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AUD/USD Forecast and Effects of Dollar Fluctuations
AUD/USD Forecast: May 2018
Tuesday, 1 May 2018 6:08
The Australian dollar has broken down during the last couple of weeks of April, slicing through major uptrend line that goes back to late 2015. This is a very negative sign, and even though we did bounce a bit towards the end of the month, I think we will probably see resistance near the uptrend line once we approach it again. If we stay below the uptrend line, I suspect that we will then eventually go to the 0.75 handle, and then break down below there to go to the 0.7250 level. Pay attention to the yields in the United States, because if they do rise that will send this market much lower. There is a lot of noise just below though, so I think that even if we break down it will probably be more of a grind than anything else.The alternate scenario of course is that we break above the 0.77 handle, and that should send this market much higher, perhaps towards the 0.80 level. That would also prove the market breaking through the uptrend line as a “false breakdown”, which of course is something that shows just how bullish the market is. Currently, I think that we have a lot of volati…
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AngleRMS avatar
AngleRMS 21 June


bhavinvanza avatar

Thanks angle

Aaamira avatar
Aaamira 21 June

good one!

JaiBabaKi avatar
JaiBabaKi 22 June

cool article!

AlisaVictoria1881 avatar

Good article!

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Dear Valuable Reader,
Have you ever wondered which currencies receive the most trading action? The data for the following chart comes from a survey done every three years by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).
Note that trading volume adds up to 200%, because each currency trade has a pairing.
The Chinese Yuan is now the 8th most traded currency in the world, for a total share of 4.0%.
That means its share has doubled since the 2013 BIS report:
But what is bitcoin’s trading volume like, relative to other currencies?
Bitcoin: In the last 30 days, about $3 billion of bitcoin has been traded, which averages out to $100 million per day.

Other Currencies:
The total amount of forex transactions per day is $5.1 trillion. The estimated daily turnover of just the Chinese yuan is $202 billion per day.
That means that the yuan has approximately 2,000x the volume traded of bitcoin, while total forex is 51,000x the size. In other words, bitcoin has a way to go to become one of the world’s most traded currencies.
Almost the traders in the world are trading now EUR/USD , which came in the 1st rank in 2016 for the most traded pair, by which reflects that it is the most volume of money fl…
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Illya avatar
Illya 31 Mar.


Vlad73 avatar
Vlad73 31 Mar.

good job

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 31 Mar.

Well written!

Verona888 avatar
Verona888 31 Mar.

Useful information!

SikmaN avatar
SikmaN 31 Mar.


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INDICATORS: Parabolic Sar, Money Flow Index, Linear Regression Slope
The AUD/CAD is in slightly bullish tendency after a rebounce at the channel resistance as indicated in fig 1. The pair pattern suggests a possible pattern around the support line. The Linear Regression Slope around 0.003 can be analyzed as slightly bearish tendency.The MFI and the Parabolic Sar can suggest the validity of the figure pattern and the indecision of the market. The chart analysis suggest the possibility of a slightly bearish retracement around the support line. (Fig 2).
A bearish crossing at 0.9702 can validate a significant bearish domination. The analysis suggests the possibility to open a sell position at 1.03687 with TP at 1.002 and SL at 1.077 .
FIGURE 1 shows the trendlines
INDICATORS: Parabolic Sar, Money Flow Index, Linear Regression Slope
The AUD/CHF currency pair pattern is in a slighty bullish trend within a channel but it could be possible that it can be dominated by a trendless zone considering the two keys level pri…
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brilliant avatar
brilliant 25 Jan.

good effort

Yuliya_N avatar
Yuliya_N 28 Jan.

well done

someday777777 avatar

good article

ghfran avatar
ghfran 2 Feb.

nice article ^^

Beto avatar
Beto 12 Feb.

good technical analysis of Aussie.

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: Weekly
INDICATORS: Parabolic Sar, Money Flow Index, Linear Regression Slope
The AUD/CAD is in a slightly bullish-trendless tendency after a rebounce at the support line in a channel formation as indicated in fig 1. The pair pattern suggests a possible bounce around the support line. The Linear Regression Slope around 0.002 can be analyzed as slightly bullish tendency.The MFI and the Parabolic Sar can suggest the validity of the figure pattern and the indecision of the market. The chart analysis suggest the possibility of a slightly bearish retracement trend with the 1.03 as resistance area. (Fig 2)
A bearish crossing at 0.97 can validate a significant bearish domination. The analysis suggests the possibility to open a buy position at 1.01 with TP at 1.03 and SL at 0.97 . It can be evaluated a forecast level price at 1.03183.
FIGURE 1 shows the trendlines
FIGURE 2 indicates the forecasting pattern

INDICATORS: Parabolic Sar, Money Flow Index, Linear Regression Slope
The AUD/CHF currency pair patt…
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priceaction113 avatar

A very good and in depth Tech info regarding AUD thank you for sharing

AforAyushs avatar

well written...

TInna avatar
TInna 13 Nov.

Good one!

brilliant avatar
brilliant 24 Nov.

nice effort thank you

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Forex Market Overview:
With the NFP report many think that september interest rate hike is out of the picture, but there appears to be slightest of chance that FED may increase interest rates this month. Rosenberg a top FED official said that "risks to the forecast are becoming increasingly two-sided". "That means that while a slowdown overseas remains a concern, the U.S. economy has proven resilient and could even overheat if Fed policy remains unchanged for too much longer." He also stated that the "modest" wage pressures so far this year mean the labor market is tightening and could well exceed "full employment" next year. For the rest of this year, U.S. GDP growth will likely rebound and run above a 2-percent rate over the next two quarters.
On the other hand, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said, “There doesn’t appear to be a huge urgency to do anything,” implying that the problems facing the economy cannot be solved by monetary policy so there is no pressing need for action from the central bank. He also pointed out that he wanted to see “more movement” in core inflation, which he said was “stuck” at a 1.6% annual rate.
Following the comments, the US markets plunged lower…
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brilliant avatar
brilliant 20 Sep.

very good

FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 20 Sep.

Nicely written!

fxsurprise8 avatar

interesting view

Illya avatar
Illya 7 Oct.

I like it!

Uladzimir avatar
Uladzimir 11 Oct.

интересная информация

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INDICATORS: Parabolic Sar, Money Flow Index, Linear Regression Slope




The AUD/CAD is in a slightly bullish tone after a rebounce at the support zone in 0.9310 with the possibility of a triangle formation as indicated in fig 2 . The pair pattern suggests a possible retracement around the resistance line at 0.9987. The Linear Regression Slope around 0.002 can be analyzed as slightly bullish tendency.The MFI and the Parabolic Sar can suggest the validity of the figure pattern and the indecision of the market. The chart analysis suggest the possibility of a slightly bullishobjective around the 0.9998 area. ( Fig 2)
A bearish crossing at 0.9310 can validate a significant bearish domination. The analysis suggests the possibility to open a buy limit position at 0.9729 with SL at 0.9310 and TP at 0.9987.

FIGURE 1 shows the triangle formation

FIGURE 2 indicates the forecasting pattern


INDICATORS: Parabolic Sar, Money Flow Index, Linear Regression Slope

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brilliant avatar

thank you friend

rupesh1984 avatar

good,have to see what outcome of RBA rate :)

rashadali avatar

nice work

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1. Introduction.
Le présent article propose une étude prospective d'évolution à moyen terme du dollar australien au travers de trois paires de devises : AUD/USD, EUR/AUD et AUD/JPY. Nous passerons en revue, dans un premier temps, l'état de l'économie australienne, ses forces et ses faiblesses et terminerons par une analyse graphique des paires de devises dont mention ci-avant.

2. Aspect économique

L’économie australienne a connu une croissance de 3,5% l'an tout au long de ces vingt dernières années conjuguée à une inflation contrôlée. Le taux de chômage reste encore aujourd'hui très bas, à moins de 6%.
La dette publique reste modéré, à moins de 30 % du produit intérieur brut. A titre comparatif, la dette publique du Japon s'élève à 250% de son PIB, celle des États-Unis a atteint 105% et pour la zone Euro, 86% de son PIB. La croissance économique que l'Australie a connu, s'explique avant tout par la forte demande de la Chine en matières premières. Certes, le secteur des services génère à lui seul 80% du PIB australien contre 10% pour les matières premières mais ce secteur a soutenu toute l'économie par les profits et investissements qu'il a généré dans tous les autres secteurs d…
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very good Article

Milian avatar
Milian 27 May

interesting article!)

williamb avatar
williamb 28 May

detailed and accurate

Faster avatar
Faster 29 May


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PipPoint 3 June


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The understanding of fundamental and technical factors affecting a currency pair will be critical for the success of any trader. Whilst fundamental analysis will give the general direction of the trend in the medium to long term, the technical analysis will give the trader indications and signals of entry and exit.
This article takes a look at some of the fundamental factors from Australia affecting the Australian dollar. Technical analysis of the AUDUSD is also performed.
Monetary policy
  • Australia.
In the monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the 7th of July 2015, the central bank left the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 2%. Fig 1 below shows the interest rates in Australia.
Fig 1: Australia Interest Rates
In the statement, the policymakers were of the view that the monetary policy needed to be accommodative since the economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity. To this end the record lows interest rates will likely remain in place.
  • USA
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to start increasing its policy rate later this year, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease policy. Thoug…
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lelipuzik avatar
lelipuzik 28 Aug.

i like it!)

Yulia_Krasitskaya avatar

good job, respect)

davidrubin avatar
davidrubin 28 Aug.

very useful

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 30 Aug.

great !!!!)))

anna_n avatar
anna_n 31 Aug.

you are great guru!

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In my previous article, I outlined the key themes overriding the FX markets for the beginning and covered a few currencies. In this piece I will look at the remaining currencies.
AUD outlook
The Aussie is possibly one of the most interesting currencies to watch throughout 2015. With so much going on, the AUD stands to have quite a volatile year.
Many of the key drivers of the AUD are expected to have sizeable shifts next year such as US interest rates, or Chinese growth and given so many variables it will be very difficult to have a prediction for the AUDUSD in 1 year time.
Negative factors for the year ahead are as such. Looking at the 5 year real yield, we can see a strong and tight fit to the AUDUSD
With higher US rates, and higher market risks (and volatility), the AUD's yield pick-up becomes less and less attractive.
Furthermore, Weak Chinese demand has led to far far lower demand in the construction sector in the domestic economy. This can be clearly reflected in the decline in Iron ore prices (below) which are down some 40% in 2014 and has a less than promising outlook for 2015.
However it's not all bad for the Aussie. Lets consider for a minute we are a large (non-US) real …
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foreignexchange avatar

Good Job

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Archimedes once said:
"Give me a lever strong, enough, and a prop strong enough, and I can singlehandedly move the world"

"Give me a maximum or a minimum of the year's quarter, and I will tell where the price will go :>"

The method, I'm going to talk here about, is a Determination of a Long-term Trend.
In my opinion, prior to a good move in one direction, the market is getting ready for 3-15 months. Of course 15 months, is too much, that's why in this article, I will describe a 3 months approach.
"Determination of a Long-term Trend"

Before the beginning, I would like to thank a Dukascopy company, for the given ability of quarter time frame charts drawing.
The main points:
  1. We're looking for a maximum and minimum levels of previous quarter.
  2. After, the minimum and maximum has been formed, the price is not testing the level before a breakdown.
  3. Raising power of trend, after the level is broken.

Picture 2 (T/F 1Month):
As you can see on picture 2, the signal for a long-term trend determination has been formed in may 2014.
For a signal confirmation we have had to wait for a quarter closure.
Picture 3:
As you can see, the Quarter 4 of 2012 and the Quarter 2 of 2014 ar…
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Skif avatar
Skif 6 Oct.

Good job !

Elani avatar
Elani 8 Oct.

Very detailed description of the method! Well-done!

peachynicnic avatar

Thanks for your article. It is very informative with detail explanation and chart! It is true that a prudent trader should adopt any trading strategy to predict future price movement in order to guarantee a long term profit. Good job well done.

VictoriaVika avatar

Thanks for your article, there is many useful information, really good strategy and detail explanation. Well done! Go ahead!

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Fx Swap and Forward Market
As we all know, our positions in the FX market are liable to either a credit or a debit at the end of each trading day. Known primarily as Carry, swap or rollover the charge made to the trading account is dependent on interest rates. Before we go further, we need to understand what an FX swap is, It is the buying/selling of a spot currency pair, while simultaneously selling/buying a forward contract of the currency pair of the same value.
The FX swap market is the biggest single market in the world, taking up about 40% of the FX markets, which is by far the largest in the world by asset class
To understand the idea here, we need to know about interest rate parity, while there is a pretty basic formula, the idea is as follows. If one country has a higher interest rate than the other country in the trade, then it is feasible to suggest that I could buy the higher yielding currency by selling the lower yield one and park it in risk free deposits and receive a return, this is the entire concept of the carry trade.
However, to prevent arbitrage, buying a currency pair in the future must discount this.
As we can see above, this is the forward curve for the AUDU…
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Daytrader21 avatar

Thanks again for reinforcing some basic concept that I almost forgot. Your article are always very informative. keep up the good work

Airmike avatar
Airmike 21 Mar.

very nice article. best of the bests :)

mimuspolyglottos avatar

Another financial HAIKU from Adrian. Short, deep, impressive. Thank You very much. Why are British so good in teaching high finance but are not good in teaching football? :(    I do not know about today but thirty-twenty years ago some theories  have considered  the forward rate as the best  forecaster of currency's rate in the  future. May I consider my portfolio of currencies with positive swap points and with future rate hike expectations on more than half of them as ALPHA trade ( trying to create some analogue to stocks)? Best Regards.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 24 Mar.

Hehe Mimus - thanks for the kind words. Interesting you mention that last point... Normally people consider FX markets Zero-sum, and while the transactions are. Every trade (as highlighted above is exposed to interest rates) as such, they are receiving cash flow, so over time FX strategies (such as G10 carry trades) have outperformed a 0% return for all parties, which is an odd thing to think about but its true! However most don't consider generating alpha as an FX tactic, but its perfectly valid imo and works percectly.P.s. Have you not seen Southamptons academy? really good at training.

Maria_r avatar
Maria_r 26 Mar.

large information flow

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Introduction:I intend to take a deep look into the long term outlook for the AUD, not just incorporating technical analysis, but looking into the fundamentals and key drivers from a multitude of asset classes to decide where we go from here. To start with, by long term I mean far more than a year, and am considering events going 3+ years into the future, and while I understand this may not teach you how to make 25 pips a day or something rather trivial like this, it will show you how I gain a bias to the long term direction of a currency. Even if one does not utilise some of these ideas to trade very long term, they can all be used intra-day and for swing trades so it is applicable to all in my opinion. Interest rate differentials:A key driver for any currency is the interest rate differential - this is why monetary policy statements from various central banks are so key and this is very much the case for the Aussie dollar. As we can see below, there is a strong relationship between the 2 Year yield spread, a broad look at the interest rate differential. Here we can split this chart into 4 distinct sections. The first being from 2000 through to 2003, this is where the Yield spread …
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apsu avatar
apsu 9 Sep.

interesting point of view! what program you used to make the graphics?

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 9 Sep.

@apsu, I use Thomson Reuters Eikon

Likerty avatar
Likerty 10 Sep.

well, its in the technical correction mode now anyway.:) 5 year time scale doesnt help much in everyday trading decisions isnt it?:) ANyway - interesting article to read!

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 14 Sep.

@likerty, depends what type of trader you are. For the scalper - of course they're not going to care. But a position trader for sure is going to care.

ilonalt avatar
ilonalt 27 Sep.

interesting article! good luck! I have some long trades of AUD and I'm still waiting to close :)

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SituationAs an Australian, I have benefitted from a stronger AUD in recent years. As I am always conscious about my "wealth" in a global context, I am constantly looking at the attractiveness of the AUD relative to other currency pairs and the consequent risks of waning strength. About a month ago, I noticed a significant divergence in bond yields as well as equity returns (total return basis) which led me to access the health of the Australian Dollar. Complication1. The Australian Dollar has historically been associated with risk and the stock markets have been strong locally (Australia) and globally prior to May 2013. 2. The Australian Dollar has been very resilient and hasn't traded below parity with the USD for nearly 2 years.Question1. Should I expect the Australian Dollar to fall below parity and should I trade a short position on the Australian Dollar? 2. If I do trade the short position, what should I set as an estimated target?Executive Summary:The AUD/USD seems poised to test the 0.9340 level after failing to retain the key support level at 1.0324. Using what I will call a "volatility-divergence-analysis" or "VDA" in short, I will share the thoughts that led to my AUD/USD…
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xtrader360 avatar
xtrader360 24 June

Nice article

deliriou5 avatar
deliriou5 25 June

Thanks geula4x, nilsaedagar and xtrader360! I am working on a strategy article that I can hopefully complete by this weekend.

Daytrader21 avatar

Nicely done and very well written. By the way have you took that short position. I've been written an article about aussie when it was trading around 1.0300 and I've said I'm expecting a break down until around 0.9600 and then rally back above parity. It seems the break out was more severe than I thought and we haven't seen any retracement so far. No I've changed my mind:)

alifari avatar
alifari 25 June

Interesting article +1

deliriou5 avatar
deliriou5 25 June

Thanks Daytrader21, yeah, I actually posted my actual trade on my live account above - exact size and risk management as well. I was trading pull-backs and whipsaws so I ended up gaining less than if I held the trade all the way. Thus is the life of trading. I had the capacity to do more but I was long GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD and short XAU/USD and XAG/USD at the same time so I didn't want to over-expose myself.

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ELLIOTT WAVE PERSPECTIVE EUR / AUD were moving in a bullish direction since mid-July 2012 and up until early February 2013. There is reason to be concerned because the area around 1.3190 seems to contain resistance, which recently put an end to the bullish trend. Where many indicators can be Incorrect, Elliott Wave offers a solution as I will demonstrate in this article. This article is not one of the longest of its kind but will include important aspects of Elliott Wave. Below is a three-day candle chart of the EUR / AUD with an analysis that follows. It is always important to take a look at the bigger picture before deciding which direction you want to place your positions, and this is true whether one uses Elliott Wave or not.As one can see above there was a nice five wave down move which ended near the area of 1.1600 and confirmed a bottom. None of the rules were broken as we had at least one extension and wave 4 did not overlap wave 2. After that the price interestingly reached all the way up to the region of 1.3190. The move from 1.1600 to 1.3190 did form a so called “zigzag pattern” which also is known as a simple correction. This move is also what is shown as wave 2 (white)…
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alifari avatar
alifari 28 Mar.

I do observe wave structure in my trading, so this was helpful +1

SpecialFX avatar
SpecialFX 29 Mar.

I'm with Efegen, I never quite understood EW, and in the few times I tried to use it (years ago) I made a complete mess :)) However, I know people who use EW very successfully, so I guess the problem is me. Good article!

drishti avatar
drishti 29 Mar.

Agree with SpecialFX, know basic principle but never able to find a pattern using wave analysis. But overall good article.

khalidamassi avatar

i like Elliot and like the work you have done ... thank you

Delossan avatar
Delossan 30 Mar.

Thaks for all comments. I hope that this will be a good help for everyone who wants to learn EWP.

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Introduction:The Australian Dollar is perhaps one the most popular pairs for traders, its nature is fairly simple and provides good opportunities for scalpers and swing traders alike. Crucially in this world with no yield, AUD can pocket you ~3% a year, great for some investors.Because of this yield, the AUD is very prone to changes in risk sentiment and therefore on an intra-day basis is highly correlated to US and European Stock indices. However, the most alarming thing about this pair is the lack of activity in recent weeks, especially since the start of October where the average Rate of Change has been under 1% per day. This compared with the same time last year where there were times of +2% per day.Long Term:As shown here, AUDUSD is at a crucial checkpoint, as in the next few days to weeks the Aussie will breakout and set the trend for the next 6 months or so. While technically the trendlines are neutral there is a bearish divergence suggesting there is a greater chance of a downside move. However this is entirely subjective to the moves that will be see is US equities. More so a member of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has said this;RBA John Edwards - " The currency is m…
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AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 17 Dec.

Price action is still in consolidation, the levels mentioned above are getting even more crucial, furthermore on a side note AUD CoT positioning is extremely long which means a sharp fall in risk can cause some heavy long covering and stop tripping.

AdrianWS avatar
AdrianWS 26 Dec.

AUD broke down lower - but has stalled at 50% fib level and has held 200MA this is likely to be the case until Next year. So 1.043 seems like a decent target as that's a monthly pivot and as such could be a good way to end December.

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