BoJ remains pat on policy, forecasts in focus

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"It's possible the sales tax will be a drag for a prolonged period as wage growth isn't catching up with inflation. July will be key for the BOJ to judge if additional stimulus is needed."
- Ma Ying-jeou, Hong Kong-born politician


With no surprises for markets, Japanese central bank remained pat on its monetary policy on Wednesday, signalling its confidence that inflation is on the track to hit Kuroda's inflation target. The Bank of Japan maintained the pace of its yearly expansion of the monetary base of between 60 and 70 trillion yen, or $683 billion. It has been one year since Haruhiko Kuroda implemented his bold steps to eliminate deflation, which has lasted for around 15 years in the world's third largest economy, by pledging to double the money supply over the next two years, to raise inflation expectations and significantly reduce the value of the domestic currency. These measures have already made a substantial contribution to the economy, as a gauge of consumer prices excluding most volatile prices stands around 1.3%, while the headline inflation measure fluctuates even closer to the official target.

While analysts from the Capital Economics believe it is only a matter of time before CPI start moderating and effects of the falling Yen begin to wane. They expect the BoJ to expand the stimulus programme in July, after the effects of the tax hike are gauged. Markets' focus is now turned to the semi-annual forecast on growth inflation. Any improvement in the assessment will damp expectations for additional easing any time soon.
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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