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27/32
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Hints and Ideas about FX Majors

Ideas from last week :

  • USD enjoyed a ride against most currencies as US data helped a lot, ADP and NFP employment data were better, Wages growth at 2.9% VS 2.6% expected and all of this helped expectation of higher interest rate at (FED) March meeting.
  • Euro still hold last month gains VS majors as EU data still helpful, also most of (ECB) speakers agreed that next normalization step should be soon and some hint that QE may end at September meeting and all of this helpful for Euro bulls.
  • Aussie got a hit last week as most AUD data disappointed, Mean CPI Q/Q 0.6% VS 0.7 expected, Building approvals -20% VS -7% expected and all of this put heavy weight on Aussie.
  • Kiwi moved in mixed VS majors as no significant Kiwi data last week but Kiwi mostly affected by drop of Aussie which in most time move in same direction VS majors.
[list][/list]…
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9/56
Ranking

At a time when the world is facing a major financial disruption investors look for a safe haven for their money, and despite the economic backdrop the yen is seen as one of the safe havens, a place with little risk.
Paradoxically, the world's largest debtor nation, with negative interest rates and an ageing citizenry don't seem to gather the regular conditions for the country’s currency to spike, but that’s exactly what has been happening to the yen during this year.
Polls over the past year have shown that more than three quarters of the Japanese population have not benefited from Abenomics.
The economy is at a standstill, wages and household income are stagnant and deflationary pressures remains strong.
When it was first advertised, Abenomics filled the Japanese stakeholders with encouraging expectations over an economic rebound.
With too little changes in the economic situation, the current policy is gathering the acronym of the “welfare for the wealthy” - it only boosts Nikkei and Topix.
William Pesek [1] author of Japanization: What the World Can Learn from Japan’s Lost Decades (2015) stated by Jeff Kingston:
Abe’s catchy marketing campaign wowed a media establishment accustom
[/1]…
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Tasha_Mk avatar
Tasha_Mk 26 Oct.

great

k_morocco avatar
k_morocco 26 Oct.

very intersting

Boznow avatar
Boznow 29 Oct.

Bardzo interesujące

Alexander22 avatar

good job

Mani avatar
Mani 17 Nov.

good job

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17/59
Ranking
As I have announced in my previous article, I’m still expecting very interesting and surprising developments in the coming months and actually it has been happening in May, but certainly this is not the end of excitement in the forex. In the series of articles titled “Forex Weekly Outlook” will continue to provide my opinion to readers together with detailed information analyzes and forecasts for the currency pairs that they are asking for. Of course, I want to encourage readers to any suggestions, questions or requests to write in the commentary box. Based on the suggestions from Dukascopy community members, this week I will analyze the USDJPY and I expect the biggest volatility in this pair. I want to introduce a novelty – a new subtitle, which will go from now on every week and will represent a review of the last week in which I will try to remind you about the most important events of the last week.
Review of the last week
After several days of weakening dollar, Tuesday was a U-turn day. In almost all USD currency pairs daily candle was inverse hammer or a hammer. Investor’s concerns are that the currency with negative interest rates strengthened against the dollar so that is…
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bokafx avatar
bokafx 29 May

Good technical analysis for USD/JPY, useful article.

Helena_Prekrasnaj avatar

I like your idea for writing several articles!

Govagent avatar
Govagent 1 June

Yup, I'm waiting for the bounce all right ^_^

amerfx86 avatar
amerfx86 6 June

Thanks all  for support!!!!!

amerfx86 avatar
amerfx86 6 June

As we seen in friday and yesterday 106.50 support is in play again and as i mentioned in the article buyers are ready to put the trade on the price range from previous low of 105.4-106.50. Every move in this range we seen after strong bounce.

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24/51
Ranking
Central Banks are clustering negative interest rates as a new fashionable monetary policy tool. After Sweden, Switzerland and Denmark, the new fellows are the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank.
The ECB has cut a key rate further into negative territory in March 2016. It now charges banks 0,4% to hold their cash overnight. Draghi said that the central bank’s stimulus measures are intended to last until March 2017 or longer if necessary.
The Bank of Japan has also adopted the negative interest rates strategy. It is now charging banks 0,1% for parking additional reserves, with the aim to encourage lending and prompt businesses and savers to invest.
It seems that central banks are all seeking a weaker exchange rate without weighing the risk of an open currency war, losing their ability to boost prices and competitiveness through currency devaluation.
Negative interest rates reduces the cost of borrowing and perhaps should spike demand for loans. Jana Randow and Simon Kennedy [1] noticed:
that when banks absorb the cost themselves, it squeezes the profit margin between their lending and deposit rates,
and might make them even less willing to lend. (...) negative rates haven’t spa
[/1]…
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zarina avatar
zarina 16 Apr.

good work!!! Thank you

black_box_xx avatar

great! thank you for your article :)

Kivetat avatar
Kivetat 19 Apr.

Good job))

rajib217 avatar
rajib217 23 Apr.

Great article

TaniaS avatar
TaniaS 5 May

Very interesting!

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3/66
Ranking

The yen is being traded with an unfavourable volatility. This is due to the negativity of the interest rate. Nikkei 225 index has fallen from 19,033 points at the beginning of the year till 15,960 points at the end of February. The recent sell off in equities is lightening that recent BOJ measures are short-lived, pointing out into further intervention.
Japan’s economy shrank 0.4% quarter on quarter in the last three months of 2015, dragged down by a fall in consumers spending and housing investment, failing 0.3% GDP (QoQ) shrinkage forecasted by analysts.
Reporting Mario Blascak and Matus Mader [1],
With the Japanese yen breaking to multi-year highs, the likelihood of further monetary stimulus from the Bank of
Japan (BoJ) rises.

Kuroda’s efforts enhanced in 2013 with a massive Q.Q.E. program to combat the 15-year long era of deflation are not providing the results yet predicted.
The recent downtrend in yen vs other major currencies is unwelcome, as it tightens the competiveness of Japan’s exports. It also pressures the unwanted Japanese imports purchase power, which unweighs in BOJ’s 2% targeted inflation.
Markets are questioning the effectiveness of negative interest rates to lift [/1]…
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Sveetlana avatar
Sveetlana 19 Mar.

Very good article. Good luck!

EliasOmar avatar
EliasOmar 22 Mar.

great article .. keep going

angelina_may avatar

i like it)

rajib217 avatar
rajib217 25 Mar.

Nice Article

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 31 Mar.

excellent article!

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26/76
Ranking
What is Negative Interest Rate Policy?:

A negative interest rate policy is an unconventional monetary policy tool employed by Central Banks where the nominal interest rate is below zero hence the term negative. It is unconventional because instead of the depositors earning money for their deposits in Banks, the depositors are charged for their deposits in the banks. Negative interest rate do not directly impact small investors but can indirectly have effect from the spillover of banks having deposits at other big banks/central banks.
Why Negative Interest Rate Policy?

The policy of negative interest rate is employed when the central bank observes in its economy of the following :
  1. Low or no growth
  2. Deflation
  3. Hoard of money by people and business
Central Bank’s policy aim is to make people and businesses to spend and invest money instead of keeping money at the bank and to stop prices from falling, increase real production and output, and decrease of unemployment. Such loose and expansionary monetary policy is employed usually to deal with such stagnation in the economy.
When a Central Bank has set a negative interest rate, it means depositor will be charged for keeping their mone…
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zarina avatar
zarina 27 Feb.

You are waiting for the fall of the Euro ?

Nihad avatar
Nihad 27 Feb.

Good luck buddy

wisdom_consultant avatar

nice article

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54/76
Ranking
Introduction:
Interest Rate is among the most important fundamental data that impacts the currency of a country. It's of vital importance for any trader to keep a watch on this important data for his or her trading activities. A change in Interest Rate viz. a hike or a cut could be a percursor to a long term bearish or bullish bias respectively on the currency.
Interest Rate is the also most important tool major Central Banks around the world like FED, ECB, BOJ, PBOC etc use to guide the economy and the overall markets to its desired goals. Interest Rates are set by Central Banks to majorly keep inflation within a limit and to promote or curb lending. For instance, if prices for essential items and inflation are ballooning in conjunction with better economic conditions, Central Banks will hike Interest Rate to curb money supply to control price rise and inflation.
How Rates are calculated? :
Board of Directors of Central Banks controls the monetary policy of its country. They set the short-term interests at which banks can borrow from one another. Central Banks gather various relevant economic indicators from its economy to decide on Interest Rates to keep as its is or to cut o…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar

good job!

Jenny26 avatar
Jenny26 18 Feb.

nice article))

zarina avatar
zarina 19 Feb.

done a good article!

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 21 Feb.

useful work!

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30/76
Ranking

ECB decided to leave rates unchanged in its last meeting in January. Reporting Fergal O'Brien [1],
ECB President Mario Draghi has said the Governing Council will review its stimulus in March amid signs that falling
oil prices will push the euro region’s inflation rate back to zero.

Euro unemployment rate decreased from 10.5% to 10.4% last December, bringing tiny signs of relief for ECB Governing Council. Unemployment rate dropped in Germany to 6.2%, the lowest level since 2013. In the opposite side Finland sees its unemployment rate jumping to 9.5%.
Reporting Chris Williamson [2], Chief Economist at Markit, January’s
Rates of growth continued to diverge markedly, (...) Italy’s growth rate looks to have slipped to just 0.3% and France,
once again the laggard, has returned to stagnation,

while Spain lead the gains with PMI signalling 0.75% growth rate.
Although some Euro zone economies are delivering a sustainable growth, other ones are still providing signs of concerns with steady growth, narrowing stagnation. Facing a mixed economic environment, markets will sharply watch ECB next meeting, holding for super (Mario) stimulus, levelling expectations into a supplementary purchase package.[/2][/1]…
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Nihad avatar
Nihad 24 Feb.

Super MARIO and what the YELLIN' is all about. Thx for this interesting outlook

fx_lmcap avatar
fx_lmcap 24 Feb.

Thanks!

Tasha_Mk avatar
Tasha_Mk 25 Feb.

good luck!!!

Melody avatar
Melody 25 Feb.

Nice report!

Govagent avatar
Govagent 25 Feb.

This is useful, thanks. saves me the effort of searching some information, great job ^_^

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31/76
Ranking
Introduction
In this article USDJPY will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the USDJPY.
What is affected the move of USD/JPY nowadays:
Fundamental analysis
USD/JPY is affected now by two different policies by both Bank of Japan (BOJ) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by BOJ quantitative easing which strongly hit Japanese Yen, finally Yen and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
[list][/list]…
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Natalia_Kisenko avatar

weel done! it seems now is scenario #3

khalidamassi avatar

Yeah, natallia we r now exactly in scenario #3 with big target ....

zarina avatar
zarina 12 Feb.

I wish you, the option that is waiting!

FX90 avatar
FX90 19 Feb.

good article

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 21 Feb.

great article!  good luck!

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16/61
Ranking
Introduction
In this article USDJPY will be analyzed both fundamentally and technically and as known nothing is impossible in Forex so different scenarios will be drawn to express about the most probable scenarios with the USDJPY.
What is affected the move of USD/JPY nowadays:
Fundamental analysis:
USD/JPY is affected now by two different policies by both Bank of Japan (BOJ) and United States Federal Reserve (FED) and also affected strongly by BOJ quantitative easing which strongly hit Japanese Yen, finally Yen and other currencies is affected due to strong growth in US in the last months which make US$ to be favored.
Different policies by BOJ and FED:
In last Octeber,2014 BOJ Bank of Japan to inject 80 trillion yen into its economy “In a week when In a week when the US Federal Reserve announced it was calling time on bond buying program, the Bank of Japan moved in the opposite direction by increasing stimulus through an expansion of its quantitative easing (QE) program” (Source: theguardian).
In different, US FED is ready to raise interest rate for the first time from years, FED delayed its first rate hike more than once in order to prevent broad US$ gains which may dampen …
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9jakas avatar
9jakas 23 Sep.

Useful article.

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 23 Sep.

Yes. Useful!

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13/22
Ranking
I didn’t expect to be writing this article so soon. The idea first came up after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly eased monetary policy on October 31st The BOJ increased its bond buying program from 70 to 80 trillion and tripled its ETF purchases from 1 to 3 trillion yen. The surprise move lead to a 292 pips rally in the USD/JPY and on October 31st the currency closed off the week at 112.32. In the next month the Yen continued to be sold aggressively and last Thursday the Dollar/Yen spiked at a high of 118.97. But let’s start from the beginning.
The Rise of Abenomics
The latest round of easing is a continuation of a BOJ policy started back in 2012. After coming to power in December of 2012, the current prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, started to implement a set of policies termed ‘’Abenomics’’. The aggressive policy changes involve radical quantitative easing, increase of public investment and structural reforms. Abe appointed Haruhiko Kuroda as head of the Bank of Japan with a mandate to generate 2 percent inflation. The inflation goal lead to the bank embarking on a massive buying spree during which the BOJ balance sheet almost doubled.
What’s Behind the Japanese Obsessio
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Convallium avatar
Convallium 30 Nov.

wonderful job!

fxigor avatar
fxigor 17 Dec.

I agree with this article.My aproach to forex market is technical but I agree that There Will be No Japanese Bailout.

fxsurprise8 avatar

fxigor glad you agree with me :)

Durden avatar
Durden 26 Jan.

Good job

driven avatar
driven 3 May

Extremely well-written article. I think your long-term assessment is probably true, but there is always danger in making short-term predictions.

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7/21
Ranking
Abstract
New approach of BoJ towards forex market interventions is described. Unintended consequences of new policy implementation are discussed. Alternative methods of lowering inflation at disposal of BoJ are considered; possible outcomes for different scenarios are outlined and their impact on JPY exchange rate is put forward.

For years now central bankers around the globe are trying to convince public that inflation is indispensable constituent of healthy economic growth and should be greeted with optimism as harbinger of coming prosperity. There is one caveat though they say, it should be rightly dosed at 2% annual rate; any readings below the desired level is deemed as counterproductive.
Considering relatively low levels of inflation in Japan over the last decades, at least according to government statistics, the aim of reaching “the target level” seems to be hard to achieve.
Considering that over the last decade inflation in Japan, at least according to government statistics, stayed at relatively low levels, the aim of reaching “the target value” might seem to be very hard to achieve.
Indeed, it is rather difficultto overcome deflationary forces in highly indebted econom…
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HelgaPehkel avatar

i just have closed buy order on USD/JPY on 104.13

speculo_ergo_sum avatar

thank you for reading my article:) I do appreciate any feedback, opinions, words of relentless criticism:)))))))))) well, I do think that JPY might go up, provided BoJ does right things. Speaking of short term trends, I hope that this week USDJPY will go down to at least 102.

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7/46
Ranking
Introduction:The unmissable Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting on Thursday the 4th of April has put in place a huge "shock and awe" level of QE, they have promised to purchase Japanese Government Bonds (JGB), ETF's and REIT's in order to increase the monetary base and help raise inflation.A breakdown of what the BoJ is actually doing is listed below;BoJ to buy 7 Trillion Yen of JGB's per month, all maturities up to 40 year bonds. Thus extending the average maturity to 7 years from 3 currently.BoJ to purchase "low risk" ETF's at a pace of 1 Trillion yen per year and REIT's at 30 Billion yen per year.2 year time zone to achieve 2% CPI Y/Y target.The overall aim of these measures is to double the monetary base, and hopefully, they believe, because of this they will start to see inflation. The current CPI Y/Y currently stands at 0.7% and has been almost stagnant for the past 18-20 years.Japan CPI Y/Y. Thomson ReutersAs you can see, they are aiming to target 2% (the yellow line) in a relatively short time frame, even though there is a 2 year target, if there is no improvement in the next 6-9 months there will be politcal pressure mounting._______________________________________________________…
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alifari avatar
alifari 28 Apr.

Excellent Article +1

valentine avatar
valentine 29 Apr.

Finally i get the chance to read a truly in-detail article, not only crap "hmm x is going down, its good to sell". More articles like this please! Thanks!

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 29 Apr.

cheers for the positive feedback guys :) not sure if I'll write these detailed articles much more, dukascopy don't seem to like them and they require a lot of effort, they seem to prefer trading strategies or coding, so depending on how this does I might write an article on potential housing bubble in singapore / new zealand as per request from a webinar but we'll see!

Thanks anyway.

xau avatar
xau 30 Apr.

Very professional i may say, hope to be at this level some day. All strategies dies at some point, but such analysis is everlasting. Thanks for your effort.

valentine avatar
valentine 30 Apr.

This article has to get in top 3, after dukascopy rating! I hope at last their rating will sort the actual quality of articles posted this month.

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14/35
Ranking
The Top 3 Currency Trends in 2013 - Part 1 This is a 3 part series of the Top 3 Currency Trends expected to persist in 2013. Each part will be published on a weekly basis. 1. Yen weakness The new Japanese government led by Shinzo Abe has been pressuring the Bank of Japan into implementing further easing of monetary policy. The Yen has weakened considerably on Abe's pledges for more monetary and fiscal stimulus. Since the middle of November the Yen has fallen over 9% against the dollar. See the chart below. The USD/JPY traded at 81.40 on November 20. The blue line is the 20 day Simple Moving Average, the red line is the 50 day SMA. The pair closed at 90.07 on Friday. The Japanese currency performed even worse against the Euro. The Yen lost close to 15% against the Euro since November 20, or expressed in pips – 1555 pips. Look at the chart below. The Japanese Government and the Bank of Japan will issue a joint statement next week On January 15 the Japanese prime minister said that the BOJ should implement an inflation target of 2% per year. Just yesterday on Sunday, January 20, the Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari said that the government and the BOJ were g…
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SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 24 Jan.

Yen weakness will be the major trend of this decade, it's not just the inflation target or easing measures, Japan has signficant structural problems and there's simply no easy way out for them :)

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22/35
Ranking
Role of Central Banks in Currency rates This article is to shed a few things about the roles of various central banks in controlling currency rates. If we go deeper in understanding the working compulsions of CBs, it will be amazing that every other Bank is using different tools for the same purpose. The main role of Central Bank of the country is to control monetary policy and regulate Banks and other financial institutions as well as to keep the currency rates stable. China doesn’t float free float currency, namely Yuan or Renminbi . Daily before market opens, PBOC ( Peoples Bank of China ) fixes the Rate to USD in line with International market conditions with a price band fluctuation control of 1% per day, on both sides. If letting their own, CNY into free float, it will appreciate minimum 15-20% at once, due to economic fundamental comparison between China and US. China’s GDP growth is around 9% where US is hobbling around 3%. Overnight all the exporters will sign and being one of the top economy in the world, it will lead to chaos in local market and may even lead to a stage like Japan, which is struggling to beat the appreciation of Yen. As all the readers are clos…
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Nicco avatar
Nicco 17 Jan.

After reading your article It would be interesting to discuss the role of the market in currencies rates and, especially about who is the price maker finally: the Central Banks OR the Market, the Central Bank AND the Market, ONLY Central Banks, ONLY the Market...???

sengeevenindia avatar

yes! That is the big question! today the biggest winner and who have very broad smile is SNB! They bought billions of Euros to defend the EUR/CHF floor at 1.2. During this period and even after EUR/CHF hitting 1.25, there are some in the market , expecting and fuelling that SNB should lift the floor to 1.25 or even to 1.3. But that is far fetched in my opinion. This climb will help SNB to relax a bit and they would never test the market with higher floor as that will be that much difficult to defend the higher floor!

sengeevenindia avatar

Moving to BOJ, already Koichi Hamada, a special economic adviser to Abe has stated that YEN at 95-100 is OK and only problematic if it reaches to 110. Already some eyes are brewing with the sudden slump of the YEN. Especially South Korea and Russia in G20 have started rising voices of unavoidable currency war in 2013. Even US exporters started urging Obama to check YEN's fall as it will be detrimental to their business. So Satisfying one and all in the market as well as to look after the Own Economy, Every other Central Banks need to devise different tools to combat same problem!

ante777 avatar
ante777 21 Jan.

Today important news coming from BOJ. Will see. Good article.

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 29 Jan.

I wouldn't really agree that the strong CHF has ruined Switzerland, like the Yen did to Japan. Japan has had roughly 20 years of slow growth, or even recession with deflation, but Switzerland has been doing great, with only a couple of bad years in that time :) Hope to read your next article on the subejct. BTW, this is fresh news, the RBI has cut interest rates about an hour ago!

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