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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 20-10-2014 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 20/10/2014 07:41
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
11:00 GMT Dukascopy Community member "llolor" on "The weekly economic calendar at a glance : 20 - 24 October". >>
Dukascopy Community member "llolor" obtained the 2nd place in September Article Contest. "llolor" will briefly discuss his article and going to look at the weekly economic calendar at a glance : 20 - 24 October 2014.
12:00 GMT Dukascopy Research Webinar. >>
1. Economic Data release: Canadian Wholesale Sales m/m
2. Dukascopy Weekly Stock Overview
3. Technical Analysis: Trade Pattern Idea.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
"The broader portfolio flow taking place over time was one of the driving forces that took the euro higher and dollar lower, and now the trend is starting to shift."
- Morgan Stanley (based on Bloomberg)
Although there is an immediate resistance level at 1.2786, represented by the monthly pivot point, the supply between 1.29 and 1.2850 is more likely to act as a ceiling this week. If the price approaches this area, we will expect a strong sell-off. Eventually the European currency should erode the support at 1.2750 (weekly PP and 2013 low) in order to open a path towards this year’s lowest value at 1.25 and challenge it.    
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
"This would run counter to everything we have strived to achieve in banking regulation over the last years."
- Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank President
Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics office, revised the Euro zone’s Q1 and Q2 growth, as it started to use new statistical methodology.
Expert Commentary
"The main reason which stands behind a sharp decline in the Ruble is simply the fall of liquidity on domestic financial markets."
- Oleg Kouzmin, Economist at Renaissance Capital, on Russian economy and RUB
In our view, a weaker Russian currency brings more gains to the overall economy, supporting the country during such ambiguous times. >>
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Press Review
Markets are still terrified by the eurozone – and rightly so
Who do you want to believe, the cautious optimists who think the current rout in financial markets, especially stock markets, is just the sort of “correction” that happens in the middle of any recovery and that the US, at least, is in decent economic shape?
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
Euro was amongst the best performing currencies in the period. It came basically at par with the Swedish currency and the Kiwi and was surpassed only by the Japanese Yen and Swissy. However, all the other currency indices were outperformed by the Euro rather significantly, as they lagged at least 0.7% behind the Europe’s shared currency.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
September release
September’s release of Dukascopy Sentiment Index report shows that professors around the world remain pat on the global sentiment, as the corresponding short and long-term gauges were unchanged from the previous month. The index stayed at 0.59 and 0.69 for the six-month and three-year outlooks, respectively.
Global Stock Market Review
US equity markets dropped with energy losing the most
American equity market followed its European counterparts during the previous trading week, as it mostly moved in the red zone. Although the U.S. was not rich on fundamental data last week, the domestic market was mainly affected by declining oil prices, which led to sell-offs among companies of the energy sector.
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Commodity Overview
Industrial Metals Mixed on IMF Forecast and Weaker Dollar
Aluminum started the week off on the right foot, as it bounced above the $1900 mark. The most important happenings in the week from 6th to 10th October were Alcoa Inc. earnings report and the LME appeal court ruling in London that cleared the way for the LME to impose new rules at its warehouses.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/SGD Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
When on 23rd of July the USD/SGD cross reached this year’s low at 1.2366 the down-trend ended. >>

Weekly EUR/SEK Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
At the very end of September the currency pair broke the up-trend it has been forming since the first half of 2013 to the downside. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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