© Dukascopy Bank SA
The Cable was the most volatile currency pair during the last trading week, as upcoming independence referendum in Scotland is putting a lot of pressure on the British currency. The pair started a new week at 1.6214, just above the daily S1 at 1.6208.. At the same time, the Pound started an active negative tendency just after the market was opened. Besides the Scottish referendum, the GBP/USD cross was influenced by a record high trade deficit in the United Kingdom, which pushed the rate down to the weekly low at 1.6051. However, on mid-Wednesday the British currency began recovering and gained more than 220 pips in one day to hover at 1.6280 on Friday's evening. On the other hand, Dukascopy Community members predicted no changes in pair's performance, as votes were split equally between bulls and bears.
This week the Scottish independence referendum on Thursday will be the main driver for all Pound crosses, including the Cable. Moreover, the influence may come from inflation report in Britain on Tuesday and unemployment data a day after. From the American side, the Fed is holding an important meeting on Thursday, as it is potentially going to reveal dates of a long-awaited rate increase in the country. Nevertheless, Dukascopy traders became much more bullish on the GBP/USD's possible development, as 68.8% of them expect the pair to rise in value this week. The median forecast for September 19 went slightly down to reach the daily R1 at 1.6256. The bullish view and "no" vote in Scotland is considered by AdamFx42, who thinks that "After the Scottish referendum on the 17th - where in my opinion Scotland will say 'no' to independence, the bearish pressure will be off the GBP/USD and it will enjoy a swift move up."
© Dukascopy Bank SA