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AUD/USD to remain offered in the weeks ahead

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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
January - April rally topped out near the confluence of 38.2% retracement of 2014 - 2016 downswing, 2011 - 2016 support/resistance line and 100 week…
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al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 4: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report might have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see a reaction of the European traders to the aforementioned report.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 5: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150+ pip decline in Cable and a 200+ pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did oil while gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 6: Australian dollar's range for this week has been barely over 50 pips with the main action in other currencies. Nevertheless, narrow ranges are almost always followed with a breakout to the either side and FOMC meeting on Wednesday or Aussie labour force report on Thursday could be the catalysts. The pair is trading near the trendline drawn off of 2001 and 2008 lows and just below 100 DMA. 50 DMA, approaching from above, is the next resistance. Stronger support is about 100 pips below and comprises of 2015 support/resistance line and 200 DMA.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 7: In yesterday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not entirely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will likely be felt for weeks, if not months.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 8: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made a new low before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the E.U. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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