- Pending orders in 100-pip range from the current market price are negative (36% bullish / 64% bearish)
- In case the pair increases in price, the closest resistance for it is located at 1.1727
- The downward movement is possible as well, while for that purpose the closest support is placed at 1.1516
- Upcoming events on January 17-19: Eurozone Current Account (Nov)
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Meanwhile, the Euro zone' trade surplus widened in November, as exports rose, while imports dropped, amid a weaker Euro and falling oil prices that are softening the impact of a precipitous decline in sales to Russia. Unadjusted for seasonal swings, exports to the rest of the world climbed 1% and imports declined 2%, swelling the currency bloc's trade surplus to 20 billion euros compared with 16.5 billion euros in November 2013, Eurostat said. On month-on-month basis, exports were up 0.2%.
A separate report showed that the Euro zone's number one economy considerably accelerated its annual economic growth over the previous year. Nevertheless, the overall pace of growth remained below the booming recovery years of 2010 and 2011. German gross domestic product expanded 1.5% over 2014 on an annual basis, more than the 0.1% growth seen a year ago, the Federal Statistical Office said.
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No data awaited on Monday except Eurozone current account
Monday of Jan 19-23 week is not going supposed to bring any important fundamental news which are likely to drive the EUR/USD currency pair as well as other EUR and USD crosses. Being more precise, only the Eurozone's current account data for November is forecasted to be released on January 19. From another side, the United States have a bank holiday as the country celebrates the Martin Luther King Jr. Day; therefore, no data from North America is expected to be published on Monday or during the weekend.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD's drop to continue in the long-term
The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD currency pair is remaining bearish both in short and long-term. All market attention in the upcoming two weeks will be paid to the ECB's meeting on January 22 and Greek parliamentary elections on January 25. The EUR/USD cross has recently managed to reach the lowest point of the year 2005 at 1.1639. Generally, in January the pair continued declining well-below the 1.20 major level. Taking into account the present situation and bearish outlook for the Euro, the pair is likely to drop down to 1.15 towards the end of this month, even though a short-term rebound back up to 1.17-1.18 is still possible. Moreover, analysts suggest that in case the Eurozone's QE takes place later this year the single currency may fall further and trade towards 1.10.Daily chart
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Following a shocking decision of the Swiss National Bank to abandon the 1.20 limit of EUR/CHF, the EUR/USD pair crashed noticeably on Thursday to reach the lowest level in nine years. The pair fell below the 2005 low and reached a daily low at 1.1567. Two demand areas, in turn, failed to limit the Euro's drop, including one around 1.1730 and second at 1.1640. At the same time, we may see a rebound of the shared currency in the short-term up to 1.17, while market prepares itself for the ECB meeting next Thursday.
Hourly chart
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Opened positions remain slightly bullish on EUR/USD
Meanwhile, pending orders to acquire the single currency versus the US dollar are remaining bearish, even though volatility from day to day is high, as longs have only 36% of them at the moment (down 10% during last 24 hours). It implies that, in case the pair increases in price, in the medium-term bearish pressure may stop the pair from climbing further around the weekly S1 at 1.1737.
On the other hand, if the Euro declines, total losses may potentially extend down to the monthly S3 at 1.1466 in the foreseeable future.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community still expects Euro to decline against US dollar
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Ticker, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bearish outlook towards the common currency by saying that the EUR/USD currency pair will decline due to potential quantitative easing measures of the ECB, totalled 500 billion euros, according to expectations. He also adds that the "Euro weakness is to continue this week (negative news help), US dollar is still on rise, while oil price drops till $45."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Dec 16 and Jan 16 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.20 by the end of April. Though the majority of participants, namely 52% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop down below this mark in ninety days. Alongside, 28% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.20 and 1.26 by the end of April of this year.
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