
Bank Forecasts for Major Fx Pairs
AdrianWS Posted 21 Jan. in #Majors #2013 #Predictions #Fx Forecast20/35
Ranking
But seeing as this is primarily filled with Forex Traders I thought I would share with you the forecasts for the major FX pairs so I will start by showing you the Forecast Curves Mean for all the main contributors from around the world from banks like; UBS, Deutsche bank, Goldman Sachs, Barclays for example.
EURUSD

- 1 Month Mean - 1.3090 / 1 Month High - 1.3450 / 1 Month Low - 1.27
- 3 Month Mean - 1.2930 / 3 Month High - 1.3780 / 3 Month Low - 1.22
- 6 Month Mean - 1.2790 / 6 Month High - 1.3700 / 6 Month Low - 1.16
- 12 Month Mean - 1.2690 / 12 Month High - 1.3700 / 12 Month Low - 1.12

GBPUSD:

The GBPUSD rate is seemingly thought of as being flat over the next year, but the min/max shows huge disparity.

But once again a spread chart of rolling historical forecast versus the spot rate is shown, this seems to be less reliable than on EURUSD.
AUDUSD:

Like GBPUSD there are some analysts who are predicting a huge change over the next year.

It seems however analysts have been more accurate in the past, however this could be due the more trending nature of the AUD with regard to Yield differentials and so this is to be expected.
USDJPY

Investment Bank Trade Ideas :
Credit Suisse have called a Long EURUSD trade initiated at 1.3295 on Jan. 14th, and are targeting 1.3480 with stops at 1.3260, saying a breakthrough of 1.3249/57 could see weakness towards 1.3140 and then 1.2998.

Nomura have initiated a Long AUDUSD by buying $15 million at 1.0515 looking for 1.1081 and stops at 1.0300 citing these reasons :
- Global risks Receding and 2013 looks to be low Vol and pro Carry supporting AUD.
- Nomura see Australia 1st Quarter Basic Balance to improve due to low bond redemptions.
- Increase in export capacity and oil prices lead to higher exports.

Now these Bank trades aren't to be seen as too important as there are certain banks such as Goldman Sachs have a reputation of doing the opposite of what they say with there FX specialist Stolper getting the calls 100% wrong on his 10 past calls.
Thank you for reading and hope this has helped.
Adrian.