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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 30-10-2014 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 30/10/2014 08:36
Dukascopy Forex Community TV
08:55 GMT  Economic Data Release on German Unemployment Change. >>
The Dukascopy Research Team covers the fundamentals and technicals on the economic data release. Discussion of the historical data, potential trading strategies and projection of the possible market reaction.
12:30 GMT  Economic Data Release on US GDP Advance q/q. >>
The Dukascopy Research Team covers the fundamentals and technicals on the economic data release. Discussion of the historical data, potential trading strategies and projection of the possible market reaction.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD drops as Fed ends QE
"Maybe we brought forward the (first rate) hike a month or two from where it was yesterday."
- CRT Capital (based on CNBC)
The single currency dropped against the US Dollar for the first time in four days yesterday, as the Fed announced the end of its stimulus program. The pair neared a considerable support at 1.2594, represented by the weekly S1 and Bollinger band. If case of successful testing, the Euro is likely to slump down to 2014 low below 1.25 in the medium-term. At the same time, technical indicators are neutral in the short-term, while weekly studies suggest the bearish scenario for this currency cross.
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
"I want to welcome the fact that these member states have responded constructively to our concerns."
- Jyrki Katainen, EU Economic Affairs Commissioner
The European Commission said it would approve 2015 French and Italian budget, after the countries made last-minute improvements to spending plans. French Finance Minister Michel Sapin assured that he would slash 3.6-3.7 billion euros from France’s next year budget to meet EU requirements, while Italy also promised to revise its 2015 budget, cutting its deficit goal to 2.6% of GDP from 2.9% after the announcement of its 4.5 billion euros adjustment.
Expert Commentary
"To my mind, there is a serious risk that the Swiss Franc could appreciate out of hand, as it did a few years ago."
- Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentina SA on Swiss economy
We have got the EUR/CHF trading about where it is now at the end of the year. So we are looking for the floor to survive, therefore we have 1.21 for the end of 2014 and 1.2450 for the end of 2015. Our base case scenario is that the SNB is able to massage a higher spot rate over the course of the next year, and they could successfully defend the floor. >>
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Press Review
Regulating capital flows at both ends
The boom-bust cycles in cross-border capital flows during and after the Global Financial Crisis have kindled debates on the management of capital flows to emerging markets.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: GBP
The British currency traded in a rather calm environment during the October 22-29 time period, even though sometimes it managed to either gain strong value or decline considerably.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
September release
September’s release of Dukascopy Sentiment Index report shows that professors around the world remain pat on the global sentiment, as the corresponding short and long-term gauges were unchanged from the previous month. The index stayed at 0.59 and 0.69 for the six-month and three-year outlooks, respectively.
Global Stock Market Review
European stock markets surged during October 20-24 week
Equity market in Europe jumped considerably during the previous trading week, as positive fundamental data influenced stock markets in a bullish way, pushing it to trade in the green zone. Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI increased last month, even despite negative expectations; however, French manufacturing and services sectors slipped further.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Decline Slightly on US Interest Rate Speculation
Gold’s advance has been halted, after rising in value for two straight weeks, with a slight 0.58% retreat. On Monday the metal continued its previous success by climbing higher on bets that the Fed will delay raising US interest rates on global economic uncertainty. Moreover; Tuesday came with new highs, namely a five-week high at $1,251.7 an ounce, as traders pushed back forecasts for a rate increase by the Fed.
Trade Pattern Idea
GBP/AUD Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
After reaching the highest level since March on 1st of October at 1.8686, the GBP/AUD cross started to decline. >>

Weekly XAU/USD Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
Since XAU/USD approached 1,400 in March, the bears have been in control of the market—the price has declined beneath the 1,250 level. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick. In our new research we try and compare a few of the most popular techniques, and see if they are in fact suitable for forecasting currency exchange rates.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 08:30 GMT.
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This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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