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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 19-12-2014 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 19/12/2014 09:14
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
12:00 GMT Dukascopy Research webinar. >>
1. Fun Friday Quiz on Top News and Headlines
2. Market Research
3. Technical Analysis: Trade Pattern Idea.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD consolidates below 1.23
"That the Bundesbank may object to sovereign-bond purchases is largely taken for granted by markets."
- Berenberg Bank (based on Bloomberg)
EUR/USD pair continued to trade under the bearish pressure, as they pushed the cross below 1.23. At the moment the only support before the 2014 low is represented by a Bollinger band at 1.2255, which is not supposed to create major problems for pair's bears. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
Business morale among German executives improves in December
"German business confidence confirmed the decent rebound of the economy in the final quarter of the year."
- Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING
Business morale among German top executives improved in December, reinforcing the view that Europe's number one economy is on course to pick up in the final quarter of the year after narrowly avoiding a recession in the three months through September.
Expert Commentary
"The prospects for growth as well as for productive investment, which is highly correlated with the performance of equity market, remain positive."
- Inna Mufteeva, US Economist at Natixis, on US economy and greenback
As for the economic development, I would mostly agree with the idea that it should remain rather positive and favourable for the US. The employment figures have proved to be solid and above expectations. The GDP growth is also expected to remain above its potential for the rest of the year and for the 2015. >>
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Press Review
Top Videos
BOJ meeting was a 'non-event': UOB
Alvin Liew, Senior Economist at UOB, says the BOJ was unlikely to do more after massive stimulus in October. He later discusses possible actions that the central bank could take next year.
Market Research
Currency Index and Volatility: JPY
The JPY Index was located well above the main baseline for the whole time period between December 10 and December 16, as the currency registered the fastest weekly advance among all majors.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
November release
November was full of economic news which shaped economic sentiment of businesses and consumers all over the globe. While some economies, including the US and UK, have been expanding at full speed, others, such as the Euro zone, Japan, and China raise concerns over their ability to sustain growth and ensure there is no negative spillover effect on other economies.
Global Stock Market Review
Japan’s share market plunged amid weak GDP data
Japanese shares performed in the most successful way among major financial markets during December 8—12 trading week. Therefore, weekly gains were decreased to minimal, even though Japan’s economy contracted more than estimated in the third quarter, shrinking 1.9% on the annual basis. Capital spending fell and private consumption was weak too.
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Commodity Overview
Energy Futures Slump Continues as South Arabia Question Need of Cut
WTI oil has lost around 25% of its value during the last three trading weeks and it is a substantial drop; moreover, the price has declined below $60 a barrel mark. The main catalysts through the week was the US Energy Information Administration’s price cut by $15 a barrel, after OPEC’s decision to maintain output as North American oil output climbs, also amid concerns that money managers (funds) bet too much on increasing prices.
Trade Pattern Idea
GBP/AUD Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
The British currency similarly to most of the other currencies has outperformed the Aussie in the last weeks. >>

Weekly USD/TRY Emerging Pattern: Triangle
USD/TRY has broken out of the major symmetrical triangle to the upside after trading between two converging trend-lines for 21 months. >>
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Economic Research

Economic Research on Forecasting High and Low Prices: Cointegration
In this research we take a closer look at the idea of forecasting high and low prices through their linear combination – or, in other words, by using the notion of cointegration.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 08:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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