German outlook– bright or gloomy?

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"There should be only a minor negative impact if the current uncertainty about Ukraine's political future continues but there's no major military escalation"
-Timo Klein of IHS Global Insight 

The latest poll conducted by Reuters showed that Europe's largest economy will grow almost five times as fast this year as in the previous one. The findings echoes with the official estimates from the German government that were released earlier this week, showing the economy will post a 1.8% growth this year and accelerate to 2.0% in 2015, supported by strong domestic demand and low unemployment. German private consumption is projected to rise 1.3% this year, while exports will recover as well, posting a 5.5% surge, recovering from last year's sluggish growth. 

It is important to mention that all these projections are made with one remark– if only there is no major escalation of the standoff between the West and Russia over Ukraine. While Obama urges for more sanctions for Russia, cautious and pragmatic Angela Merkel is not in a hurry to inflict more pain on Russia. While during a series of frequent phone calls Merkel tried to defuse the Ukraine ongoing crisis, her efforts failed, and it seems that now she is ready to embrace sanctions the United States have been calling for. According to people familiar with the matter, Germany is now making plans for the next set of economic sanctions that will be more harmful to Russian business interests. A sound of cautious was noticed in one of Germany's largest business daily, Handelsblatt that warned the nation's leading economic associations fear the consequences of the latest event s

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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