In my first article for the Month of January, you have been able to see a different view of the Market through a brief Introduction to Constant Range Bars Charts (or range candles if it suites You better). I have also posted My January analysis on daily Charts for the Major Pairs. This week My article will also contain 2 parts: 1) The Range Bars Charts advantages in comparison with Time Charts, integrated in part 2) My weekly Analysis for Major Pairs for each of the Major Pairs (which will be updated through comments, and also other pairs). I also insist that You read My 12 Steps to Make a Trade, 12 Solution to Discipline yourself as a Trader, before you read My Weekly Analysis.
Part I - Constant Range Bars/Candles Charts advantages:
- Range Bars give You a Better Price Action, by eliminating the Choppy Market Noise because the Time is irrelevant in Range Bars Charts. The Long Candles are cut into smaller candles with the same size that give You clearer Entry Signals, and let You make a Better Analysis.
- Support and Resistence Levels are Clearer on Range Bars Charts.
- Some of the Indicators that are based on Price Action, like MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, Stochastic oscillator, Moving Averages, and Especially Volumes, Eliminate the Lag Time in Constant Range Bars Charts.
- Elliott Waves Analysis May be Clearer.
- Range Bars Charts and Volumes Analysis (Volume Spread Analysis) are Two of the best trading Instruments that can be used for a Successful Strategy.
- More effective Price Action shows clearer Shapes and Channels, Trendlines and Moving Averages that define a Trend.
- Congestion Areas in a Flat Market could be seen Better in Range Bars Charts.
- >>>IMPORTANT: All the Advantages of Constant Range Bars Charts that you have read until now, give You an Edge on the Market. They show another view of The Market to You. What Most traders Don't See. But this should also encourage You to use both Kinds of charts (Price Movement and time Based Charts) to have Both Views of the Market.<<<
That is why in the second Part of the Article I will use Both Charts for My Weekly Analysis.
Part II - Weekly Analysis Series for January - Week - 09th-13th
As You may Know from my Previous Analisys I use the following instruments for my Weekly Analysis:
- Pivot Points (Daily , Weekly , Monthly) - the Main Pivots, Supports and Resistences,
- Simple Moving Averages (30,50,100,200 SMA) Crosses,
- Fibonacci Retracements (38,2 ; 50 and 61,8),
- Support and Resistences,
- Candlestick Fromations - trading signals,
- Crosses between 5 and 13 EMA on 1H, 4H and daily charts - trading signals.
- I also use Volumes (VSA), for confirmation of the trading signals.
1) Eur/Usd - 4 Hours chart - Weekly View (09-13).
The daily candle from Friday was strongly bearish, with a Bearish Volume. That alone could be a Bearish Signal for this Week. On 4 hours chart price has already broken 1,285(Monthly S3 Pivot) and 1,2736(last Week's S2 Pivot).
Bearish Probability would break the next support at 1,265 and move on to 1,251(last week's S3 Pivot). If price will break that level next support will be 1,219(Monthly S3 Pivot).
Bullish Probability could break the downtrendline at 1,285(confluence with Monthly S2 and last Week's S2 Pivots) and move upside to 1,296(last Week's Pivot maybe confluence with 100 SMA) and further to 1,3065(last week's R1 Pivot, confluence with 23,6 fibonacci retracement from October and 200 SMA). A Breakout above this level would signal a possible Trend reversal on 4H chart. The next resistence would be 1,3287(38,2 fibonacci retracement from October).
Take a Look at 35 Pips Constant Range Bars(Candles) Chart corelated with the 4Hours chart and see the Differences.
2) Gbp/Usd - 4 Hours chart - Weekly View (09-13).
In comparison with the 35 Pips Constant Range Candles Chart:
The Friday Daily Candle had a strong Bearish Volume. On 4H chart, Gbp/Usd in moving sideways inside a congestion area between 1,5751(Monthly Pivot) and 1,5374(Monthly S1 Pivot).
Higher Probability for this week seems to be Bearish if 1,5374(Monthly s1) level will be Broken. Price could move down under 1,534(last week's S1 Pivot) to break 1,527(Support) and 1,5184(last week's S2 Pivot) to reach 1,5045(Monthly S2). That is a Key Level from Where price could retrace upside.
Bullish Probability will apear if 1,5374(Monthly S1) will hold as support. Price could break 1,552(last week's Main Pivot) to reach the Key Level 1,557(200 SMA confluence with the secondary Downtrendline) and further to 1,5751(Main downtrendline confluence with Monthly Main Pivot).
3) Aud/Usd - 4 Hours chart - Weekly View (09-13).
In comparison with 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart:
On 4H Chart price is moving inside an Uptrend, and has retraced to 100 SMA close to a secondary uptrendline.
Bearish Probability could break 1,016(Monthly Pivot) and 1,012(Weekly S1 confluence with the 200 SMA, the secondary uptrendline and with the secondary downtrendline on higher time frames). Under this important Key-Level price could reach 1,005(Weekly S2) and Move Further to 0,9845(Weekly S3). Be careful to the Main Uptrendline on 4H chart. Next Support 0,9754(Monthly S1).
Bullish Action would break 1,0255(Weekly Pivot) and reach 1,0239(Weekly R1 confluence with the Main downtrendline on the higher time frames). This is an important Key-Level. Next support will be 1,046(Weekly R2).
4) Usd/Chf - 4 Hours chart - Weekly View (09-13).
In comparison with the 35 Pips constant Range Bars Chart:
The Volume was Bullish on Friday, a good signal to remain long with the uptrend. But we have to Be careful to see the Signals of a Retracement, at least to 100 SMA on 4H chart.
Bullish Probability would break the uptrend channel and 0,9645(Monthly R2) level to reach 0,9684(Weekly R1 Pivot). Next resistence 0,9785(weekly R2).
Bearish Action could fall under 0,9493(Weekly Pivot) and reach 0,9393(Important Key-Level, confluence between Monthly R1 Pivot, Weekly S1, 100 SMA and Uptrendline). Under that support 0,9333(200 SMA) holds the Uptrend on 4 Hours Chart. Lower support could be 0,92(Weekly S2) and 0,907(Monthly Pivot).
5) Usd/Cad - 4 Hours chart - Weekly View (09-13).
In Comparison With the 35 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart:
On 4H chart price has broken an Important Key-Level, 1,0225(confluence between Monthly and Weekly Pivot) and also 1,0245(200 SMA). Be careful, on 35 pips Range Bars(Candles) Chart, 100 SMA and 200 SMA have crossed, that could be an important bullish signal.
Bullish probability could break the Downtrendline, after a retracement to 200 SMA. If the Trendline will be broken, 1,0369(Weekly R1 Pivot) and 1,0448(Weekly R2) will be the next resistences.
Bearish Probability would fall under 1,0225(Weekly and Monthly Pivots), to reach 1,014(Weekly S1) and to break the Uptrendline around 1,012Level. Downside, the next support is 0,9996(Weekly S2 Support).
6) Usd/Jpy - 4 Hours chart - Weekly View (09-13).
In comparison with the 15 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart:
Usd/Jpy has found resistence at Main Downtrendline on the Higher Time Frames. Now the price seems to Resume the downtrend, but we have to be careful for a BOJ intervention to depreciate Jpy.
Bullish Action would break 76,96(Weekly Pivot confluence with the secondary Downtrendline), to reach 77,31(Weekly R1, maybe confluence with 100 SMA), and move further to 77,68-77,7area(Important Key-Area, confluence betweet Monthly Pivot, Weekly R2, 200 SMA and Main Downtrendline).
Bearish Probability would break the secondary uptrendline to reach 76,58(Weekly S1), 76,445(Monthly S1) and 76,23(Weekly S2).
7) Nzd/Usd - 4 Hours chart - Weekly View (09-13).
In comparison with 35 the Pips Constant Range Bars Chart:
Price has broken the Downtrendline on 4H chart and then retraced to it. But the volume doesn't seem to be Bullish to sustain the Upmove.
Bullish Action could break 0,789(Weekly R1) to reach 0,798(Weekly R2).
Bearish Probability would break 0,781(Weekly Pivot) to reach 0,7754(Monthly Pivot confluence with Weekly S1 and Downtrendline- now support) and fall further to 0,764(Weekly S2 Pivot) and break the Main Uptrendline to reach 0,747(Weekly R3).
Disclaimer: Take Responsability for You own Trading Decisions.
Don't forget to read My next Week's Article and Analysis,