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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 21-08-2014 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 21/08/2014 17:10
Community Forecasts
Community member Giorgio3 on EUR/USD
"Well, the market is currently bullish and needs to get to 1.35042, which is 38% retracement from the current daily fib downswing retracement. So, it appears the market will go up today and then retrace slowly next week creating a bullish crown to 1.33719 and then after next week I anticipate a quick rally to 1.35042."
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY
"The aftermath of the crisis, in particular high unemployment rates and continued public and private-sector deleveraging, limit the potential growth contributions from public and private consumption."
- Berenberg Bank (based on Bloomberg)
The Euro extended its bullish wave that started on 13 of August and since then the EUR/JPY cross has gained more than 100 pips. Today the Europe’s shared currency breached the monthly PP at 137.76; although, it was not able to consolidate its positions above the level and later fell lower. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
USD
If the economy continues strengthening at a more rapid pace than Fed’s policy makers estimate, interest rates could be lifted sooner than expected. This is the message markets received from the July FOMC meeting minutes. However, for now most Fed officials are not ready to signal an earlier-than-anticipated rate increase even despite the rapidly improving economy and labour market.
Expert Commentary
"They indicate longer term trends toward increased production by manufacturers’ overseas and declining competitiveness of the Japanese technical industry."
- Josh O’Byrne, FX Strategist, on Japanese economy and the JPY
Japan's economy contracted sharply in the second quarter after a sales-tax increase in April sent household spending tumbling and the real GDP, shrank 6.8%. Prime Minister Abe and other policy makers have said they expect the downturn to be short-lived. >>
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Press Review
Reuters
Fed's George says U.S. economy is ready for a rate hike
The time has come for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, a top U.S. central banker said on Thursday, citing improvements in the labor market.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: GBP
The past period was extremely discouraging for the British pound, deepening the recent downtrend of the index and causing the currency to lose around 1% of its opening value.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
July Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index findings appeared to be the most pessimistic. The report revealed that while short-term global economic sentiment index fell moderately, three-year index plummeted by 0.12 points, the biggest decline since records began. This sharp fall may be attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as uneven economic picture in the world. On top of that, all the regions also posted falls in their both short and long term economic outlook.
Global Stock Market Review
European stock market continued to decline last week
Share prices of European companies traded in a mixed environment during the previous week, partly reversing the negative development of the weeks before. Economy of the Eurozone turned to stagnate in the April-June quarter, while German GDP declined 0.2%.
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Commodity Overview
Palladium Reaches 13-Year High while Other Precious Metals Fall
Gold fell for the second straight week, losing 0.37% in the period. The yellow metal saw its open interest reaching the lowest level in five years, which sent the December futures 0.1% lower on Monday. Nevertheless, this fall was short-lived as the tensions in Russia resurfaced and pushed the prices upwards, when Ukraine would not let Russia’s humanitarian aid in their territory.
Trade Pattern Idea
NZD/CAD Emerging Pattern: Falling Wedge
The falling wedge pattern on an hourly chart pair has been formed in the middle of the previous week. >>

Weekly XAU/USD Emerging Pattern: Triangle
One can see the outlines of a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart of XAU/USD. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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