EUR/USD Outlook
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the upside and the recovery from 1.2500 short term bottom might extend higher.I expect upside to be limited well below 1.2994 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2622 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.2500 support first. Break will extend the decline from 1.3993 towards 1.2042 low next.
In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 long term top is viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.3993 is tentatively viewed as the third leg of such pattern and should target target 1.1875 low and below. On the upside, break of 1.2994 resistance will bring some consolidations first before staging another decline.
GBP/USD Outlook
The recovery from 1.5951 short term bottom is still in progress and intraday bias remains mildly on the upside. Nonetheless, i expect upside to be limited well below 1.6523 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.6031 minor support will turn bias to the downside. Break of 1.5951 will extend the decline from 1.7190 and target 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721 next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. The current development, with medium term top formed at 1.7190, argues that such consolidation is possibly completed, just below 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332. The firm break of 55 weeks EMA affirmed this bearish case and GBP/USD is now heading back to 1.4813 key support level.
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