MEGA BUY MONDAY  5 december 2011 (ON USDJPY AND GBPJPY)
BOJ will make a intervention their minister told that this action will hapen veryy soon



Friday, the Statistical Office of Employment in the U.S. announced that in March there was an increase in the number of jobs in non-agricultural sector with 162,000, however, the unemployment rate remained at 9.7%. 
Although the number was below forecasts (which were 184 000), it seems to signify a return to creating jobs in the U.S. economy still being healing.

Among the positive effects

In almost all industrial sectors has been an increase in employment. Notable sectors in this regard is the construction (which grew by 15,000 jobs), the production (which employed 17,000 employees), and temporary employment (which was an increase of 40,000) . This figure is notable especially because it confirms that employers have sought a revival of activity.

Among the negative effects

In March, long-term unemployed (over 6 months) increased by 414,000 (to 6.5 million). Overall, long-term unemployment affects 41% of unemployed people seeking jobs, a figure that illustrates how hard it back into the labor market.

Market reaction

Increasing the number of employees in non-agricultural sector - along with encouraging indices of production / non-manufacturing ISM (ISM Manufacturing and Non Manufacturing Indices) - Recovery hopes raised among investors: stock markets last week from around the world were revived and oil prices jumped above 85 dollars per barrel.

Looking ahead, investors will monitor the volume of U.S. consumer spending and employment indicators to measure the strength of the labor market.

Today

Forex and CFDs investors will consider the minutes of FOMC last meeting (19:00 GMT) to find clues about the intentions of the Federal Reserve Bank to normalize monetary policy.

From a position trader's perspective looking at the very long term, if you look at the monthly Euro chart, I see the formation of a bull flag on its way to completing wave 5 downwards. My target based on this view is around the 1.12 handle which makes it a 61.8% retrace of the 2000 lows at 0.8225 to the 2008 highs at 1.6019.

Obviously these moves do not happen in a straight line so let's take a closer look at this same monthly chart. Right now I see that we are sitting on a falling trend line offering relatively medium support at around the 1.35 area (Where we are now). The monthly candle for September has significantly pierced this line, rebounded, and is now challenging it again. 

From a purely technical perspective, assuming this area offers major support, the move further down is not likely to happen until the October candle and from this candle's lows at 1.3383 we should expect a rebound of approx 200 to 300 pips upwards to approx 1.3585 to 1.3685 (If we look at smaller time frames we would be able to more closely narrow down the targets but for the purpose of this post we will stick to the monthly perspective only). 

The above mentioned 200 to 300 pip estimate is based on the monthly rebounds of similar long term trend line penetrations. More specifically the 2008 downward penetration of the long term rising trend line and the similar 2010 downward penetration of the newer long term rising trend line. (Refer to chart)

Now, without getting into too many specifics, let's add some of the current fundamentals and general market sentiments to the picture. I will provide some reference to some news articles which back up my following statements but I am not going to get too in depth here as it would take far too much space. This is just one post and not an entire thread. LOL

1. The situation in Europe is all doom and gloom and the politicians do not seem to be doing much about it. Every day more and more economists are calling for a Greek default. Politicians who were opposed to a default are now admitting that a default becomes more and more possible each day. They do not want a default because they do not know what the outcome would be and how much damage it would inflict on the economy. However, they are now starting to realize that kicking the can down the road just causes more uncertainty in the markets and in corporate & consumer confidence. This is not good for the global economy. Therefore, default or no default, the outlook is negative. 
http://www.forexcrunch.com/greek-def...r-6-countries/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...om-europe.html

2. The growth forecasts have once again been adjusted downwards. The ECB will eventually have no choice but to reverse its rate increase of 0.5% earlier this year. This move will probably come at the next ECB council meeting and be reflected in the October rate statement. The only question is if it will be 0.25% or the full 0.5%.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...78M03Z20110923

I think I've said enough for now. I suggest you keep your eyes on the news section and perhaps tune in to CNBC and/or Bloomberg to get a better sense on what is going on out there. You don't need an economics degree to figure it out. The writing is on the wall and the technicals support the fundamentals as well as the general sentiment.

In conclusion, we should all realize that nobody can predict what is going to happen. We can only make our next trade decision based on the best information available to us. The best chance of a trade being successful depends on how all three analysis methods line up with each other. Confluence of everything, just like when all your technical indicators point to a specific direction. If you ignore the fundamentals, you're not doing a compete analysis and your chances of loss increase.

Happy trading and good green profitable pips to all.

Peace 

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