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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 21-05-2012 - Morning
| Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report Published: 21/05/2012 09:20 | |
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Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone and the negative consequences from that are prevailing"- Ben Kwong, KGI Asia European stocks edged lower after Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating to ‘CCC’, implying that the country is vulnerable and highly dependent on favourable economic conditions to fulfill its financial obligations. USD
"If there were scope to do another twist of some type it would be prudent to consider it, especially in the scenario where things are worse and the Fed feels like it needs to move"- Nathan Sheets, Citigroup Inc. Fed policymakers might potentially launch another round of Operation Twist rather than a direct asset purchases in case of increased risks or further weakening of the US economy. GBP
"We must work together to give the world economy the one big stimulus that would really make a difference: an expansion of trade freedoms"- David Cameron, the UK Prime Minister David Cameron, the UK Prime Minister, believes that breaking down trade barriers would be the best catalyst for the global economic recovery. CHF "Until the upcoming elections in Greece on June 17, uncertainty and hence the strong risk aversion will remain. Politics still set the agenda for the markets" - Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank AG Swiss stocks fell, heading for their biggest weekly drop since November, as industrial goods and services companies slumped amid signs of slowing growth in China and as Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Spanish lenders. JPY "There is reconstruction demand and the economy is slowly recovering" - monthly report of the Japan’s Cabinet Office Following gradual expansion of exports and increase of private consumption, Japan’s government improved the outlook, expecting further improvement of economic conditions, as recently suggested by accelerating advancement of the gross domestic product. |
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"We are entering a consolidation phase with regard to the euro. It will not be known for a while whether Greece will stay in the euro or not with Greek election a few weeks away"- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (based on CNBC) The currency couple is presently undergoing a bullish correction following its precipitous fall from a downtrend resistance at 1.3252. GBP/USD
"We are looking for more risk-off conditions with the dollar streaking ahead"- Caxton FX (based on Reuters) The Cable is currently recovering, following its recent encounter with a support at 1.5784 (200 day SMA). USD/JPY
"If the BOJ takes no new steps, the yen may rise briefly on disappointment among some traders"- UBS (based on WSJ) USD/JPY is consolidating ahead of 78.86 (200 day SMA), implying the increasing possibility of retesting a downtrend resistance that has blocked the road towards 82.91. USD/CHF
"The Swiss central bank’s defense of the franc’s currency ceiling against the euro may cause considerable damage to the nation’s economy"- former chief executive officer of UBS AG (based on Bloomberg) In accordance with expectations, initial attempt to break through 0.9507 has failed, leading to a sell-off down to 0.9394, just below a weekly pivot point. |
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Expert Commentary
"There is no reason to buy the Yen for the time being"
Masafumi Yamamoto, Chief Currency Strategist at Barclays Bank, on the Yen. >>"We are now expecting AUD/USD at the year end at around 97, a continued move below parity" "If Greece left the Eurozone, the Eurozone would become more stable"
Lutz Karpowitz, Senior Currency Strategist at Commerzbank, on Greece exit from the Eurozone. >> |
Press Review
Europe
Pressure mounts on a reluctant ECB to save euroThe euro. It was all supposed to be very simple. “One size fits all!” — for the good of Europe and the world. But it’s a riddle wrapped in a mystery cloaked in an imbroglio. USA
Obama: Eurozone 'must focus on jobs and growth'US President Barack Obama has said there is an "emerging consensus" that European countries must now focus on jobs and growth. Asia & Pacific
Wen Growth Pledge Spurs Speculation Of China StimulusUS President Barack Obama has said there is an "emerging consensus" that European countries must now focus on jobs and growth. |
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
Throughout the last five trading days (May 11 - May 17) the average value of the Swiss Franc in the market, represented by its respective currency index, proved to be generally unsusceptible to the news and events observed within this report, losing only 0.25% of its worth within the studied period. |
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
The current and the three-year global economic sentiment indices deteriorated slightly in April to 0.49 and 0.64 points respectively. The sixmonth economic sentiment index improved to 0.54 from 0.52 in March, according to a poll conducted by Dukascopy Bank SA.
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Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
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Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals rallied on Thursday amid hopes for more loosening policies from the Fed after Philadelphia’s manufacturing activity posted a contraction in May.Industrial Metals
Industrial metals advanced on Thursday despite negative economic data from the US and the Euro Zone.Energy
Energy markets tumbled on Thursday along with high risk-aversion among investors in view of the economic and political instability in the Euro Zone.Agriculture
Agricultural commodities rocketed on Thursday amid unfavorable weather conditions in the top-growing regions worldwide. |
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Trade Pattern Idea
USD/CHF Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
USD/CHF broke its resistance level at 0.9250 forming a channel up pattern on the 4H chart. The pattern has 64% quality with 75% magnitude in a 55-bar period. The price rebounded from the SMA200 indicator at 0.9116, then soared to the resistance level at 0.9470 and slowed near the 0.9481 level. Present bias on the 4H and daily timeframes is bullish, which leads to an uptrend extension. SMA200 started to increase after the pair had touched at the 0.9116 level, which supports the idea of a short-term increase. Bullish traders might focus their attention on the key level at 0.9500. If the price breaches this level, the initial target for long traders could be around 0.9576 where the five-month high stands. |
Economic Research
Commodity currency: Norwegian Krone
The Dukascopy Bank research department presents the final part of its research on commodity currencies. In the current issue we consider commodity sectors’ influence on Norwegian krone exchange rates. Norway is the second largest non-OPEC oil exporter, and energy products make up more than 50% of its exports. It gives us an opportunity to establish whether the exports’ share can be named as one of the relationship-defining factors. |
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| Disclaimer: This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. |
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