Community Forecasts for August 11-15: EUR/USD 1W Chart

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
During the previous week participants of Dukascopy Community Forecasts predicted the most traded currency pair to stay almost unchanged, trading around 1.3440. However, the trading week turned to be quite volatile due to some important fundamental data. On Tuesday, the better-than-expected growth in non-manufacturing sector of the United States and strong factory orders pushed the pair to trade below the daily S2 at 1.3362. Taking into consideration other fundamental data, the news from the Eurozone were mostly negative with positive data from the U.S. on the opposite side. Meanwhile, improved industrial production in France pushed the EUR/USD back to hover slightly below the 100-day SMA at 1.3432.

In the beginning of the current week, the pair was affected by extremely weak German economic sentiment, while in the upcoming days the influence may come from U.S. retail sales data on Wednesday and prelim GDP growth in Germany and France a day later. In general, any downturns of the currency pair should be well capped by the weekly S2 at 1.3290. 

It should be mentioned that only a minority of participants in the week's quiz expect the currency pair to trade at such a low level. The median forecast is located around the 1.3370, while the majority of traders predict the EUR/USD pair to trade in the range of 1.33-1.35. Market sentiment gives no clear signals for future movements of the pair, thus the fundamentals will mainly drive the pair in the nearest future. According to AdamFx42, "Slight pullback back up again seems logic after hitting the 1.333 lows last week. Probably the pair will drift around between 1.33 and 1.36 for a couple of months more."
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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