This article is in response to some developments reported as of the end of the first week of February.. The article covers some of this thesis and brings it to light in what is a more dramatic revolving trend.

In light of the most recent U.S. jobs report, I think the fact that tame jobs data leaving the central banks pat on interest rates is a moot point. If you are serious about market plays, I don’t think interest rates are the thing at this rate… what should be obvious is that markets are imbalanced, and they could remain that way, violently so. Although equity markets are a glorious pinnacle, it’s the equivalent of staring at a shiny iceberg, in my opinion. In other words, it should be appreciated as a guide for direction, and not be an attraction.

The concession being made by retail crowds for what will be a volatile market, offers little discount for investment returns. The idea that interest rates are low, and therefore the stock market should spur itself on is a dangerous premise. Also, the idea that markets are due for a correction, giving rise to short bets is only marginally profitable. Not a good investment thesis to have…

Any de-levering of financial regulation, should it lead to crowd-sourcing of investment inflows just makes for a richer downfall. The point is, you make way more money buying in times of panic and hysteria than you do making an obvious short bet before the lever gets pulled. And that buying opportunity on the way back up is a great test of character. What exactly is your thesis as an investor or trader?

Part of the major culmination that has yet to arrive also has to do with there being obvious levers; for instance, when Great Britain challenges the EU’s status quo in court, it’s to their own advantage. Or, when Italy will finally see their shiny iceberg, swiftly pulling itself together for a referendum vote, that's to their advantage. But, really, these are zero-sum scenarios, at best… it will consequently be cause for greater volatility.

If there isn’t any betterment from crowd-sourced investment dollars, or ‘retail traders’, there will only be wasted, sunk-cost investments. That’s the moral thesis. The truth is, low and steady interest rates, and steady, rich equity markets are not what’s of interest for policymakers and bigwigs. They are most concerned with their holding costs, delivery costs, and burn rate of their cash flow. Technically speaking, this has to do with calculating the cost of maintaining margin, or a margin call.

To say the U.S. economy is at full employment with room to run hotter might be relevant to the point that money lines and investors are concerned with rates to an exact degree. However, it is less significant when juxtaposed against the fact that we are set on reaching equilibrium, and the obvious old plays are not going to make good.

A low burn rate of cash is good for the coffers, but is no power play, and can seem miserly (people working for tips are far from being the investor type). It’s a socially aggravating position for big money to be in, and any mistakes can lead to an anticlimactic resolution, like coming before the miracle happens.

What's more, spendthrifts may become ironically surprised when their extravagant lifestyles get cut short with their same old plays. Point being, you should be more concerned with savings than investments, but not get stuck drying up your funds like laundry without planning for a new tumble wash in the cycle.

Your best bet is to take money off the table and trade risk.
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