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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 01-08-2014 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 01/08/2014 07:46
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
12:00 GMT Dukascopy Research Webinar. >>
1. Special Guest DocDow discusses Main principles of Capitalism in America
2. Argentina's default
3. Market Research on EUR
4. Trade Pattern Idea
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"This is really a blending of several geopolitical themes that are driving that risk-off trade."
- Clearpool Group (based on CNBC)
EUR/USD continues to grind lower, and it does not seem we are going to observe a pronounced bullish correction before the pair reaches the 2013 Q4 low at 1.33.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The euro zone inflation data is another one worth keeping an eye on."
- Craig Erlam, a market analyst at Alpari
On Wednesday statistical offices from Germany and Spain unveiled their inflation data that were not very promising. Stimulus that was announced in June by the ECB was expected to boost growth and inflation in the 18-nation bloc.
Expert Commentary
"Despite the recent decline in export prices, the NZD has remained stubbornly high, even appreciating further while dairy and forestry prices have fallen."
- Chris Tennent-Brown, Economist, on New Zealand’s diary prices and economy
The strong New Zealand dairy production season, along with rising European and US supply, is putting continued downward pressure on global dairy prices. >>
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Press Review
Economy
China Manufacturing Data Point to Rebound in Growth
Two gauges of manufacturing activity in China picked up in July, adding to signs that economic growth is recovering as the government's stimulus program takes effect.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: GBP
In terms of rapid value changes, the Kiwi was the most conspicuous currency of the period, as it fell sharply after RBNZ cash rate decision on Wednesday, causing its index to finish the period with a 1.42% loss over the base value. The best performers of the period were the Aussie, the Swedish krona, and the Greenback.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
VIDEO version
June’s findings of Dukascopy Sentiment Index survey revealed that professors were particularly upbeat about the long term economic prospects. Europe enjoyed the biggest gain of confidence, with the corresponding index surging 0.12 points to the highest level this year.
Global Stock Market Review
European shares rebound amid upbeat earnings reports
European stock markets closed mostly lower on Friday amid growing concerns over the impact tougher sanctions against Russia would have on Europe.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals End Lower Despite Friday’s Gains
Gold started the week on a positive note, yet heading lower for the next three trading days. The yellow metal fell to its lowest level in a month on Thursday when it closed the session at $1,290.80, as upbeat data on the U.S. economy and stronger greenback curbed demand for the safe-haven asset.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/RUB Emerging Pattern: Rising Wedge
There is a small but potentially reliable bullish channel forming on the hourly chart of USD/PLN. >>

Weekly GBP/NZD Emerging Pattern: Triangle
Since the second half of 2013 and until now GBP/NZD has been largely trading between 1.90 and 2.03. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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