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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 31-07-2014 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 31/07/2014 07:23
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
Today
14:00 GMT Visual JForex in Russian. >>
 
15:30 GMT JForex in English. >>
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"We remain constructive on the USD and continue to run long USD/JPY and short EUR/USD recommendations."
- Barclays (based on CNBC)
Despite the strong downward momentum the support at 1.3383/69 managed to withstand the attack of the bears yesterday.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"There has been some volatility in German inflation readings in May and June but our economists argue that the underlying picture has remained relatively stable."
- BNP Paribas
On the back of stronger than expected growth in the world’s largest economy, the most traded currency pair dipped below 1.34–mark.
Expert Commentary
"Despite the recent decline in export prices, the NZD has remained stubbornly high, even appreciating further while dairy and forestry prices have fallen."
- Chris Tennent-Brown, Economist, on New Zealand’s diary prices and economy
The strong New Zealand dairy production season, along with rising European and US supply, is putting continued downward pressure on global dairy prices. >>
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Press Review
Economy
Japan's Wage Growth Slows in June
Growth in nominal wages in Japan slowed for the second straight month in June, as a much hoped-for boost from summer bonuses has yet to show up in workers' paychecks.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: GBP
In terms of rapid value changes, the Kiwi was the most conspicuous currency of the period, as it fell sharply after RBNZ cash rate decision on Wednesday, causing its index to finish the period with a 1.42% loss over the base value. The best performers of the period were the Aussie, the Swedish krona, and the Greenback.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
VIDEO version
June’s findings of Dukascopy Sentiment Index survey revealed that professors were particularly upbeat about the long term economic prospects. Europe enjoyed the biggest gain of confidence, with the corresponding index surging 0.12 points to the highest level this year.
Global Stock Market Review
European shares rebound amid upbeat earnings reports
European stock markets closed mostly lower on Friday amid growing concerns over the impact tougher sanctions against Russia would have on Europe.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals End Lower Despite Friday’s Gains
Gold started the week on a positive note, yet heading lower for the next three trading days. The yellow metal fell to its lowest level in a month on Thursday when it closed the session at $1,290.80, as upbeat data on the U.S. economy and stronger greenback curbed demand for the safe-haven asset.
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/NOK Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
A three-day climb of USD/NOK performed inside a bullish channel pushed the pair to a six-month high of 6.2811 Jul 30. >>

Weekly GBP/NZD Emerging Pattern: Triangle
Since the second half of 2013 and until now GBP/NZD has been largely trading between 1.90 and 2.03. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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