This article is an update for my last article "Black Days for Gold Is Coming"

Preface

In my last article, I wrote about selling gold after breaking the strong support at 1540, I advised to sell at this place with small stop loss and great take profit. But what happened ? Gold fall dramatically in the Monday opening in the last week, it seems like that gold collapse.

What happened for gold :


  • Let's remember the broken support :

The price of gold at 1540 is not normal place, let's see what this area represents.



Chart Shows strong area at 1540


  • Breaking the 1540 caused collapse :

When gold price hit the 1540, downtrend accelerated and it seems that huge stop losses was hit, and this is exactly what caused the collapse. Briefly falling prices hit huge stop losses (turn from buy to sell) which causes more falling for prices.




Chart Shows that gold ounce lost 220 USD in 30 hour


Gold recent Scenarios:


After collapse of gold, in the long term we should look to sell gold again and again but in the near term retracements is expected and we will sell at the probable strong resistance available. Below we will discuss the probable retracements of gold and recent scenarios of the movement of gold.

  • First scenario (gold will go back to touch 1540) :

This is the classic scenario for gold, that's means that the gold will go up quickly yo touch 1540 area and then fall back. From my experience in gold, expect everything from gold. But due to the strong fall which is the biggest from 1980 (in one day) this scenario have the probability of 20%. Remember the 1540 area will be the ultimate resistance for gold in the next months.


  • Second scenario (1425-1430 area as resistance for gold):

As gold fall happened quickly, we can check the chart at 1 hour or 4 hour to see the expected resistance area which will make gold fall again. This scenario (1425-1430) have the probability of 39%.


  • Third scenario (1495-1505 area as resistance for gold):

As gold fall happened quickly, we can check the chart at 1 hour or 4 hour to see the expected resistance area which will make gold fall again. This scenario (1495-1505) have the probability of 40%.


Chart shows different scenarios of gold before falling again.

  • Fourth scenariobreak 1540 and push above):

Gold may reach 1540 quickly and break again higher. This scenario have the probability of 1%. It will happen if North Korea hit South Korea or Israel hit Iran... somethings like that. I do not think that gold will push higher 1540 area in this year.


Summary

Gold is in downtrend, but do not sell from any level, use levels mentioned above and be sure success is awaiting you.


I hope for you great profits




Translate to English Show original