Archimedes once said:

"Give me a lever strong, enough, and a prop strong enough, and I can singlehandedly move the world"

"Give me a maximum or a minimum of the year's quarter, and I will tell where the price will go :>"


The method, I'm going to talk here about, is a Determination of a Long-term Trend.

In my opinion, prior to a good move in one direction, the market is getting ready for 3-15 months. Of course 15 months, is too much, that's why in this article, I will describe a 3 months approach.

"Determination of a Long-term Trend"

Before the beginning, I would like to thank a Dukascopy company, for the given ability of quarter time frame charts drawing.

The main points:
  1. We're looking for a maximum and minimum levels of previous quarter.
  2. After, the minimum and maximum has been formed, the price is not testing the level before a breakdown.
  3. Raising power of trend, after the level is broken.


Picture 2 (T/F 1Month):

As you can see on picture 2, the signal for a long-term trend determination has been formed in may 2014.
For a signal confirmation we have had to wait for a quarter closure.

Picture 3:

As you can see, the Quarter 4 of 2012 and the Quarter 2 of 2014 are demonstrated on the picture 3 above.

Picture 4:

On the picture 4, we can see that the price has not tested the minimum before the break of this level.

Picture 5

On the picture 5, daily graph, you can see in more detail, how the price has dropped after the break of the level.

Picture 6:

When searching for a long term signals, External Fibonacci Ratio plays the major role. At the present moment we are witnessing a possible scenario of the AUD price behaviour, as you can see on the page 6 above.

Page 7:

On the page 7, I'm showing you the behaviour of the GBP in similar situation.


As we can see, from the page above, the main principles has worked for the GBP/USD pair on up trend direction:
  1. We have found the level "Maximum" which is pointed by the red arrow.
  2. After, the maximum has been formed, the price did not test the level before a breakdown. It flew Up after the level has been broken.
  3. We have seen a raised power of the currency pair move after a level breakdown.


We can search for a long-term trend, and employ any trading strategy using this method as a road map.

As a result we have a possibility to understand a future price movement.

The displayed examples on GBP and AUD are clearly showing, that the methodology is working.

In my honest opinion, the best part of this method is that, it's easy. Nothing can be easier then looking at the price once in a quarter, to understand a future behaviour to the instrument.

All the questions, that might be a raised, please ask them in the comment section.


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