Greetings dear traders. This is the first article from April. It will contain, as usual, the Monthly view Analysis (on the Daily charts) for the major pairs: Eur/Usd, Usd/Chf, Gbp/Usd, Aud/Usd, Usd/Jpy, Usd/Cad and Nzd/Usd. I will update the analysis in the comments section with the weekly view analysis on the 4 hours charts for the same pairs after the article will be approved.

   This article will also contain an explanation for the currency correlations for some of the Major Pairs and Cross pairs that most traders use in their trading plan.

   * I) Currencies Correlations.

   When you are following the correlation between two Major/Cross currency pairs, you also have to keep into your attention the third hedging pair, which should move side-ways into a congestion area on the medium and long term. For example: if we analyse Eur/Usd and Usd/Chf (negative correlation), than we also have to keep an eye on Eur/Chf.

   Another important factor to take into consideration when you are analysing currency correlations is the vollatility of the pairs. For example: Eur/Usd and Usd/Chf have both a high volatility with a similar value. The third hedging pair, Eur/Chf has a very low volatility.

   Other examples could be:

- Eur/Jpy - Chf/Jpy - positive correlation, similar volatility, Eur/Chf - the third hedging pair,
- Eur/Aud - Aud/Chf - negative correlation, similar volatility, Eur/Chf - the third hedging pair,

- Eur/Aud - Gbp/Aud - positive correlation, similar volatility, Eur/Gbp - the third hedging pair with low volatility and side-ways movement on the medium and long term,
- Eur/Jpy - Gbp/Jpy - positive correlation, similar volatility, Eur/Gbp - the third hedging pair,
- Eur/Usd - Gbp/Usd - positive correlation, similar volatility, Eur/Gbp - the third hedging pair.

After this small introduction into currency correlations I will show you exactly the correlation ratios for different time frames and pairs :

- Eur/Usd, Usd/Chf, Gbp/Usd, Aud/Usd, Usd/Jpy, Usd/Cad, Nzd/Usd - major pairs,
- Eur/Jpy, Chf/Jpy, Gbp/Jpy - cross pairs

- Daily Charts - last 30 days,
- Weekly Charts - last 30 weeks.

 

 

   * II) Monthly view Analysis for the major pairs.

   As usual our analysis will contain the following instruments:

- Monthly Pivots (Main, 3 Supports, 3 Resistences),
- SMA - 30,50,100 and 200,
- Trendlines and Channels,
- Supports and Resistences,
- Fibonacci Retracements,
- Volume analysis,
- Candlestick formations.


   1) Eur/Usd - Monthly view - April - Daily chart,

 



   The Fiber has been moving bearish in a downtrend on the daily chart.

   Bullish probability - could find support around 1.304 (the Monthly S1 pivot, confluence with the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the last bullish correction), and then break upside through 1.317 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, confluence with the 100 DMA) and reach first 1.326 (Monthly main pivot), break it, and move further upside to reach 1.355 (last resistence, confluence with the Monthly R1 pivot and the 200 DMA). If the price will find resistence around 1.355, it could retrace back to the Monthly main pivot and then break the Monthly R1 pivot to reach 1.377 (the Monthly R2 pivot). This could be a false breakout.

   Bearish probability - could break the 1.304 support (the Monthly S1 pivot, confluence with the 50% Fibonacci retracement) to move further to 1.297 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, confluence with the last support), and then reach the 1.275 level (Monthly S2 pivot). After a bullish retracement to 1.297, the price could move further downside to 1.252 (Monthly S3 pivot).


   2) Gbp/Usd - Monthly view - April - Daily chart,

  



   The Cable has been gathering strenght in the sideways movement from the last months and should breakout soon.

   Bullish probability - the price could find support around 1.585 (the 200 DMA, confluence with the Monthly main pivot, main downtrend dynamic resistence line and secondary uptrend dynamic support line), and then break upside to reach the 1.605 level (last resistence and the Monthly R1 pivot). After a bearish retracement back to the uptrend line, price could move further upside to 1.620 (the Monthly R2 pivot) and even reach 1.640 (the Monthly R3 pivot).

   Bearish probability - if the 1.585 level (confluence between the Monthly main pivot, the 200 DMA and the main downtrend line and secondary uptrend line cross) will be broken and confirmed, the price could reach first 1.571 (the confluence between the Monthly S1 pivot and the 100 DMA), and then move further downside to find support around 1.550 (the Monthly S2 pivot). If this level will hold as support, price could retrace bullish back to 1.571, before resuming the bearish movement to reach 1.536 (the Monthly S3 pivot). This would be a great level to watch for a higher amplitude bullish correction.


   3) Usd/Chf - Monthly view - April - Daily chart,

  


   The Swiss Franc has been moving inside a triangle vortex between two trendlines, bullish and bearish, dynamic support and resistence. It seems that the Usd/Chf pair is accumulating strenght for a higher amplitude breakout.

   Bullish probability - the price could break 0.925 (confluence between the 100 DMA and Monthly R1 pivot, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement), or test it and retrace back to find support around 0.909 (the Monthly main pivot, future confluence with the 50 and 30 DMAs). If this support will hold, price will break upside to reach first 0.946 (the Monthly R2 pivot) and then maybe move further to 0.958 - 0.962 area (confluence between the last resistence and the Monthly R3 pivot).

   Bearish probability - if the price will break downside the 0.909 level (the Monthly main pivot, future confluence with the 30 and 50 DMAs), the next support will be 0.896 (38.2 % Fibonacci retracement). Further downside, price could reach 0.888 (confluence between the Monthly S1 pivot and the 200 DMA). We could see a false breakout from this level to reach 0.872 (the Monthly S2 pivot), and then a bullish retracement back to 0.896 and 0.909.


   4) Usd/Jpy - Monthly view - April - Daily chart,

  


   The Japanese Yen has already retraced bearish from the parabolic move bullish from 76.02 to 84.19. The price is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 81.06. This is an important key-level to watch for the future probabilities of the Usd/Jpy price.

   Bullish probability - if the 81.06 level (the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement, confluence with the 50 DMA) will hold as support, or maybe price could even fall further to test 79.65 - 79.14 area (Important key area, confluence between the 100 DMA, the Monthly main pivot, and the 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement), then we might see a strong bullish move to reach 83.29 (future confluence between the Monthly R1 pivot and the 30 DMA). The next resistence will be 84.19 (the last resistence), a good level to watch for a bearish correction.

   Bearish probability - if the 79.65 - 79.14 Key area (the Monthly main pivot, confluence with the 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement, and the 100 DMA) will be broken downside, price could quickly move to the 78.2 - 77.65 area (the 200 DMA, confluence with the Monthly S1 pivot), retrace back upside to the Monthly main pivot and then resume the breakout downside to reach 76.02 (last support), before a strong bullish move back to 79.65 (the Monthly main pivot) and beyond.



5) Aud/Usd - Monthly view - April - Daily chart,


 



6) Nzd/Usd - Monthly view - April - Daily chart,


  



7) Usd/Cad - Monthly view - April - Daily chart,


 


   I will post the explanations for the bullish and bearish scenarios for the last three pairs: Aud/Usd (Aussie), Nzd/Usd (Kiwi) and Usd/Cad (Loonie) in the comments section of the article after it will be approved, because I have not enough words left.

   I will also post an Update for the 4 hours charts for this week in the comments section of this article Tomorrow or the day after.

   Disclaimer: Please take responsability for your own trading decisions.

  Thank you for your time.
  To your success,

  Doctortyby


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