Lisbon treaty to allow UK quitting the EU. Judge’s voted 8-3 to reject government’s intentions to do it without parliamentary voting.
The currency surged against the Dollar and it seems to be poised for more gains. In the previous week, it has touched the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level, located at 1.2650, as shown in the following daily chart. Further upside strength shall be limited by the 1.28 area.
One of the biggest themes surrounding Brexit is financial services relocation. Several spots around Europe, such as Frankfurt, Paris, Madrid and Amsterdam are w…
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_shokolad_ avatar
_shokolad_ 24 Mar.

very interesting!))

SmErtNIK avatar
SmErtNIK 9 Apr.

довольно хорошо

ForexAlyoum avatar

Good Luck

ForexAlyoum avatar

Congratulations My Friend

fx_lmcap avatar
fx_lmcap 14 Apr.

Thank you ForexAlyoum!

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26/68
Ranking

Like many, we recognize that political factors may overshadow macroeconomic drivers in shaping the investment climate in the period ahead.
We suspect this will be very much the case in the coming days It is not that the economic data doesn’t matter, but for many investors, the imprecision and quirky nature of the high frequency economic data pale in comparison to the risks emanating from politics and policy.
Before providing a thumbnail sketch of the five events, we think may shape the investment climate in the week ahead, allow us to briefly preview the economic highlights. The US and Japan round out the large countries industrial output reports. Europe accelerated. Japan is will likely confirm the strongest monthly increase since March 2014. US industrial output is expected to have snapped back from a weak November. The soft patch the dragged it lower for three of the past four months through November may have ended.

The US, UK, and Canada report inflation measures.
UK inflation is expected to have stabilized at higher levels, though PPI may continue to trend higher. US headline CPI is expected to continue to converge with the core rate, as is repeatedly done for the past fift…
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edlim avatar
edlim 20 Jan.

http://www.marctomarket.com/2017/01/five-events-that-will-drive-capital.html

MR_KHALEDBADRY avatar

good job

Lowech avatar
Lowech 22 Jan.

очень хорошо

Natali_Niyazova avatar

well written! thank u! :)

brilliant avatar
brilliant 25 Jan.

good information

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6/68
Ranking
This article is about what currencies and other asset classes I think is going to be the most at risk and can offer us the best opportunities in term of risk to reward ratio in the year ahead. 2016 has caused a lot of trauma in terms of volatility and it also builds up extreme trends that I would consider extreme because they don’t really fit between fundamental, technical and market conditions and that creates a lot of anxiety and it certainly curbs the potential for follow through. This kind of market conditions sends a clear warning that trends can reverse or at least give us a decent tradable retracement.
We’re going to look at a possible rebalancing of these divergent aspects and I think this is going to feed into the trading opportunities that we have in 2017.
EUR/USD Trade Opportunity for 2017
The EUR/USD is the most severe or at risk currency amongst the majors as the parity level will act as a catalyst and ultimately this will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, what is more important is what will happen with EUR/USD after the parity level is reached? I believe that the answer to this question will reveal the EUR/USD trade for 2017.
The monetary policy bearings th…
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rupesh1984 avatar
rupesh1984 18 Jan.

well done,speechless cant explain in word for ur deep analysis :)

Daytrader21 avatar

scramble Thanks

Daytrader21 avatar

rupesh1984 appreciate your kind words. I'm hoping and I'm confident that my forecast will be proven right by the markets.

TInna avatar
TInna 19 Jan.

woooow....super!)

brilliant avatar
brilliant 25 Jan.

nice work as usual. do you think  day traders can  benefit that kind of overall analysis ?

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17/47
Ranking
The British consumer confidence has suffered its biggest drop in more than 20 years.
Post referendum sentiment unveils doubts over how the British economy will behave as non-EU member.
A survey by market research group GfK revealed a deep fall in the confidence among consumers from -1 to -9, as shown in the Infographic (source: www.gfk.com).
The details of Britain’s exit are murky, at best. There are a lot of uncertainties over the period where the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty will be triggered.
Unless these questions are answered and a clear path forward emerges, the pound outlook will remain posed for the downside.
There appears to be little in the way of technical support to stop the currency from breaching several support areas in the months ahead.
Property prices in the UK and in London specifically, have come under pressure in the run-up to the EU referendum, as well as following it.
Dukascopy Research products [1] revived that:

June was the worst month in seven years period for the Britain’s builders since construction PMI entered a
contraction territory, (...) slipping to 46.0 points, from 51.2 (...)
Mark Carney highlighted (...) [that the] central bank would have to provide more[/that]
[/1]…
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Sveetlana avatar
Sveetlana 29 July

interesting...

voldemar avatar
voldemar 29 July

nice article

fxsurprise8 avatar

interesting views fella :)

Yulia10 avatar
Yulia10 31 July

good job

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 26 Aug.

Very interesting article!

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19/47
Ranking
Since the brexit sparked another round of gold buying, I was prompted to read and analyze correlation between the gold, inflation and public debt. As from the 2000s, the Gold prices have participated in a bull run. As a key reason, the "easy money" policies of majority of key world's central banks are to blame. So, why is the gold traditional hedge against inflation ? I have been hearing this line on the CNBC and Bloomberg for years and years, especially since we are currently in the phase of deflation.
So what are the conditions that represent inflation? That list include rising property prices, a rising stock market, and increasing asset values. But also the debt burden, representing debt with relation to income, is increasing.
Inflation v Debt
High inflation usually travels hand in hand with higher debt burdens. What does this mean ? Let me try to explain this. Imagine a situation where the government borrows $10 billion today from the market and that inflation is 5%, and the government bonds yields 10%. After a year, the government owes the same $10 bn that they borrowed. Add to that 10% interest and a total is $11 bn. Since the bond yield (10%) is above the inflation rate, th…
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Forex_champion avatar

Nice info

sonjatrader avatar

Great article

hrustiashka avatar

Good article!

scramble avatar
scramble 20 July

Simple, quick, and clear! I like this article! Nice job :)

samymahrous avatar

good written

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6/47
Ranking

US retail sales climbed 0.5% in May surpassing 0.3% forecasted by analysts. The Commerce Department said that retail sales gauged 2.5% compared with the same period a year ago.
Dukascopy Research Products [1] revived that:
US Federal Reserve was forced to keep the target range for the Federal Funds rate flat at 0.25-0.50% after its June
14-15 meeting (...) Domestic data has been uneven recently, with mild payrolls report considered to be the key
trigger for accepting the status-quo.

On the short-term basis, several overseas risks are still weighing on Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. Britain's vote to leave the EU, China’s lack of demand and miscalculated debt levels, Brazil’s political crisis and Japanese bond yields deepening further into negative territory.
The effect of a Fed interest rate hike could dampen the economic outlook, posing serious risks for equity markets.
Ray Dalio interviewed by Bloomberg Reporter Erik Schatzker [2] earlier this year said that the Fed’s next big move:
This point of view seemed me unappropriated at the time, however at the current standings, I give up my own bets on Fed’s rate hikes and curb myself to Mr. Dalio’s point [/2][/1]…
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BhimSha56166409 avatar

Great and Intresting

tangell avatar
tangell 28 July

good job

Sveetlana avatar
Sveetlana 29 July

useful informations

voldemar avatar
voldemar 29 July

nice article

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 26 Aug.

Very interesting article!

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29/52
Ranking
In the aftermath of the 2015 general election and amid growing calls from the UKIP (UK Independence Party), but also from his own Conservative party, the Prime Minister David Cameron promised to hold a Referendum on whether the UK should stay in the EU or leave. The Referendum, which is scheduled for 23 June 2016, is the first one after 1975, where the Brits voted to stay with the EU. To make things clear, the question is formulated as: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
Back in January, Cameron announced a "big win" in his negotiations with the EU, while his critics said his deal will make little difference and nothing but the "Leave" can save UK from the EU. One of the elements that Cameron strongly argued is that the UK will keep the pound as its currency and will not join single-currency community (19 out of 28 EU countries have adopted Euro as their currency).
Both sides have campaigned strongly to advocate for "Leave" or "Remain". On the latter side, the charge has been led by former Marks and Spencer chairman Lord Rose, but more importantly from the three UK's biggest parties: The Conservatives (Prime Minister David…
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10/52
Ranking
1. Introduction.

Les sujets de Sa Très Gracieuse Majesté devront se rendre aux urnes le 23 juin pour décider de quitter ou de rester dans l'union européenne. A défaut de pouvoir confronter les idées que le temps ne permet plus, les deux camps s'affrontent à coup d'arguments péremptoires. Tout le monde aura bien compris que l'enjeu de ce référendum va bien au-delà de l'avenir seul du Royaume-Uni dans l'union européenne.
Face aux déclarations des uns et des autres, les autorités européennes se veulent optimistes mais se gardent bien de tout commentaire qui pourrait retourner l'opinion publique. Les marchés, quant à eux, sont à la baisse face à des sondages indécis. Nous reviendrons plus en détail sur chacun de ces points.
2. Opinions

Les sorties du premier ministre britannique, David Cameron, ont été nombreuses ces derniers temps. Il a exhorté ses concitoyens à voter en faveur d'un maintien du Royaume-Uni dans l'union européenne en insistant sur les conséquences d'un Brexit.
Selon le premier ministre, une sortie de l'union aura l'effet "d'une bombe sur l'économie britannique"...."Nous aurons une décennie d'incertitude.... qui pompera l'énergie du gouvernement et du pays", en référe…
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Yulia10 avatar
Yulia10 21 June

nice article!

Faster avatar
Faster 22 June

nice article

vikyllya avatar
vikyllya 23 June

very good

JuliannaS avatar
JuliannaS 23 June

So good and interesting

tomaca avatar
tomaca 26 June

Получилось очень интересно, пробили вверх канал и тут же резкое падение вниз, как вы и говорили, пробили вниз 1,3830, и теперь, так думаю все таки Британцы  будут укреплять свою валюту, как вы думаете?

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25/52
Ranking
With the EU referendum on June 23 for Great Britain to exit from the EU currency bloc, we should expect to see greater volatility from currencies. So far, the consensus going towards an exit has been unfavorable, as trading has been negative with any hint of them leaving. Yet the financial polls show strengthening support to the contrary; people think that, essentially, Great Britain will stay. There is also rumor that investors believe this should be good for the Euro, based on consensus.
Systemically, there are plenty of indications that currency volatility should go up with Poland, Greece, Sweden and France expressing a loss of confidence in the EU, in addition to Britain. This run-on effect points to greater volatility in the FX markets.
NOTEWORTHY
Also noteworthy are comments from former prime minister, John Major, who had been in favor of a free-floating currency during his tenure, is reported saying that Britain’s intention to leave the EU is ‘a campaign verging on the squalid’. Here’s a link to the report at MarketPulse.
PERSONAL TRADING
I’m keeping an overall negative bias on the Euro, despite there being volatile upside potential, I would look for overbought le…
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pshan avatar
pshan 10 June

Here's the video.

Sveetlana avatar
Sveetlana 13 June

interesting

JuliannaS avatar
JuliannaS 14 June

video is good , it  is complementary article

black_box_xx avatar

good job!

klintons avatar
klintons 16 June

Good article

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26/52
Ranking
Hello again from Southern California! The school year is done, some wedding bells are ringing, and summer is nearly here. I wish everything were really that rosy, but summer doldrums are definitely in the cards for financial markets, and I’m hoping that tensions will subside, I sense that fear could take over with regions across the globe on alert as they are here in Los Angeles.
I am so excited for the Olympics and for the beautiful country of Brazil that they may have a safe and prosperous games. For this article I’m going to make it article as useful and entertaining as possible, so I’m embedding a video presentation that can be viewed, and here it is:
SHINY SPOTS
This week’s update is fairly straight forward, no surprises, which should be good for most. As I mentioned in the previous article, there are a few bright spots that are shining very well in the U.S. economy. Reports of new home sales soared very well and pending home sales demolished consensus expectations by a margin of 430 basis points with a 5.1% month-to-month gain.
JUNE RATE HIKE
The strength of the dollar was a bit of a surprise to me, but when factoring all the talk about rate hikes imminent for June, it’s…
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hrustiashka avatar

Good!

pshan avatar
pshan 5 June
FX Presentation 6 1 2016
Video presentation that accompanies article on 6.1.2016. Video presentation that accompanies article on 6.1.2016.

Thank you love! Here is the video link to accompany the article.

s_amira avatar
s_amira 6 June

Thank you for  your article!

Sennna88 avatar
Sennna88 7 June

good job! well done!

scramble avatar
scramble 9 June

nice idea to attach a video on comment section! can I steal your idea for my next ones :)?
I don't really see any reasons why the US should hike rates now a part of rumoring and shaking markets. Could be eventually a shy 0.10 hike. But I personally see this coming later this year (maybe)

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