Community Forecasts for March 10-14: EUR/USD 1W Chart

Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
On the back of optimistic comments from the European Central Bank and improved outlook for the 18-nation's bloc, the single currency skydived to a weekly R2 at 1.3915, the highest since November 2011. During the second half of the week the pair performed a 190-pip rally and therefore, it was not a surprise that this week the pair is moving downwards. However, most likely, it is just a correction before another sharp move to the north.
According to Dukascopy Community members, the most traded currency pair will hit 1.3870 this Friday, March 14. Though this level is slightly below the recent high, it is 90 pips higher than the last week's average price. Moreover, a slight majority of respondents are having bullish view on the pair, while 60% of all pending orders are placed to buy the single currency versus the greenback. While the pair has been moving upwards since July, in a shorter-term we can expect a sideways movement or a correction back to 1.37. This idea is supported by the fact 68% of opened positions are short, while 52% of orders in a 100-pip range are placed to sell the Euro against the buck. "Trend seems to be bullish and pointing towards a bullish break but if you look at volume bars you will notice that previous bullish candles bars where not backed with commensurate increase in activity. I believe that price may hesitate at first test of resistance this week and close below closing price this week," said trader Tinktank. 
From the perspective of fundamental analysis, the pair will most likely to lose some ground in the first half of the week, amid a lack of economic data releases. On Thursday and Friday, however, the U.S. retail sales, unemployment claims, producer prices and consumer sentiment will all shed some light on the further possible moves by the Federal Reserve. 

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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