"Unexpected strong EURUSD movement on Friday (14 Oct)" by FG_Trading in Dukascopy Forex Community
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Unexpected strong EURUSD movement on Friday (14 Oct)

15Nov2014

Unexpected strong EURUSD movement at the end of Friday (14 Oct)

Here I want to explain my point of view on it,

1. What about the news "Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)" acctually it was better then before - 89.4 points. But I assume the tactics of big players to move the EURUSD pair against the market accumulated shorts to cause massive stop outs of bears on a weak Friday's market. The news could work as a trigger only to stop out some players and to start accumulating LONG positions for others who initiated this movement.
2. By technical analisys we hit (re-newed) the strong daily level (88.19*) on USDX (see my img). I've made more detailed analysis of levels. Now I updated my previous post regarding USDX*. Here's the levels (from top):

Orange (monthly) - 97.57, 89.30, 86.06, 84.10, 80.86
Blue (weekly) - 89.51, 87.0, 85.43, 84.49, 82.95,
Green (daily) - 94.34, 90.57, 88.19, 86.74, 84.35, 82.87

3. As per my TS ("JWS") previous day (Thursday 13th ) was the end of EURUSD daily 2nd cycle. EURUSD accumulated the great disbalanes by the end of this cycle. A lot money of players (who were shorting) stuck on above levels. This could force the pair to move at the begining of next cycle (on 14th) which I expected. I increased my balance up to 79K thanks to this movement. Similar disbalances we can see many times. The last large one - The Crisis of 2008, when a huge amont of disbalanes were accumulated on the market. What happened after you know.

4. My prognosis. USDX squeezed between 88.19 and double** level (87.0 + 86.74)
We are in between 1st and 2nd daily cycle. And we still have potential to go to double strong level (89.30 + 89.51) if 88.19 will be broken*** on a daily basis. Then reverse for downtrend at the end of 2nd daily cycle - 1st scenario.
If 87.0 + 86.74 will be broken we can go to test 86.06, then comeback approx 50% of previous move by 2nd daily cycle timeline****. Then reverse for downtrend - 2nd scenario.
Less expected scenario if directly go down towards tripple** level (84.49 + 84.35 + 84.10)
Movement of USDX is right opposite to EURUSD because euro has almost 60 % of USDX value.

* - please note that quotes of USDX can be different from broker to broker
** - please note double or tripple levels can be the most strong
*** - be broken means - passed through and left behind
**** - please add days of weekend inbetween when counting final daily cycle timelines

P.S. As I wrote before in my previous posts - this month is very important for trend continuation. Or we will reverse here or will continue the previous trend.

Good luck, good trades!
FG_Trading
"Forex is a simple geometry"

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Convallium avatar
15 Nov.

Very informative! thanks)

FG_Trading avatar
15 Nov.

Thank you Convallium. Information ! I found that when you open the image via post link you can hardly see my H4, daily timelines. Please visit my Gallery and find updated image there...

Convallium avatar
15 Nov.

ok) I like your thought- Forex is a simple geometry)

MobNaga avatar
16 Nov.

btw, why blue color text on black back color. It not kind to my junk eyes :))

FG_Trading avatar
18 Nov.

I tried to save your eyes my friend, black background color is better for your good eyes, I think.... :-)
And more, still preparing my answer to your good job (Open Time in 484820ordersland) this article. I will let you know when ready :-)))

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