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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 24-02-2012 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 24/02/2012 10:02
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Ifo index provides further evidence that the economic contraction at the end of last year was only a brief stopover"
- Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING Group
German business confidence improved more than expected in February, defying fears that the euro zone’s largest economy has slipped into recession.


USD
"[Unemployment claims] are  in line with recent U.S. data showing a gradually improving economic backdrop"
- Omer Esiner, a market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 351,000 thousand in the week ended  February 18 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.


GBP
"Beyond March, the mortgage market is likely to click back into its default mode of flat"
- William Hunter of Hunter Wealth Management 
The number of approved mortgages rose to 38.1 thousand in January, the highest in two years, from 36.6 thousand in December, shows the data published by the British Banker's Association on Thursday.

CHF
"It’s not surprising to see a sideways movement [in stocks] right now, because we had a decent run in the last five to six weeks"
- Konstantin Giantiroglou, head of investment advisory at Neue Aargauer Bank AG
Swiss stocks rose slightly on Thursday after German business climate improved unexpectedly.

JPY
"A weaker yen lifts sentiment, but investors remain cautious about a possible rebound"
- Kazuyuki Terao, chief investment officer of RCM Japan Co.
Japanese stocks rose for a second day on Thursday as the Yen declined to its lowest versus the Greenback in seven months, boosting the outlook for exporters.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The technicals are pointing toward an initial euro target of $1.3425"
- IG Markets (based on Bloomberg)
At the moment EUR/USD is headed toward a downtrend at 1.3520, after it has penetrated resistance at 1.3322.

EUR/JPY
"As people feel more sure about the world, they will put it back into the euro"
- Faros Trading (based on WSJ)
EUR/JPY currency pair is bullish. The initial target for the price lies at 108.46, while a subsequent goal is located at 109.64 (55 week ma).

GBP/USD
"The [BoE meeting] minutes were much more dovish, it seems likely the BoE will do more QE now"
- Danske Bank (based on Reuters)
Presently rally of the Cable, which commenced at 1.5645, is expected to prove to be short-lived.

USD/JPY
"We maintain our view that it [USD/JPY] will reach ¥85.0 by the end of the yearPresently rally of the Cable, which commenced at 1.5645, is expected to prove to be short-lived"
- Credit Agricole (based on Marketwatch)
Both near-term and long-term outlooks are bullish for USD/JPY. Levels at 80.17/79.97 and 79.85 provide sufficient support for the pair to challenge 80.41.

USD/CHF
"The [US] labor market is better, and a stronger labor market and stronger consumer spending go hand in hand"
- Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. (based on Bloomberg)
USD/CHF has closed below 0.9080/66 and may decline further, down to 0.8960 or even 0.8788/69 (200 day ma), as the bearish momentum seems rather strong.
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Expert Commentary
"We expect further movement of German economy into the positive area"
Lothar Hessler shared his view with Dukascopy on German economy. >>

"We anticipate the crude oil price to increase up to $120"
Filip Petersson on the price of crude oil and its impact on the EU economy. >>

"Portugal’s tough reforms and austerity measures may not be effective"
Ricardo Cabral on the situation in Portugal. >>
Press Review
Europe
Greek Parliament Approves Debt Swap Law
The Greek parliament passed on Thursday legislation to launch a debt swap for private bondholders which is at the core of the 130- billion-euro bailout agreed with euro zone partners this week.

USA
Jobless claims hold steady at 4-year low
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits last week held at the lowest level since the early days of the 2007-2009 recession, signaling that the battered labor market is healing.

Asia & Pacific
Yen Drops as Volatility at Three-Year Low Spurs Demand for Higher Yields
The yen declined versus all its major peers as foreign-exchange volatility at its lowest in more than three years prompted investors to buy higher-yielding currencies.
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
After appreciating by 0.6% until Feb 16 noon, the US Dollar’s value dropped to its initial level.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Current global economic outlook
Current and six-month global economic outlook improved modestly by 0.03 to 0.46 in January from December, according to a poll conducted by the Dukascopy Bank SA. Three-year global economic  outlook remains fairly positive with a mean value of 0.64, up 0.01 from December.
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Global Stock Market Review
S&P
S&P 500 index declined on Wednesday, pushed down by earnings reports and investor sentiment after gathering  news about weaker Chinese and European PMI data.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average index closed lower on Wednesday as investors remained cautious regarding long term stability of Greece and several companies released earnings reports.

FTSE 100
British FTSE 100 index traded higher on Thursday strongly affected by earnings reports.
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Precious metals rallied on Wednesday amid broadly weaker US Dollar and weak PMI data releases from the Euro Zone.
 
Industrial Metals
Industry metals were mixed on Wednesday amid weak industry data releases from the Euro Zone.
 
Energy
Energy commodities were mainly higher on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions continued to stimulate upward movement of the energy price.
 
Agriculture
Rural commodities, excluding coffee, advanced on Wednesday. 
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

 


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