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Dukascopy Forex Overview: 17-02-2012 - Morning

Dukascopy Bank analytic desk report
Published: 17/02/2012 10:57
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Ultimately the question is whether Greece has political will to sort out their economy and fulfill the [austerity] conditions"
- Jutta Urpilainen, Finnish Finance Minister
Greek government officials said bailout talks are in progress and that the country is willing accept more supervision, but rejected rumours that the bailout would be postponed until after April elections.


USD
"The job market is getting better and that's really key"
- Kevin Caron, market strategist at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits tumbled to 348 thousand in the week ended February 11 from 361 thousand the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.


GBP
"...a significant and sustained rise in consumer confidence remains unlikely in the near term"
- Mervyn King, Bank of England Governor.
U.K. consumer confidence rose in January as consumers became more optimistic on the outlook of the country’s economy, estimated the Nationwide Building Society. An index of sentiment rose to 47 from 38 in December.

CHF
"Opportunities in European equities remain attractive, both in more cyclical, as well as less economically sensitive areas"
- Luke Stellini, a product director at Invesco Perpetual
Swiss stocks rose on Thursday after a report showed U.S. unemployment claims declined and Nestle SA, the world's biggest food company, climbed on better than expected sales growth.

JPY
"Investors are irritated because Greek debt issues aren’t being decided"
- Naoteru Teraoka, general manager at Chuo Mitsui Asset Management Co.
Japanese stocks declined slightly on Thursday after a financial aid for Greece was postponed. Losses were limited as weak Yen boosted outlook for exporters.
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"There are forces within Europe that are playing with fire, they think not all the conditions might be met, and they may even want Greece outside the euro zone"
- Evangelos Venizelos, Greek FM (based on CNBC)
Despite current short-term rally which started at 1.2974 the bias remains bearish for EUR/USD. The initial target for the pair is located at 1.2891/54, while in the longer term the price should fall at least down to 1.2624.

EUR/JPY
"A bond swap is a way [the ECB] can save money and allow Greece's debt burden to be more manageable going forward"
- FXDD (based on WSJ)
Since EUR/JPY is underpinned by a rather strong support, it is expected to maintain its current course to the upside. Resistance located at 104.30 should fall a victim first, followed by 107.52 (200 ma).

GBP/USD
"Our economists are sticking with a 50 billion pound extension [of QE by BoE] in August"
- RBS (based on Reuters)
Present rally is likely to be short-lived, since a tough resistance level situated at 1.5919 (200 day ma) should halt the pair’s bullish advancement. Therefore a support at 1.5603/1.5580 (55 day ma) is still being targeted.

USD/JPY
"The near-term seems awfully likely to take dollar/yen higher"
- Credit Suisse (based on CNBC)
Even though USD/JPY is facing a number of resistances at the moment - 79.17/20 (55 week ma), 79.55 and 80.00/25, the bias is nevertheless bullish. Supports at 78.43/29 and 78.04 should be able prevent any extensive dips.

USD/CHF
"In time the Swiss franc will have to move toward purchasing power parity against the euro. However, we’ve learned for now to live with a certain volatility"
- Waldemar Pawlak,Polish EM (based on Bloomberg)
USD/CHF did not manage to get a foothold above 0.9317/31 (55 day ma) and is now expected to pull back. Due to strong support provided by area at 0.9080/66 the pair is anticipated to retest 0.9317/31 before aiming for 0.9595.
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Expert Commentary
"We do not think that the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing is going to lead to a more significant depreciation of the Yen"
Danske Bank: USD/JPY at 78 at the end of Q1 and 77 in Q2. >>

"4Cast: Pound at 1.40-1.60 in 2012, Euro at around 1.10 by the end of the year"
The Pound showed an immediate reaction on the Moody’s negative outlook on the Euro area. >>

"Westpac: AUD/USD will be attempting to go back closer to parity"
I assume the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar are going to enjoy the hard correlation with each other. >>
Press Review
Europe
Greek government claims EU bailout deal is close
Hopes are rising that the European Union will agree a fresh €130bn (£108bn) bailout on Monday to save Greece from defaulting on its debts after politicians in Athens said they were close to a deal with their single currency partners.

USA
Proview Asks China Retailers to Ban IPads
Proview International Holdings Ltd. (334), which claims ownership of the iPad trademark in China, asked retailers to stop selling Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s tablet computer as the dispute between the two companies intensified.

Asia & Pacific
Obama, eyeing China, to boost export financing
President Barack Obama will stay focused on China on Friday with an announcement of streamlined financing for U.S. exporters that compete against foreign firms that are afforded "unfair advantages," White House officials said.
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Market Research
Currency Index & Volatility
The general trend of the American Dollar throughout the last five trading days was upward sloping. During the period of the first three days (Feb 8 - Feb 10) the currency has appreciated by 0.6%. The next two day the Greenback was even more bullish, as its value gained additional 0.6% across the market.
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Current global economic outlook
Current and six-month global economic outlook improved modestly by 0.03 to 0.46 in January from December, according to a poll conducted by the Dukascopy Bank SA. Three-year global economic  outlook remains fairly positive with a mean value of 0.64, up 0.01 from December.
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Global Stock Market Review
S&P
S&P 500 index traded notably lower on Wednesday after Fed meeting minutes squeezed hopes for an additional quantitative relieving. S&P 500 index lost 0.54% or 7.27 points and closed at 1,343.23.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index showed one of the weakest performances in 2012, dropping 0.76% or 97.33 points and settling at 12,780.95. Blue chip index fell on Fed meeting minutes amid speculations Euro-Zone officials might delay at least a slice of financial aid to Greece.

FTSE 100
British FTSE 100 index opened 0.7% lower on Thursday on news Moody's considers downgrading 114 financials including Barclays PLC and HSBC Holdings PLC amid new concerns over Greece.
Commodity Overview
Precious Metals
Palladium prices dropped on worries concerning Euro area debt situation, as well as China’s initiative to assist Euro area’s government investments. The prices plunged by 0.4% to $679.47 an ounce. Palladium futures for March delivery decreased by 05.% to $683.65 an ounce, having the longest collapse since last year’s October.
 
Industrial Metals
Copper prices dipped by 0.53% at LME and by 0.50% at MCX. The prices may gain a minor support as Philippines have announced about constricting mining rules which could result in the intensification in future cost of production.
 
Energy
Natural gas futures for March delivery were traded at $2.466 per million British thermal units on New York Mercantile Exchange. Recent reports demonstrate a fall in US natural gas inventories by less than expected 78 billion cubic feet.
 
Agriculture
Corn prices are on the upside of a neutral/slight downward channel. Corn’s tie with wheat has slightly eased, and has returned in the region of 0.8 after reaching 0.92 in mid-January. 
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Disclaimer:
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy Bank SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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