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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 19-09-2014 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 19/09/2014 15:41
Community Forecasts
Community member rokasltu on EUR/USD
"The Euro/Dollar currency pair traded in a mixed environment during the previous trading week, as both opening level on Monday and closing level on Friday were almost equal. However, we could observe some important moves at some points of time. With the opening trading level of 1.2945, the single currency dropped down to 1.2859 on Tuesday, but managed to rebound the same day."
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY
"We have had more clients coming to us after the ECB meeting asking for credit-linked products in U.S. dollars, even if tied to European corporate debt."
- Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg (based on Bloomberg)
In general, this week has been positive for EUR/JPY bulls, as most likely the pair will post a second straight weekly gain. However, today the pair tested the 141 level, by doing that it proved that it is not ready to trade around these levels as it dropped below the 140 mark afterwards. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
USD
Labour market in the United States is showing more signs of improvement, as claims for unemployment benefits in the country dropped to 280,000 for the week ended September 12, the lowest level in two months. Therefore, the four-week average level for jobless claims fell to just below 300,000 level. Moreover, the total number of people, who receive benefits, plunged to seven-year low of 2.43 million.
Expert Commentary
"I would say this situation is being seen by the Fed as well, since it is getting more dovish."
- Douglas C Borthwick, Managing director/Head:FX, on the US economy and USD
There has been a slew of positive economic data out of the U.S., with GDP growing 4.2% in the second quarter and the Dollar has recently been strengthening versus its major counterparts. Taking this into account, can we finally say that the U.S. economy is now back to normal? >>
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Press Review
Edward Hugh
Does Abenomics Work? – The Doubts Grow
Is something in the air? Do I detect a change in consensus on the way things are going in Japan?
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
The EUR Index was steadily growing after its slump over the ECB’s rate cut on September 4, but this week seemed to see its long recovery come to a halt. The single currency posted loses against four of its observed peers and came at a tie with the Greenback, thus outweighing only the yen, the Aussie, and the Kiwi.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
August was full of economic events from all around the globe which definitely have had an impact on professors’ perception of economic situation in the world. Experts’ six-month economic outlook continued its downward trend, reaching the lowest level since September 2013. In contrast, longer term sentiment index rebounded from the 12-month low reached in July, pointing to renewed optimism in the world economic strength three years from now.
Global Stock Market Review
European shares dropped as quarterly gain is erased
European stock market traded in a red zone during the last trading week ended September 12. Fundamental data from the Eurozone and Britain was mixed in the reported time period, meaning that the influence on the equity market was less significant than some weeks before.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Retreat as They Are Losing Their Allure
Gold prolonged its retreat last week, as it reached a 8-month low at the Friday’s close. The yellow metal already started the week with a decline, as it opened 1% below September 5th closing level. The main catalyst for bullion’s losses were the speculation that the Fed will raise U.S. interest rates sooner than expected, thus the metal could lose its allure as a hedge against the inflation.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/TRY Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
The bullish channel with distinctive high quality and magnitude levels has been created by Dollar/Turkish Lira currency cross. >>

Weekly EUR/NZD Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
Due to a dense supply area between 1.70 and 1.73 EUR/NZD was unable to extend the April-June recovery last year. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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