Forex mkt price movement and volatility are compounded weekly monthly, quarterly and yearly ,This week I will keep my focus on the weekly trend as I bring to the fore the weekly technical forecast and ichimoku trend analysis.
The weekly trends and development for the week 6 / 06 / 2016 and my point of view on trending currency pairs; price action, what has happened in the mkt in past week and what may likely be installed for the week ahead.
Reviewing the US dollar index as we all understand that all major currencies trade against the US dollar, so I found it informative and valuable analyzing the US dollar index from week to week to determine its weakness and strength and also gauge mkts trend direction for the week.
The dollar index trades downtrend as a result of immediate market reaction as expected given the huge decline in jobs added last month and the dollar proceeded to depreciate further ,reversing much of its gains within the past few weeks .
Major economic data release from the US last week was weak with Consumer Confidence recording 92.6 less than expected 96.1 , USD ISM Manufacturing rose from 50.8 to 51.3 in may , also Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed worst than expected decline from 123k to 38k while Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.7 in may .
Measuring the bracket of currencies against the US dollar , New Zealand emerged the top gainer followed by Japanese yen , Australian dollar , euro and Swiss franc while US dollar and Gbp was the worst performing currency last week .
This week the dollar index is positioned in the bearish territory and expected to depreciate further , Non Major tend change event is expected from the US this week and focus will continues to be on whether the Fed is about to hike this summer as June hike is unlikely due to the Brexit uncertainties which several FOMC members have mentioned as a factor weighing on the rate decision. From trend perspective the dollar index is currently trading below the kumo cloud , chikou span is below the price curve and tankan sen / kijun sen strong bearish cross and price is expected to continue downtrend trading around 93.60 this week .
Weekly Trend change events (T.C.E) and impact
Technical development to watch on Gbp jpy , Eur jpy
TREND CHANGE EVENTS
Gbp jpy resumes downtrend to close on a bearish note as The Pound Sterling continues to be driven by the upcoming EU referendum .
Major economic data from UK and Japan were relatively light. but data from US ( NFP ) and Brexit uncertainty remains the major key drive for the currency pair .
This week Gbp jpy is expected to continue downtrend as Japanese yen continues to strengthen on weaker Gbp and non trend change event is expected from both Uk and japan this week.
From technical and trend point of views Gbp jpy is currently trading below senkou span bearish cross , kumo cloud , chikou span is below the price curve and price is also below tenkan sen /kijun sen bearish cross .
If price continues downtrend , gbp jpy will be trading around 152.40 this week .
Eur jpy trades downtrend as Yen continues to strengthen across the mkts . major trend change event from Euro area and japan shows that EUR German Unemployment Change rose to 11k more than expected -5k with unemployment rate at 6.1%, Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index y/y came as expected at -0.1% while core CPI y/y was also at 0.80% and European Central Bank leaves minimum bid rate unchanged at 0% .
This week eur jpy is expected to remain in bearish trend and non major trend change event is expected as well .
From trend perspective the currency pair is currently trading below senkou span bearish cross , kumo cloud , chikou span is below the price curve and price is below tenkan sen /kijun sen bearish cross .
i expect eur jpy to continue downtrend trading at 120.40 this week .
As Ichimoku practitioner I will continue to take a look into the trending currency pairs from week to week and share my point of views about the mkts ,This week I will be keep watch on Gbp jpy and Eur jpy considering Trend change events and impact, probabilities and potential trend directions for the week.