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GBP/CAD : Future Back - further upside expected

In this analysis, I will cover three things:
  • The current landscape of the GBP/CAD ("today")
  • The market dynamics impacting GBP/CAD 3 years ago ("yesterday")
  • The "yesterday" to "today" story
Finally, I will address how the next 2 months will differ from today and conclude with an expected rate of 1.6799 for the GBP/CAD on the 1st of November 2013.The current landscape of the GBP/CAD ("today")GBP/CAD is currently trading above the weekly range but within the monthly range. With the daily support line a…
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deliriou5 7 10月

The analysis is still valid although I was expecting the retracement at 1.68 to be at a slower rate, allowing for an 121.8 extension of the move to 1.69+.

Factoring a 38.2% retracement to 1.66 from that point, we should see the price hover around the 1.68 mark towards the end of October, in line with expectations.

Higher GBP volatility will put into question this analysis.

deliriou5 avatar
deliriou5 19 10月

With roughly 2 trading weeks to go - the trade direction is still tracking well. Low weekly volatility supports a 200 pip range on either side of the current price at c.1.66 (1.64 to 1.68).

I am currently still favouring the GBP over the CAD so a 1.68 trajectory seems likely.

deliriou5 avatar
deliriou5 29 10月

If Nov 1 was prior to Wednesday, the trajectory to 1.68 would be almost perfect ...but with FOMC on Wednesday and the CAD GDP on Thursday, I would need to rather fortunate if the prices hover around the current range.

It seems unlikely but I will still maintain long GBP/CAD trades despite the implied increase in volatility in the next 2 days.

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