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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 21-11-2014 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 21/11/2014 16:38
Community Forecasts
Community member Jignesh on USD/JPY
“The USD looks like it may pull back and continue the momentum from last week.”
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
"Draghi is continuing to apply this level of urgency about needing to boost inflation and the implication of that, once again, may be that he is a proponent of potentially using full-blown quantitative easing."
-Rabobank International (based on Bloomberg)
The Euro continued to outperform the Japanese Yen heavily for the first four days of the week; however, today the pair has dropped and almost all of this week’s gains have been reversed.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Activity in both manufacturing and services sectors of the Euro zone slowed in November, adding to concerns the Euro bloc’s economy risks a renewed slowdown.
Expert Commentary
"We believe the further increase in the consumption tax is probably going to be delayed, which generally is a bit more positive for Japanese equity market sentiment."
- Jonathan Cavenagh, Currency strategist at Westpac, on Japan economy development
From my point of view, the risk shows price hike or tax increase gets delayed beyond the first half of the next year. I believe it clearly had more adverse impact on the economy. >>
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Press Review
Dan Steinbock
Japan’s Third Lost Decade Begins
Japan’s recession is not paving the way for sustained growth. It is prolonging new debt and liquidity and thus deteriorating fiscal discipline.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
This has been a very strong period for the Euro, as the currency gained 0.7% and was among the best performers with the Canadian Dollar, Swedish currency and Swiss Franc. While a clear leader in the negative sense was the Japanese Yen that continued to underperform against all of the currencies for the third straight week, it lost around 2% of its value.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
October’s release of Dukascopy Sentiment Index report shows that professors around the world remain pat on the global sentiment, as the corresponding short and long-term gauges were unchanged from the previous month.
Global Stock Market Review
Europe’s faltering growth
Equity market in Europe traded in a mixed environment, mostly declining over last five trading days. The industrial production in the Eurozone added 0.6% in September, comparing to a negative growth of 1.4% in a month earlier.
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Commodity Overview
Industrial Metals Slide on Disappointing Chinese Data
Aluminum was little changed through the last week by losing 0.05% from its value. The key event that impacted its price were disappointing Chinese and British manufacturing data at the beginning of the week, and the US jobs data at the end of the week.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/PLN 4H Chart: Channel Up
The current outlook on USD/PLN is strongly bullish.The currency pair has just slid down to a major demand area at 3.3462, and it is now in a good position to update November maximum. >>

GBP/NZD 4H Chart: Channel Down
Being unable to overcome the resistance between 2.08 and 2.105 during the last two months, the bulls gave up, which led to formation of a bearish channel. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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