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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 19-12-2014 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 19/12/2014 16:48
Community Forecasts
Community member NagarajaAdiga on USD/JPY
"This pair indeed has formed a bearish engulfing pattern, which is also expected to lose about 150 pips and may close around 117 zone.”
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
USD/CAD
"The test for Canada will be if we get soft data at the same time the U.S. data ... remains strong. Then it's going to put the divergence between the two central banks in a bit of a spotlight.”
- RBC Capital Markets (based on Reuters)
USD/CAD seems to be entering a period of correction, after touching the highest level this year at 1.1675.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Business morale among German top executives improved in December, reinforcing the view that Europe's number one economy is on course to pick up in the final quarter of the year after narrowly avoiding a recession in the three months through September.
Expert Commentary
"If the risks that we currently have for Greece will not materialize, then it would improve confidence in the Euro and thus strengthen its exchange rate."
- Christian Henning Schulz, Senior Economist at Berenberg Bank , on Euro
The Euro is certainly under a little pressure against the Dollar, due to the very likely decision of the ECB to increase bond purchasing including sovereign and corporate bonds, while at the same time the Fed is thinking about tightening policy at some stage.>>
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Press Review
BBC News
Anti-trade deal protest at EU falls on deaf ears
Booming firecrackers, acrid smoke from burning bales of hay, and tractors blocked the roads outside the European Commission in Brussels, where more than 1,000 demonstrators vented their anger at the EU.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
Very high volatility levels were seen through the week, especially on Tuesday.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
October’s release of Dukascopy Sentiment Index report shows that professors around the world remain pat on the global sentiment, as the corresponding short and long-term gauges were unchanged from the previous month.
Global Stock Market Review
American stocks traded lower due to fall in oil prices
In course of the previous working week, all major US indexes fell slightly.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Reverse Losses on US Dollar and Equity Decline
Gold and Silver added solid 2.7% and 4.91%, respectively, to its value in the week from 8th to 12th of December, as equities declined.
Trade Pattern Idea
AUD/USD 1H Chart: Channel Down
The Australian currency has been in a decline phase versus the American dollar already for a long period of time, which led to formation of the bearish channel on an hourly chart in the beginning of November. >>

USD/CAD 4H Chart: Channel Up
At the moment the USD/CAD currency cross is testing the lower boundary of the bullish channel, which was reached a couple of hours ago. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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