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13/26
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AUD/USD Forecast: May 2018
Tuesday, 1 May 2018 6:08
  • The Australian dollar has broken down during the last couple of weeks of April, slicing through major uptrend line that goes back to late 2015. This is a very negative sign, and even though we did bounce a bit towards the end of the month, I think we will probably see resistance near the uptrend line once we approach it again. If we stay below the uptrend line, I suspect that we will then eventually go to the 0.75 handle, and then break down below there to go to the 0.7250 level. Pay attention to the yields in the United States, because if they do rise that will send this market much lower. There is a lot of noise just below though, so I think that even if we break down it will probably be more of a grind than anything else.
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earspower avatar
earspower 21 June

Well done. I don't take inter-market into consideration, because the company managers are sometimes correct and sometimes wrong about the prospect exchange rates.

bhavinvanza avatar

THANKS MY DEAR FRIEND

AlisaVictoria1881 avatar

Good article!

syam avatar
syam 23 June

Interesting article!

hrustiashka avatar

good article)

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3/54
Ranking
В своей предыдущей статье я предложил вариант торговой стратегии на базе индикатора Time Segmented Volume и простой средней кривой Simple Moving Average. Детально о ней вы можете прочитать здесь. В течение второй половины месяца, с 16 по 31 августа 2017 года, я провел ее тестирование на шести валютных парах: AUD/USD; EUR/USD; GBP/USD; USD/CAD; USD/JPY; USD/JPY. Все сигналы на открытие ордеров и результаты торгов я постил в своем блоге, где вы их можете просмотреть. Сейчас пришло время анализа результатов.
1. Настройки стратегии при тестировании
Для всех валютных пар использовался часовой таймфрейм. Stop Loss выставлялся под минимумом или над максимумом текущей свечи, или у ближайшего ключевого уровня, не снимался и не переносился. Take Profit выставлялся из расчета 2/1 к Stop Loss. Ручное закрытие ордеров проводилось только в случае появления сигнала на вход в противоположном направлении и в конце торговой недели.
2. Результаты в разрезе валютных пар
2.1. Пара: AUD/USD

Резюме: Торговых возможностей много (всего 8 ордеров, из них прибыльных 3), но неравномерно по времени. Много сигналов на вход в противоположном направлении. Доходность околонулевая (+7 пунктов), риски высокие.
2
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BIGBO avatar
BIGBO 29 Sep.

Thank you all for your support!

Wovch avatar
Wovch 4 Oct.

good

Alexander22 avatar

well done

Klaudia25 avatar
Klaudia25 13 Oct.

great article

klintons avatar
klintons 13 Feb.

Good Job

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35/58
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Before the RBA Rate Statement

The Friday before the RBA was a tough day for fundamental analyst traders who solely based their trading on the NFP report that came in at 151K, 21K below expectation. The AUD/USD was only bullish in the first five minutes and then turned around to the downside to the 0.74500 psychological support level maintained earlier in the European Session.
Chart 1: AUD/USD 5MIN
Some of the explanations of the behavior of the USD included;
  • The huge impact from the Jackson Hole Symposium that provided a huge boost to the dollar
  • The new home sales and durable goods report that beat their expectation also provided a boost to the USD though to a less extent
  • Finally, Janet Yellen’s expectations of the rate hike based on the speech delivered Jackson Hole were her conclusion about the US economy was
    the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.

In Australia, we saw the AUD show strength against the USD with the start Asian session on Tuesday ahead of the RBA. All traders seemed confident that the rate would be maintained since it had been cut by RBA in the month earlier. Furthermore, the reports of the private capital expenditure…
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FXRabbit avatar
FXRabbit 15 Sep.

Good article!

GUANYINDIZI avatar

i can't see the charts ...??

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4/47
Ranking
Traders spend a lot of time and energy trying to find the Perfect System. They argue that they will struck it rich once they find THE SYSTEM or if they’re discretionary, once they refine their trading enough. It has long been my assertion that risk control and diversification are much more important then the trading system itself.
I've argued that you don't have to be a genius trader in order to make money in the markets. In fact you can make money with remarkably simple trading systems. In this article we'll go over one system that has only 1 entry/exit trading rule. Yes you read that right, ONE. Here's a little preview of the results for this system.
Toward the end of the article I present a four-year backtest of this system on the four most liquid currency pairs EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. Here is the simplest system on this entire website.
Ten-Month Moving Average System
There is only 1 entry/exit rule. If price closes above the 10-month simple moving average, you buy. If price falls below the 10-month moving average, you sell. This is a Stop and Reverse System (SAR). Once your long gets the exit signal (price below 10 SMA) you close the position and initiate a n…
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faisal777 avatar
faisal777 25 Aug.

good work

bibo avatar
bibo 5 Sep.

thanks for sharing with us

angelina_may avatar

interesting

TInna avatar
TInna 8 Sep.

great article! keep it up)

rashadali avatar

very good article )

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7/59
Ranking
Traders often say ‘’follow the smart money’’ or follow the big money. But how are you supposed to do that? The closest we have to knowing what the ‘’Smart Money is doing in forex is the COT report. But that report comes out late on Friday and only includes the positioning as of Wednesday. So by the time we get to trade on this information on Monday, we’re already five days late. Plus, the COT report shows positioning in the futures currency markets, not spot FX. No doubt there’s a lot of overlap and the same players are probably trading both markets but a better indicator would be forex positioning.
Bet Against the Dumb Money
The ‘’Smart Money’’ can be in the markets for various reasons other than taking a directional bet. These include hedging by large multinationals, arbitrage or just old-fashioned market making by banks and high frequency firms. In my experience a better course of action is to bet against the ‘’Dumb Money’’ instead.
Who is the ‘’Dumb Money’’ in the forex market? In large part, retail traders are the proverbial ‘’Dumb Money’’. Before we go on, let’s see why betting against retail forex traders is a good strategy.
Cut Profits, Let Your Losers Run
A large US r…
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PipPoint avatar
PipPoint 3 June

yes very useful information

romakoksa avatar

interesting article!)

romakoksa avatar

а well done

iiivb avatar
iiivb 17 June

i am not that prone into the use of sentiment index for my trading but indeed was useful and insightful your explaination! thanks for the time and effort! wish u best of lucks!

mcquak avatar
mcquak 28 Sep.

If only I was reading it at contest time. You would definitely had my like. Strategy "going against crowd" has got rationale behind it, and with some additional filter added it can work. Good article.

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3/59
Ranking
1. Introduction.
Le présent article propose une étude prospective d'évolution à moyen terme du dollar australien au travers de trois paires de devises : AUD/USD, EUR/AUD et AUD/JPY. Nous passerons en revue, dans un premier temps, l'état de l'économie australienne, ses forces et ses faiblesses et terminerons par une analyse graphique des paires de devises dont mention ci-avant.


2. Aspect économique
.

L’économie australienne a connu une croissance de 3,5% l'an tout au long de ces vingt dernières années conjuguée à une inflation contrôlée. Le taux de chômage reste encore aujourd'hui très bas, à moins de 6%.
La dette publique reste modéré, à moins de 30 % du produit intérieur brut. A titre comparatif, la dette publique du Japon s'élève à 250% de son PIB, celle des États-Unis a atteint 105% et pour la zone Euro, 86% de son PIB. La croissance économique que l'Australie a connu, s'explique avant tout par la forte demande de la Chine en matières premières. Certes, le secteur des services génère à lui seul 80% du PIB australien contre 10% pour les matières premières mais ce secteur a soutenu toute l'économie par les profits et investissements qu'il a généré dans tous les autres secteurs d…
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MR_KHALEDBADRY avatar

very good Article

Milian avatar
Milian 27 May

interesting article!)

williamb avatar
williamb 28 May

detailed and accurate

Faster avatar
Faster 29 May

Good

PipPoint avatar
PipPoint 3 June

nice

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4/66
Ranking
It’s been a tough few months for currency traders. Choppy markets haven’t produced any major trends. This got me thinking into ways to make money when the market is not moving. This is the first installment of my multi-part series on trading for income.
What is Trading for Income?
Trading for income covers a broad range of ways to make money regardless of market conditions. Trend following excels during high volatility. Mean reversion strategies do better during ranges. Trading for income is supposed to bridge that gap and offer some ‘’stable’’ income. Please keep in mind that there is no free lunch in the markets. Just like with the other two strategies, trading for income has some serious drawbacks as well. More on this later in this article.
The Carry Trade
The carry trade was a very popular method of trading before the 2008 Financial Crisis. A "Carry Trade" is executed when you borrow a currency that has a low (or now negative) interest rate, like the Japanese Yen or the Euro. At the same time you buy a currency that has a relatively high interest rate. You make a profit of the interest rate differential between the two currencies, also called Carry or Rollover.
In a …
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rajib217 avatar
rajib217 12 Apr.

so nice

ClauTrade avatar
ClauTrade 18 Apr.

Good article... I like it! well done! :)

Kivetat avatar
Kivetat 19 Apr.

Good job)))

Natali_Niyazova avatar

great job

ALSALAMY avatar
ALSALAMY 27 July

nice

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13/66
Ranking
Introduction
I find it useful to look at the big picture from time to time. In technical analysis terms, that usually means inspection of weekly and/or monthly charts. However, I rarely get to see analysis of "ultra-high" timeframe charts, so I decided to make a couple of attempts of my own. Previously, I analysed long term charts of the Euro, the Yen, the Cable, the Swissie and the Loonie.
Today I'll have a look at yearly and quarterly Aussie charts that are covering the period from 1971 to 2015. While the yearly may be of some use for a quick overview of price action, the quarterly chart offers more detail and makes trends, ranges and patterns more clearly visible. I will be focusing on the latter for my analysis.
Yearly Chart
Quarterly Chart
The Peg
A keen observer would have noted something very unusual about price action in the first couple of years. Volatility jumps from near zero level in one quarter to the level of ten or twenty cents in the next quarter and vice versa, several times. That's something that just doesn't happen in liquid financial markets such as major currency pairs. Volatility may increase sharply when price breaks from a period of tigh…
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Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 25 Nov.

Good post!

Milian avatar
Milian 26 Nov.

good article))

fxsurprise8 avatar

agree longterm more losses seem likely

al_dcdemo avatar

fxsurprise8 Though the pair is holding up well in the face of all the headwinds. :)

al_dcdemo avatar

Thanks to all for your great comments!

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4/53
Ranking

Introduction

The understanding of fundamental and technical factors affecting a currency pair will be critical for the success of any trader. Whilst fundamental analysis will give the general direction of the trend in the medium to long term, the technical analysis will give the trader indications and signals of entry and exit.
This article takes a look at some of the fundamental factors from Australia affecting the Australian dollar. Technical analysis of the AUDUSD is also performed.
Monetary policy
  • Australia.
In the monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the 7th of July 2015, the central bank left the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 2%. Fig 1 below shows the interest rates in Australia.
Fig 1: Australia Interest Rates
In the statement, the policymakers were of the view that the monetary policy needed to be accommodative since the economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity. To this end the record lows interest rates will likely remain in place.
  • USA
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to start increasing its policy rate later this year, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease policy. Thoug…
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lelipuzik avatar
lelipuzik 28 Aug.

i like it!)

Yulia_Krasitskaya avatar

good job, respect)

davidrubin avatar
davidrubin 28 Aug.

very useful

Margoshka avatar
Margoshka 30 Aug.

great !!!!)))

anna_n avatar
anna_n 31 Aug.

you are great guru!

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12/29
Ranking
► Introduction
This article is a continuation to my previous article: "Finding Key Support and Resistance Areas". In this article I will demonstrate how to find key support and resistance areas quickly and easily. We will use the same method explained in the previous article. I have applied the method on all the Major Currencies: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. I hope this article will help us understand the method better and observe how it can be used in live market charts.
Although the method is very technical, it does require some practice. I suggest that you first read again the previous article. Then, open the daily charts of the Majors and try to find the key support and resistance areas in them by yourself. Finally, you can compare your areas of support and resistance with my suggestions in this article. I think that this is a nice way to practice the method and gain the needed experience.
In each currency pair I will introduce three charts. The first chart is the daily chart. It is zoomed out to show at least one year of recent price movements. The second chart includes green v-shape and red upside-down-v-shape markings. They represent key support a
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geula4x avatar
geula4x 18 Jan.

@ilonalt Thank you :-) Best of luck to you too, and happy trading :-)

WallStreetBlog avatar

Thank you very much!!!

geula4x avatar
geula4x 25 Jan.

@WallStreetBlog My pleasure! :-) Happy trading this coming week :-)

jezz avatar
jezz 26 Jan.

Well written, good examples with a good following text. Really nice!

geula4x avatar
geula4x 27 Jan.

@jezz Thank you for your kind words! :-) Happy trading and good luck :-)

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11/29
Ranking

This article is a continuation and a reproduce of my recent blog post series were I was trying to give my own view on the major currency pairs for this year but I never got the change to finish it, so I though it may be a good idea to write an article were to cover this subject. Keep in mind this is just my personal opinion and my own plan for this year, it may or may not work out, flexibility is key, because things can change very fist in today's market.
  • USD/JPY Outlook
I'm going to give out my Fx Market Outlook for this year and I'm going to start with my favorite currency pair: Japanese Yen. I want to take the time to go through all the major currency pairs and give my personal outlook for 2014.
We know that currently the YEN pairs is all about Abenomics market policies. The "Abenomics effect" have had a huge impact to revive Japan's economy, strengthening consumer consumer spending. Although many have doubted the market policies of Japan's new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are working very well: stock market is booming, real estate prices are rising, and retail sales are also rising. So far "Abenomics" has been a huge success, and this is very supportive for the current USD/JPY
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Schaolin avatar
Schaolin 22 Jan.

good job and good luck

Daytrader21 avatar

@Metal Mind thanks buddy I hope everything is good on your side.

Daytrader21 avatar

@Decebal & @Schaolin Thanks guys

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 1 Feb.

Really good article. I love the USD/JPY Fractal. It scares me a bit how I've been looking at the same pairs with almost the exact same analysis! The only difference in my analysis is that I'm looking at the GBP/CAD rather than the GBP/USD. Good Job on the article and best wishes on your trades for 2014

Daytrader21 avatar

@jignesh thanks man, The thing with having a long term view is to be very flexible as this days central banks around the world tend to change and adjust their market policy to the new the economic threats, see for example recent emerging market crisis and how central banks reacted.

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5/47
Ranking
FX markets are inherently news driven. There is definitely an abundance of different economic indicators which influence markets, as well as and more importantly, central banking activities such as:interest rate change – both expectation of change and real changequantitative easing programs – both current ones, expectation of start and finisheconomic outlook sentiment by central banksThese are designed to push the respective currency pair into one direction or the other (bullish or bearish movement). Besides central bank news which are mentioned above, there are many purely economic indicators (housing starts, unemployment, manufacturing indices, business sentiment indices etc.). Therefore, it is important to distinguish news which matter and those which matter less. Secondly, it is important to understand how to trade those news and the risks involved with such trades.In this article we will only look at USD crosses - that is, currency pairs against the US dollar. If you look at any economic calendar, there will be news coming out daily of various kinds - I suggest using www.forexfactory.com to sift those indicators, where US dollar related news are clearly marked in degree of imp…
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ilonalt avatar
ilonalt 19 July

good and very informative article, good luck, Vasyl

ivanbgd avatar
ivanbgd 20 July

good text

Nicco avatar
Nicco 26 July

Yes, I use news of http://www.forexfactory.com/, the best news presentations I think, but also from Dukascopy. Many times I think is better not to trade when there are important news. But the temptstion is huge! The desire to do something, especially something wrong or unwise is a great chalange for a trader investing small or moderate funds, amateur or professional! And in the market there are sharks or whales speculating the news induced sentiments...It's all relative...

Belikewater avatar

Good work Vassyl. COmment on my profile: http://www.dukascopy.com/tradercontest/?action=blog&trader=Belikewater

FlashTrade avatar

good article

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1/65
Ranking

Dear Traders and
Community Members,
             I
launched ECR JForex Strategy in OCTOBER ‘2011
strategy contest. It’s been over Three Months and its Demo Performance has been
very good in spite of the hard times many forex trading strategies have been
through in STRATEGY CONTEST.
         In
this article I am going to review of very simple strategy ECR’s last three month’s
performance and also Explanation of this strategy.
                In
the last three months except NOVEMBER “ECR” gave very steady profit over the
pairs of EUR/USD and AUD/USD.
Introduction about ECR:
                In that
strategy I used three indicators to create LONG and SHORT trade.
Indicators
Are,
                Ema
– Exponential Moving Average, Time Period – 34.
                Cci
– Commodity Channel Index, Time Period – 14.
                Rsi
– relative Strength Index, Time Period – 14.
I
Used 10 mins chart for this strategy on both the pairs EUR/USD and AUD/USD.The
ECR trades are on the pairs that take about 30 pips in profit and 50 pips in
Stop loss.
                TAKE
PROFIT LEVEL = 30 PIPS,   STOP LOSS LEVEL
= 50 PIPS.
Performance of ECR:               ECR Produces
above 80% of winning trades…
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Otto12 avatar
Otto12 20 Jan.

schön aufgearbeitet das thema, mehr als zwei indikatoren verwende ich nicht oder nur einfach P&F (point and figure)

Otto12 avatar
Otto12 20 Jan.

beautifully refurbished the topic, more than two indicators I use no or only simple P & F (point and figure)

bscholes avatar
bscholes 23 Jan.

I coded a custom indicator for the strategy which gives entry/exit signals, which you can find here: https://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?action=read&article=Risk-Analysis-And-Custom-Indicator&id=542

kkforex avatar
kkforex 24 Jan.

best luck for the month.

procur avatar
procur 31 Jan.

It`s a good and simple strategy. Not overloaded with indicators.

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25/73
Ranking
                                              My Girlfriend's Birthday I'm a trader. This is what I do to pay my bills. And I love every second of time I spend on doing this. Like you all know, trading is a serious stuff and nothing compares with a rolling coaster then trading the forex markets. I want to tell you a story I'll never forget. This year in May I signed up for a contest with one broker that offers Metatrader platform. The only thing I didn't signed up for was the wild ride I was about to jump in. Having different platforms opened on my screens is easy to see market moving. However, Metatrader looks the same even if offered by different brokers. Being a contest, like any runner-up I traded the whole amount for each trade. On one of my real accounts I had an amount similar with the one in the contest's account. And I guess you know what happened. I remember it like it was yesterday. Here I was, my girlfriend just opened a bottle of champagne to celebrate, and I was in a hurry to BUY aud\usd on the contest account. So I went upstairs (where I have the computers), bought the whole account with aud/usd (10 full lots and one more because I had some available margin le…
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DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 15 Aug.

Yeah, thats why I am no longer in the competition. I remember putting on a trade on the demo thinking it was the real..all gains went to the demo and none to the real..you have to focus when trading live. Good luck in both though

Dieselfx avatar
Dieselfx 17 Aug.

how about: well i closed the phone on Soros after an argue with him and when i looked at the charts it dropped instantly ...if u dont use SL it means u had a good week or month and u starting to be cocky and then ..u know

ritesh avatar
ritesh 28 Aug.

Your girl is lucky for you. God bless +1 ;D)))

adask avatar
adask 29 Aug.

Trading competitions is a stupid thing, that's for sure. But I think that if you open position in a wrong direction you should always close it ASAP you notice. I had it several times too and best you can do - just close it.

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10/73
Ranking
INTRODUCTION Technical analysis involves the use of price and chart patterns to predict the movement of currencies over various time horizons, usually for profit. This is often combined with fundamental analysis, since currencies reflect underlying macroeconomic variables and monetary policy.  However, regardless of the approach chosen by traders, I believe that there is a key set of trading tools that will often provide high-paying trades during both normal and heightened periods of volatility.   Using the Financial Crisis of 2008 and key events in 2011 related to the European Debt crisis, the following examples reveal the trading opportunities that appeared using these high-probability technical tools. Although some trades contradicted the expected reaction of investors to the underlying crisis, the signals still predicted the right direction in which to trade. Therefore, in the event of another period of heightened volatility, using these tools can provide attractive trades regardless of the nature or interpretation of the crisis itself.TECHNICAL TOOLS TREND LINES  These identify the current trend. Breaks of these usually represent the start of reversa…
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DaddyPapi avatar

thanks highwayman

ritesh avatar
ritesh 22 Aug.

Nice detailed article. Do you connect trend-lines to candle tails or on body? +1

DaddyPapi avatar
DaddyPapi 26 Aug.

I connect the tail ends when its a trend line. The only time I use the body is when I am drawing consolidation.

ritesh avatar
ritesh 26 Aug.

Well, that's different from my method: I connect body while drawing trend-lines and use tails for Fib calculations. Good point about consolidation :) something is common..

DaddyPapi avatar

The point of the article was to illustrate how certain patterns can be traded, both historically and recently. As long as the patterns repeat themselves, then they rules are applicable to today´s market movements (EURO CHF and EURO USD this year) - not just historical data as stated by Dukascopy´s review.

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