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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 25-11-2014 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 25/11/2014 17:16
Community Forecasts
Community member rokasltu on EUR/USD
“Despite the fact the at the end of the last week EUR/USD dropped sharply, 1.25 level is still in sight.”
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
"There was a signal from policy makers that they are concerned about the yen weakness and this is not the pace they wanted to see. The yen is ripe for correction, and any further decline from here may slow."
-Morgan Stanley (based on Bloomberg)
The Euro/Yen cross has failed to consolidate above the 147 mark and now it is trading near the weekly PP at 146.56.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
People’s Bank of China and the Chinese government are ready to slash interest rates again as well as loosing lending restrictions, as they are getting increasingly concerned that falling prices might prompt a surge in debt defaults, business failures and job losses.
Expert Commentary
"The Bank of Japan is going to be pumping a lot of liquidity into the system that should naturally be biasing the Yen weaker against other currencies."
- Jonathan Cavenagh, Currency strategist at Westpac, on Yen
I believe there are two predominant drivers for the Yen. The first thing is the domestic situation in Japan, since the BoJ is maintaining a very accommodating monetary policy stance: its balance sheet is already at 57% of GDP, and is going to grow larger from where it is. >>
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Press Review
Fx Street
EUR/USD unmotivated around 1.2430
The shared currency remains locked with a very narrow range on Tuesday, withEUR/USD gyrating around the 1.2430 area.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The overall level of the USD volatility has fallen palpably at the end of October and still has not returned to higher levels.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
October’s release of Dukascopy Sentiment Index report shows that professors around the world remain pat on the global sentiment, as the corresponding short and long-term gauges were unchanged from the previous month.
Global Stock Market Review
Europe’s faltering growth
Equity market in Europe traded in a mixed environment, mostly declining over last five trading days. The industrial production in the Eurozone added 0.6% in September, comparing to a negative growth of 1.4% in a month earlier.
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Commodity Overview
Industrial Metals Slide on Disappointing Chinese Data
Aluminum was little changed through the last week by losing 0.05% from its value. The key event that impacted its price were disappointing Chinese and British manufacturing data at the beginning of the week, and the US jobs data at the end of the week.
Trade Pattern Idea
NZD/USD 1H Chart: Triangle
Following a confirmation of the triangle pattern, which started emerging on a hourly chart in the end of October, the Kiwi is in a good position to lose value against the Greenback. >>

EUR/NZD 4H Chart: Falling Wedge
The single currency has just neared the pattern’s resistance, which is located at 1.5966. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 16:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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