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15/70
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At about 08.00 GMT, Saturday the 9th of January 2016, when I was reading one of the article posted here. I discovered once again how, many traders are so obsessed with creating strategies that they presume will make them profits in the market accurately and consistently.
Towards the end of the reading, these where the authors own words, may I ask permission to quote it “This whole process taught me the importance of considering large time frames during my trading analysis, and also the fact that automated strategies will never to totally reliable because they lack the human intellect to consider real-time fundamental changes in the market”.
This trader is not only correct, but did demonstrate from the statement above that she understands market price dynamics.
INTRODUCTION
Granted, every forex trader wants to make profit. The old trader feels very badly when he sees he still get trade losses and the newbie trader becomes even more nervous and don’t want to get losses. In this article I want to remind the older trader and show the newbie traders what works, don’t quote me wrong, for some it works for them – understand my personal trading secrets am about to reveal for the first time
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Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 19 Jan.

good

Natalia_Kisenko avatar

great article!

Olkiss70 avatar
Olkiss70 31 Jan.

useful work

BeautybyLesya avatar

good article!

Skif avatar
Skif 11 Feb.

цікава думка щодо торгівлі !

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27/51
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I got the idea for this article in another one from this month. In it, a thorough analysis of EURUSD is given and as interesting as it is, only one question springs to mind; long or short? From a specific chart made up of thousands or even millions of ticks and from fundamentals if you look at them, you want to pull out only this idea, should I buy or should I sell. Similarly, when we look at a picture or listen to a song, our brain processes an enormous amount of data and concatenates it into a single idea that summarizes the entire thing and it does so very efficiently. So let’s look at how the brain functions and see if we can’t build an automated strategy that works a little bit like it. The idea is to simplify charts in a pyramidal manner. Our brains do this for everything. For example, this article is made up of letters that make up words and that in turn form sentences, paragraphs and finally the entire article which is a single idea in our brain. you can do this for everything because that's how our brain functions. So what are weekly charts made up of? They are made up of ticks that together make minutes, hours and days, until the full chart for the past week. That’s logi…
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doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 19 Feb.

I have already tried to replace time frames and range bars charts even with ticks, but there is a maximum of 100 ticks that cannot be correlated with a TF more than 5 minutes. The simple ticks chart is much more reliable for entries and exits. As for the long or short decision, I consider that in any time given the are a few scenarios that have a higher or lower probability of happening. I don't think that trading is as simple as just going Long or Short. That would be just gambling as a retail trader lacks the most important part of trading... Information

olga avatar
olga 19 Feb.

Thanks for the comment. I want to emphasize that allthough your article and the reply by Likerty inspired me to implement a certain tactic, In no way do I mean to critisize your article.

I'd love for you to extend on the beginning of your comment, too little space here...

Now what I actualy say is: given the information, in order to make profit, we need to predict the evolution of the market. then, profit can only go through going long, short or not at all, the only three actions available.

I apologize for the missing picture that summarizes the tactic, I hope it will come on at some point.

kelvindfxguru avatar

nice one, although the tactic picture is not shown.

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11/30
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If you’ve already tried designing your strategy you’ll have noticed a small check-box in the historical tester of the jforex platform named optimization. You can find a little bit about this option on the dukascopy official forums but what is optimization exactly and how does it work? If I optimize my strategy will it necessarily work better in the future? These are some questions I want to tackle in this short article because optimization can improve a strategy or render it worthless while falsely making it look good on back-tests. Over-Learning Over-learning is the enemy of optimization and happens very easily when optimizing a strategy. An over-learned strategy will have a magnificent back-test but will be worthless in the future. Optimizing a strategy means tweaking its parameters to obtain better results. Especially when a strategy has many such parameters, it is very easy to optimize it on any period in time, even very long. Why is that? It’s because the strategy learns the time period by heart. It can tell when an investment is going to be juicy because it has seen it before! This is called over-learning because your strategy adapts to the time-period it’s optimized on too w…
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SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 16 Nov.

Interesting article on optimization, and it is good that you use at least 200 trades for statistical purposes. Many traders make assumptions and decisions based on very little data, sometimes less than 20 trades.

fxigor avatar
fxigor 20 Nov.

Hi, where I can read more about two ratios: the ratio of profits over drawdowns and the ratio of mean profit per trade over the standard deviation?

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 25 Nov.

Good article, I only suggest a 300 trades backtest and statistical data for a better accurancy. of the results

olga avatar
olga 1 Dec.

Sorry for not answering earlier fxigor, I lacked the points to post or send you a message.
This link is an article on the sharpe ratio but you may also read about it on Wikipedia:

http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?Sharpe-Ning-Up-Your-Strategies&action=read&id=29

And don’t forget to read SpecialFX’s article for a bunch more optimization functionshere:

http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?Applying-Simple-Mathematics-To-Evaluate&action=read&id=1082

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2/30
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What is the main function of Dukascopy community? I think the answer is obvious to everyone, exchange ideas so that we can all improve the way we experience the forex market every day... So taking this maximum and analyzing some articles where more experienced traders share their trading strategies is easy to realize that the most profitable strategies work in larger timeframes. It is clear that many of the strategies presented by community members can work well if they are automated, but given my experience when developing an automatic strategy, the simpler the better. After analyzing some of the articles posted here in the community about strategies used by some members, there was one that jumped me in sight, not only for its potential, but also for its simplicity, just easier to automate. The strategy I am talking about is that one presented by Bluedragon in his September article: Looking for Miraculous Strategies !?!This strategy is a cross system with applications in various markets such as stock market and indices. Although, is a counter trend strategy that has consistent results, because nothing goes up or down so indefinite ...Sure automate a strategy to make it profitable …
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LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 21 Nov.

@fxigor - until now the average stop loss/profit ratio is 100% win, because as you can read in the article the strategy does not use SL...

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 22 Nov.

I left pass some trades, but see here the trade open today on Daily Pivot : http://screencast.com/t/KX4Kas9xkA8

doctortyby avatar
doctortyby 25 Nov.

Pivot points are an important part of my strategies. It is very nice of you to contribue to the Dukascopy Community with this strategy based on Bluedragon's strategy. Nice collaboration. Don't you consider a disadvantage the fact that the Daily Pivots are calculated on the GMT based TF, I would rather have them calculated on 17:00 NY time

LinnuxFX avatar
LinnuxFX 26 Nov.

@doctotyby - At the moment the best results are in GMT based TF. I developed the EA in MT4 and it is running in 2 different brokers with different time zone, they are profitable too but trades take more time to close.

Santificado avatar

Olá Linnux FX, muito prazer, como posso obter mais informações sobre esta estratégia na plataforma da Dukascopy JForex, a respeito de seu rendimento em uma operação real.
Grande abraço,

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3/43
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You've swam through the valley of darkness swerving from
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you from the falsehoods spread by bucketeers. Once you have been
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opportunities offered to you by Dukascopy.    
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Apprentice traders often think that they can get rich
without risk, skill, investment, effort or time. A misconception
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incomes. Forex is extremely challenging, stressful, time consuming
and risky. There is a fine line between trading and gambling,
establish which side you want to be on. If you want to be a trader
then you have a steep learning curve ahead o…
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OneGoodTrade avatar

Definitely you have to make a new article "Forex myths and mistakes - Advanced Guide. "

yovan0625 avatar
yovan0625 28 July

congratulations on your article I learned a lot about it and thanks for the message on my blog.
greetings from Colombia

madihazulfiqar avatar

very good article keep it up+100 for this.

SHARKY12 avatar
SHARKY12 3 Aug.

nice article

projectx44 avatar

Forex community learned something from it......http://www.fxcommunity.com

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5/94
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I always wanted to share my knowledge about robots or automated strategies, I will write about these in this article. Probably experienced traders already know this, but newbies very often try to find “Holy Grail”. They want to earn (or maybe just get) money just by doing nothing. There are lots of “Perfect Forex Money Machines” sold for $100 or less in the internet. So why not pay $50, setup a robot, deposit $200, sit back and wait how this initial deposit becomes a thousand, ten thousands, hundred thousands and at last one million dollars. Well, it would be a great thing if it would be possible. I do not state that there are no profitable trading robots, but in most cases they do not earn these high percentages of profits. As I mentioned in my previous articles – no magic in Forex. And it doesn't matter if a human or machine is trading. During my involvement in Forex I have tested over 100 commercial different robots with different settings. I was able to find and test (or not test) these kinds of robots: Martingale. It's casino type robot, which adds to a losing position. Usually they do use some techniques to enter and exit a trade. Some even manages trades. But in my opin…
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MasterFreak avatar

Very Hot topic you have....I am really thinking of programming a robot someday.. Nice Article keep up the good work.. +1 for you ^^

Mrmagus avatar
Mrmagus 24 Sep.

+1

jonas avatar
jonas 24 Sep.

Robots are the first thing that newbie meets in Forex. I think we shouldn't put a lot of expectations in automated strategies. Human being is still the best.

jurga1s avatar
jurga1s 30 Sep.

This article is worth staying in the first place. Hope you hold it.

Arnas_IT avatar
Arnas_IT 30 Sep.

even though I personally don't use robots and not planing to do it in the near future it was very interesting article to read, keep working and +1

orto leave comments
40/73
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Hi Guys,That's my top10 and my 2 cents 1) Thinking that the 1million dollar strategy you just developed is a 1 million dollar strategyIf that was the case i would be billionaire by now ,-) While assessing a strategy efficiency you need to take in consideration:The time frame of your back testing, anything less than one year is not going to give you any kind of indication on how good is your strategyThe number of trades, if your strategy traded only 100 trades during the past year well your sample is just too small and you cant really draw any conclusion unless you got 80% winning trades. The Equity at risk, making a million buck with an equity risk of 20% is fairly easy.2) Not taking in consideration the spreadThe more it cost to trade a pair the wider your stop loss needs to be, if the spread is 4 pips, a stop loss of 20 is a guarantee for failure. The cost of trading should be maximum of 10%, for instance if the spread on EUR/USD is 1 then your stop loss needs to be 10 pips minimum.3) Not taking in consideration the trading hoursFor instance a cross over at peak hours(8 AM EST) is a lot more meaningful than a crossover at 6PM EST. 4) Thinking that an increase of volume always me…
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ritesh avatar
ritesh 26 Aug.

+1 :)

pipscity avatar
pipscity 26 Aug.

thanks ritesh will check your article,!

MobNaga avatar
MobNaga 27 Aug.

oops,no graphical presentation.+1

ritesh avatar
ritesh 28 Aug.

check out my articles too at http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?action=blog&user=ritesh

futures avatar
futures 29 Aug.

interesting article +1

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