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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 29-08-2014 - Afternoon

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 29/08/2014 16:01
Community Forecasts
Community member geula4x on EUR/USD
"EUR/USD seems to be very bearish on the daily chart. Price has finally broken below 1.3330. The area has held as support between August 6th till August 18th. This previous support area is now expected to hold as a resistance on any pullback. Next support lies around 1.3100 round number, which held price at September 5th and 6th."
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY
"Weaker inflation, even if expected, will allow the ECB to keep talking dovishly and holding out that prospect of more easing."
- IG Securities (based on Reuters)
If this week in general has not been good for the European currency, then at least today EUR/JPY managed to reverse some of this week’s losses. 
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
USD
The U.S Department of Labor's latest report indicates that the number of jobless claims have slightly decreased during seven-day period, nonetheless surpassing experts’ forecast. The number of jobless claims has decreased from 299,000 down to 298,000, helping push the eight-week average for new claims to below 300,000 for the first time since April 2006, well before the onset of the recession.
Expert Commentary
"We have already seen that net Chinese imports of gold from Hong Kong have dropped during the last few months with regards of ending gold demand."
- Bernard Dahdah, Precious metals analyst, on the gold
Considering the prolonged tensions over Ukraine and signs of improving U.S. economy, how would you evaluate the current performance of gold? >>
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Press Review
WBP online
Italy in red numbers: Q2 GDP
The euro area's third largest economy contracted both on a quarterly and an annual basis in the April to June period, Istat said on Friday in its final reading, in line with the first estimate.
Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
The EUR Index spent the whole period below the baseline and held steadily among the worst three performers. In this regard, the index ended the period second, deepening the loses of the past periods with a –0.69% weekly change.
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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
July Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index findings appeared to be the most pessimistic. The report revealed that while short-term global economic sentiment index fell moderately, three-year index plummeted by 0.12 points, the biggest decline since records began. This sharp fall may be attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as uneven economic picture in the world. On top of that, all the regions also posted falls in their both short and long term economic outlook.
Global Stock Market Review
European stocks grow as political tensions over Ukraine decline
Equity market in Europe kept growing during the previous trading week, as all biggest markets posted a weekly increase in value. Companies’ shares were strongly influenced by weakening manufacturing sector in the single currency area, while PMI Index in France dropped to 46.5 points. Services industry, however, remains stable with both Germany and France showing an advance in activity.
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals Retreat on U.S. Interest Rate Speculations
Gold declined for a third consecutive week, losing 1.99% in the period. The metal fell to the lowest level in two months on U.S. interest rate hike speculation as that would reduce the allure of the yellow metal as an alternative investment. According to minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, many U.S. lawmakers increased the possibility of raising rates sooner than expected.
Trade Pattern Idea
EUR/SGD Emerging Pattern: Falling Wedge
EUR/SGD topped out near 1.77 in March, and since then have been in a distinct down-trend. >>

Weekly EUR/NOK Emerging Pattern: Double Top
Given that EUR/NOK is currently forming a double top pattern, there is a high possibility of a strong sell-off once the currency pair passes the neck-line at 8.08. >>
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Economic Research

Forecasting Models for Exchange Rate
The science of prognostics has been going through a rapid and fruitful development in the past decades, with various forecasting methods, procedures and approaches flooding the economic world. It is estimated that there are more than 100 prediction methods, and sometimes the diversity makes it difficult to choose the one that would do the trick.
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min and 1H time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 15:30 GMT.
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

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